Skip to main content Accessibility help

Temporal dispersion of the emergence of intelligence: an inter-arrival time analysis

  • Thomas W. Hair (a1)

Many reasons for why extraterrestrial intelligences might avoid communications with our civilization have been proposed. One possible scenario is that all civilizations follow the lead of some particularly distinguished civilization. This paper will examine the impact the first successful civilization could have on all other subsequent civilizations within its sphere of influence and the ramifications of this as it relates to the Fermi Paradox. Monte Carlo simulation is used to map the inter-arrival times of early civilizations and to highlight the immense epochs of time that the earliest civilizations could have had the Galaxy to themselves.

Hide All
Adams, F.C. & Laughlin, G. (1997). Rev. Mod. Phys. 69, 337.
Ball, J.A. (1973). Icarus 19, 347.
Bracewell, R. (1982). Pre-emption of the Galaxy by the First Advanced Civilization, Pergmon Press, Oxford.
Bracewell, R. (1974). The Galactic Club: Intelligent Life in Outer Space, W.H. Freeman and Co., New York.
Clark, J.A. (2002). Gaining Ground: The Origin and Evolution of Tetrapods, Indiana University Press, Bloomington, IN.
Crawford, I.A. (2000). Sci. Am. July, 38.
Davies, P. (2010). The Eerie Silence. Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, New York.
Forgan, D. (2009). Int. J. Astrobiol. 8, 121.
Forgan, D. & Rice, K. (2010). Int. J. Astrobiol. 9, 73.
Freitas, R. (1980). J. Br. Interplanet. Soc. 33, 251.
Hart, M. (1975). Q. J. R. Astron. Soc. 16, 128.
Kardashev, N.S. (1964). Sov. Astron. 8, 217.
Lanzetta, K. et al. (2002). Astrophysics 570, 492.
Lineweaver, C.H. (2001). Icarus 151, 307.
Lineweaver, C.H., Fenner, Y. & Gibson, B. (2004). Science 303, 59.
Rogers, E. (2003). The Diffusion of Innovation, 5th edn.Free Press, New York.
Samland, M. & Gerhard, O.E. (2002). Astron. Astrophys. 399, 961.
Soter, S. (2005). Astrobiol. Mag. 17 Oct (Retrieved>).
Snyder, D.L. & Miller, M.I. (1991). Random Point Processes in Time and Space. Springer, Berlin.
Ward, P. & Brownlee, D. (2000). Rare Earth: Why Complex Life is Uncommon in the Universe. Springer, Berlin.
Recommend this journal

Email your librarian or administrator to recommend adding this journal to your organisation's collection.

International Journal of Astrobiology
  • ISSN: 1473-5504
  • EISSN: 1475-3006
  • URL: /core/journals/international-journal-of-astrobiology
Please enter your name
Please enter a valid email address
Who would you like to send this to? *



Altmetric attention score

Full text views

Total number of HTML views: 0
Total number of PDF views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

Abstract views

Total abstract views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between <date>. This data will be updated every 24 hours.

Usage data cannot currently be displayed