Skip to main content
×
Home
    • Aa
    • Aa

Bets on Hats: On Dutch Books Against Groups, Degrees of Belief as Betting Rates, and Group-Reflection

Abstract
Abstract

The Story of the Hats is a puzzle in social epistemology. It describes a situation in which a group of rational agents with common priors and common goals seems vulnerable to a Dutch book if they are exposed to different information and make decisions independently. Situations in which this happens involve violations of what might be called the Group-Reflection Principle. As it turns out, the Dutch book is flawed. It is based on the betting interpretation of the subjective probabilities, but ignores the fact that this interpretation disregards strategic considerations that might influence betting behavior. A lesson to be learned concerns the interpretation of probabilities in terms of fair bets and, more generally, the role of strategic considerations in epistemic contexts. Another lesson concerns Group-Reflection, which in its unrestricted form is highly counter-intuitive. We consider how this principle of social epistemology should be re-formulated so as to make it tenable.

Copyright
Linked references
Hide All

This list contains references from the content that can be linked to their source. For a full set of references and notes please see the PDF or HTML where available.

L. Bovens 1995. “P and I Will Believe that not-P’: Diachronic Constraints on Rational Belief.Mind 104: 737–60.

L. Bovens and W. Rabinowicz . 2010. “The Puzzle of the Hats.Synthese 172: 5778.

D. Christensen 1991. “Clever Bookies and Coherent Beliefs.The Philosophical Review 100: 229–47.

R. Selten 1975. “A Reexamination of the Perfectness Concept for Equilibrium Points in Extensive Games.International Journal of Game Theory 4: 2555.

B. van Fraassen 1984. “Belief and the Will.Journal of Philosophy 81: 235–56.

Recommend this journal

Email your librarian or administrator to recommend adding this journal to your organisation's collection.

Episteme
  • ISSN: 1742-3600
  • EISSN: 1750-0117
  • URL: /core/journals/episteme
Please enter your name
Please enter a valid email address
Who would you like to send this to? *
×

Metrics

Full text views

Total number of HTML views: 0
Total number of PDF views: 5 *
Loading metrics...

Abstract views

Total abstract views: 67 *
Loading metrics...

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between September 2016 - 29th March 2017. This data will be updated every 24 hours.