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Published online by Cambridge University Press: 31 July 2019
The emergence of new nuclear aspirants has posed a great threat to the post-Cold War global non-proliferation regime. These states have adopted a nuclear hedging strategy that has been deemed both strategically risky and politically difficult to maintain. Yet, hedging has not automatically resulted in nuclearisation. We analyse the conditions under which a nuclear hedger shifts its nuclear policy towards one of restraint. Drawing insights from prospect theory, we argue that a nuclear policy shift occurs when a nuclear hedger gains an asymmetric leverage vis-à-vis its adversary. Specifically, a hedging strategy that is based on loss aversion will only be abandoned when a shift in the nuclear aspirant's reference point occurs during negotiations. To test our theoretical arguments, we conduct an in-depth case study of North Korea's nuclear policies throughout the 1990s and 2000s. The empirical study of the changes in North Korea's negotiating stance during the Agreed Framework negotiations and the Six-Party Talks supports our asymmetric leverage thesis. We conclude with broad policy implications for the non-proliferation regime.
1 Nuclear aspirants, broadly, are states that have ‘considered, developed, abandoned, or acquired nuclear weapons programs’, especially after the establishment of the Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT). Solingen, Etel, Nuclear Logics: Contrasting Paths in East Asia and the Middle East (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2007), p. 3Google Scholar. On the cases and costs of proliferation, see Juneau, Thomas and Razavi, Sam, ‘Costly gains: a cost-benefit assessment of Iran's nuclear program’, The Nonproliferation Review, 25:1–2 (2018), pp. 69–86CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Jervis, Robert, The Meaning of the Nuclear Revolution: Statecraft and the Prospect of Armageddon (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1989), p. 3Google Scholar; Miller, Nicholas L., ‘The secret success of nonproliferation sanctions’, International Organization, 68:4 (2014), pp. 913–44CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Narang, Vipin, ‘Strategies of nuclear proliferation: How states pursue the bomb’, International Security, 41:3 (2016/17), p. 120Google Scholar; and Levite, Ariel E., ‘Never say never again: Nuclear reversal revisited’, International Security, 27:3 (2002/03), p. 62Google Scholar.
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9 See, for example, Olivia Enos, ‘After Failed Summit in Hanoi: Where Do We Go from Here?’, The Heritage Foundation, available at: {https://www.heritage.org/asia/commentary/after-failed-summit-hanoi-where-do-we- go-here} accessed 15 April 2019; Dennis P. Halpin, ‘Almost a month on, what did the Singapore summit achieve?’, NK News, available at: {https://www.nknews.org/2018/07/almost-a-month-on-what-did-the-singapore-summit-achieve/} accessed 15 April 2019; Jonathan Marcus, ‘Trump Kim summit: What did it actually achieve?’, BBC, available at: {https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-44484322} accessed 15 April 2019; and Daniel R. Russel, ‘A historic breakthrough or a historic blunder in Singapore?’, Foreign Affairs, available at: {https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/north-korea/2018-06-12/historic-breakthrough-or-historic-blunder-singapore} accessed 15 April 2019.
10 Joshua Berlinger and Hilary Whiteman, ‘The pledge to halt missile tests comes after a busy year of launches by North Korea’, CNN, available at: {https://www.cnn.com/2018/03/06/asia/north-korea-missile-tests-2017-intl/index.html} accessed 13 April 2019.
11 Justin McCurry, ‘North Korea halts nuclear and missile tests ahead of planned Trump summit’, The Guardian, available at: {https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/apr/20/north-korea-suspends-nuclear-missile-tests} accessed 26 July 2018; ‘North Korea begins dismantling key facilities at the Sohae Satellite Launching Station’, 38 North, available at: {https://www.38north.org/2018/07/sohae072318/} accessed 26 July 2018.
12 Siegfried S. Hecker, ‘Why insisting on a North Korea nuclear declaration up front is a big mistake’, 38 North, available at: {https://www.38north.org/2018/11/shecker112818/} accessed 13 April 2019.
13 Brunnstrom, ‘North Korea may have made more nuclear bombs’.
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34 Following Levite, we adopt a broad definition of nuclear hedging. Levite, ‘Never say never again’, p. 70.
35 Nuclear reversal may be ‘fraught with political risks’ due to the need ‘to address the security, prestige, and bureaucratic appeal of a nuclear program’. Hence, nuclear reversal hardly progresses immediately towards rollback or proceeds in a smooth linear manner since states must manage domestic resistance and other risks associated with it. Levite, ‘Never say never again’, pp. 67, 74–5. For more examples on how states have used hedging or the like to minimise risks or maximise leverage, see Hersman and Peters, ‘Nuclear U-turns’, pp. 539–53; and Volpe, ‘Atomic leverage’, pp. 517–44.
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40 Given that we adopt a broad definition of hedging, we acknowledge that there are other causal pathways to nuclear restraint. We identify a key causal pathway that is in accordance with loss aversion.
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102 Kelsey Davenport, ‘Chronology of U.S.-North Korean Nuclear and Missile Diplomacy’, Arms Control Association, available at: {https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/dprkchron#2008} accessed 14 August 2018.
103 Martin, Curtis H., ‘Lessons of the Agreed Framework for using engagement as a nonproliferation tool’, The Nonproliferation Review, 6:4 (1999), p. 44CrossRefGoogle Scholar; ‘Korea Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO)’, Nuclear Threat Initiative, available at: {http://www.nti.org/learn/treaties-and-regimes/korean-peninsula-energy-development-organization-kedo/} accessed 12 April 2017.
104 ‘H.Amdt.324 to H.R.2415’, Library of Congress, available at: {https://www.congress.gov/amendment/106th-congress/house-amendment/324} accessed 9 January 2018; Charles Kartman, Robert Carlin, and Joel Wit, ‘A History of KEDO 1994–2006’, Center for International Security and Cooperation (June 2012), p. 12, available at: {https://fsi-live.s3.us-west-1.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/A_History_of_KEDO-1.pdf} accessed 9 January 2018; Jeffrey Lewis, ‘Revisiting the Agreed Framework’, 38 North, available at: {http://www.38north.org/2015/05/jlewis051415/} accessed 9 January 2018; Martin, ‘Lessons of the Agreed Framework’, p. 44.
105 ‘Korea Peninsula Energy Development Organization (KEDO)’, Nuclear Threat Initiative; Pollack, No Exit, pp. 136–7.
106 Pritchard, Charles L., Failed Diplomacy: The Tragic Story of How North Korea Got the Bomb (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2007), pp. 2–3Google Scholar; Snyder, Scott, ‘U.S.-North Korean negotiating behavior and the Six-Party Talks’, in Joo, Seung-ho and Kwak, Tae-Hwan (eds), North Korea's Second Nuclear Crisis and Northeast Asian Security (Hampshire: Ashgate, 2007), p. 152Google Scholar; Pollack, No Exit, p. 131.
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109 Moon, Chung-in and Bae, Jong-Yun, ‘The Bush Doctrine and the North Korean nuclear crisis’, in Gurtov, Melvin and Van Ness, Peter (eds), Confronting the Bush Doctrine: Critical Views from the Asia-Pacific (London: Routledge, 2004), p. 40Google Scholar; Edward A. Olsen, ‘The Bush administration and North Korea's nuclear policy’, in Joo and Kwak (eds), North Korea's Second Nuclear Crisis and Northeast Asian Security, pp. 45–64; Jackson, Rival Reputations, pp. 160-1; Cha, Victor, The Impossible State: North Korea, Past and Present (London: Bodley Head, 2012), p. 255Google Scholar.
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117 Dae-Kyu Yoon, ‘Issues and Expectations for the 2nd Round of Six-Party Talks’, The Institute for Far Eastern Studies, available at: {http://ifes.kyungnam.ac.kr/kor/PUB/PUB_0202V.aspx?code=FRM1010_000103} accessed 24 February 2014, emphasis added.
118 The Six-Party Talks took place over six rounds: preliminary trilateral (US-China-DPRK) talks (23–5 April 2003); round 1 (27–9 August 2003); round 2 (25–8 February 2004); round 3 (23–6 June 2004); round 4 (26 July–7 August, 13–19 September 2005); and round 5 (session 1: 9–11 November 2005, session 2: 18–22 December 2006, and session 3: 8–13 February 2007). Pritchard, Failed Diplomacy, pp. 85–6.
119 Park, ‘Inside multilateralism’, p. 76.
120 Quote in Pritchard, Failed Diplomacy, p. 102. See also Hur, The Six-Party Talks on North Korea, p. 86.
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123 Cheney reportedly said: ‘I have been charged by the president with making sure that none of the tyrannies in the world are negotiated with. We don't negotiate with evil; we defeat it.’ Pritchard, Failed Diplomacy, pp. 103–05.
124 Martin, ‘G. W. Bush and North Korea’, p. 124. Prior to the start of negotiations in August 2003, State Secretary, Colin Powell, was the only one who signalled intentions to provide some form of security assurances that would be satisfactory to Pyongyang. Kurata, Hideya, ‘A conceptual analysis of the Six-Party Talks: Building peace through security assurances’, Asian Security, 3:1 (2007), p. 18CrossRefGoogle Scholar.
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129 Hur, The Six-Party Talks on North Korea, p. 98.
130 Kurata, ‘A conceptual analysis of the Six-Party Talks’, p. 23.
131 Pollack, No Exit, p. 148.
132 Snyder, ‘U.S.-North Korean negotiating behavior and the Six-Party Talks’, p. 156; Pritchard, Failed Diplomacy, p. 109; Pollack, No Exit, pp. 146–7.
133 Pritchard, Failed Diplomacy, p. 119; Cotton, ‘North Korea and the Six-Party process’, pp. 29–30.
134 Department of State, ‘Joint Statement of the Fourth Round of the Six-Party Talks’, available at: {https://www.state.gov/p/eap/regional/c15455.htm} accessed 2 July 2018.
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137 The spokesman further noted that ‘once US nuclear threats are removed and the US nuclear umbrella for South Korea disappears, we will not need nuclear weapons, … [but] as long as the United States hostile policy toward the DPRK and nuclear threats are not fundamentally eliminated, we will never give up our nuclear weapons first, not even in a hundred years’. Pollack, No Exit, p. 159, emphasis in original. See also Cotton, ‘North Korea and the Six-Party process’, p. 34.
138 Amanda Lilly, ‘Why the Six-Nation Talks?’, Washington Post, available at: {http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/06/18/AR2009061802560.html} accessed 27 June 2018.
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141 Mike Chinoy, ‘Bush on North Korea: Wrong again’, 38 North, available at: {https://www.38north.org/2010/11/bush-on-north-korea-wrong-again/} accessed 26 July 2018; Siegfried S. Hecker, Robert L. Carlin, and E. A. Serbin, ‘A Technical and Political History of North Korea's Nuclear Program Over the Past 26 Years’, Center for International Security and Cooperation, Stanford University, p. 7, available at: {https://fsi-live.s3.us-west-1.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/narrativescombinedfinv2.pdf} accessed 8 July 2018.
142 Kwak and Joo, ‘The U.S. financial sanctions against North Korea’, pp. 99–102.
143 Ibid., p. 103.
144 Martin, ‘G. W. Bush and North Korea’, p. 115.
145 Kim, The North Korean Nuclear Weapons Crisis, p. 113; Department of State, ‘Joint Statement of the Fourth Round of the Six-Party Talks’, available at: {https://www.state.gov/p/eap/regional/c15455.htm} accessed 2 July 2018.
146 ‘Status of the Six-Party Talks for the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula’, Hearing before the Committee on Foreign Relations, United States Senate, One Hundredth Tenth Congress, Second Session, pp. 6–7, available at: {http://www.gpoaccess.gov/congress/index.html} accessed 26 July 2018.
147 Moon Chung-in, ‘The Six Party Talks and Implications for a Northeast Asia Nuclear Weapons Free Zone’, NAPSNet Special Reports, available at: {https://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-special-reports/the-six-party-talks-and-implications-for-a-northeast-asia-nuclear-weapons-free-zone/} accessed 26 July 2018.
148 Christopher R. Hill, ‘North Korean Six-Party Talks and Implementation Activities’, US Department of State, available at: {https://2001-2009.state.gov/p/eap/rls/rm/2008/07/107590.htm} accessed 14 August 2018. Kelsey Davenport, ‘Chronology of U.S.-North Korean Nuclear and Missile Diplomacy’, Arms Control Association, available at: {https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/dprkchron#2008} accessed 14 August 2018.
149 Volpe, ‘The unraveling of North Korea's proliferation blackmail strategy’, p. 83.
150 Hecker, Carlin, and Serbin, ‘A Technical and Political History of North Korea's Nuclear Program Over the Past 26 Years’, pp. 7–8, 15.
151 Leon V. Sigal, ‘Lessons from the unhappy history of verification in North Korea’, 38 North, available at: {https://www.38north.org/2018/07/lsigal070918/} accessed 13 April 2019.
152 Lilly, ‘Why the Six-Nation Talks?’
153 ‘Status of the Six-Party Talks for the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula’, Hearing before the Committee on Foreign Relations, United States Senate, One Hundredth Tenth Congress, Second Session (6 February 2008), available at: {https://www.foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/020608_Transcript_Status%20of%20the%20SixParty%20Talks%20for%20Denuclearization%20of%20the%20Korean%20Peninsula.pdf} accessed 2 July 2018; Cha, The Impossible State, pp. 260–3.
154 Catherine Killough, ‘Trump should heed the lessons of past U.S.-North Korea talks’, The National Interest, available at: {https://nationalinterest.org/feature/trump-should-heed-lessons-past-us-north-korea-talks-45612} accessed 9 April 2019.
155 Park, ‘Inside multilateralism’, pp. 78–9; Cha, The Impossible State, p. 263; Moon, Chung-in, ‘The Six Party Talks and implications for peninsular and regional peace and security’, in Frank, Rudiger and Swenson-Wright, John (eds), Korea and East Asia: The Stony Road to Collective Security (Leiden: Brill, 2012), p. 231Google Scholar.
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158 Adam Mount and Ankit Panda, ‘North Korea is not denuclearizing’, The Atlantic, available at: {https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/04/north-korea-kim-jong-un-trump-nuclear-summit-weapons-missiles/558620/} accessed 8 July 2018; Leon V. Sigal, ‘Picking up the pieces from Hanoi’, 38 North, available at: {https://www.38north.org/2019/03/lsigal030519/} accessed 13 April 2019.
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