Skip to main content
    • Aa
    • Aa

Winning the Peace Locally: UN Peacekeeping and Local Conflict


It remains contested whether peacekeeping works. The impact of peacekeepers’ actions at the local subnational level for overall mission success has lately received critical attention. Local peacekeeping is expected to matter because it reassures local actors, deters resumption of armed hostilities, coerces parties to halt fighting, and makes commitment to agreements credible. Thus peacekeepers affect the relations between central and local elites and avoid the emergence of local power vacuums and areas of lawlessness. This study uses new subnational data on the deployment of United Nations peacekeepers. It uses matching and recursive bivariate probit models with exogenous variables for temporal and spatial variation to deal with possible nonrandom assignment of the treatment. We demonstrate that conflict episodes last for shorter periods when peacekeepers are deployed to conflict-prone locations inside a country, even with comparatively modest deployment. The effect of peacekeeping on the onset of local conflict is, however, less clear cut.

Linked references
Hide All

This list contains references from the content that can be linked to their source. For a full set of references and notes please see the PDF or HTML where available.

Raphael A. Auer 2013. Geography, Institutions, and the Making of Comparative Development. Journal of Economic Growth 18 (2):179215.

Séverine Autesserre . 2010. The Trouble with the Congo. New York: Cambridge University Press.

Nathaniel Beck , Kristian Skrede Gleditsch , and Kyle Beardsley . 2006. Space Is More Than Geography: Using Spatial Econometrics in the Study of Political Economy. International Studies Quarterly 50 (1):2744.

Nathaniel Beck , Jonathan N. Katz , and Richard Tucker . 1998. Taking Time Seriously: Time-Series-Cross-Section Analysis with a Binary Dependent Variable. American Journal of Political Science 42 (4):1260–88.

Alex Braithwaite . 2005. Location, Location, Location … Identifying Conflict Hot Spots. International Interactions 31 (3):251–72.

Halvard Buhaug . 2010. Dude, Where's My Conflict? LSG, Relative Strength, and the Location of Civil War. Conflict Management and Peace Science 27 (2):107–28.

David Card , and John DiNardo . 2000. Do Immigrant Inflows Lead to Native Outflows? American Economic Review 90 (2):360–67.

David B. Carter , and Curtis S. Signorino . 2010. Back to the Future: Modeling Time Dependence in Binary Data. Political Analysis 18 (3):271–92.

Stefano Costalli . 2013. Does Peacekeeping Work? A Disaggregated Analysis of Deployment and Violence Reduction in the Bosnian War. British Journal of Political Science 44 (2):357–80.

Han Dorussen , and Theodora-Ismene Gizelis . 2013. Into the Lion's Den: Local Responses to UN Peacekeeping. Journal of Peace Research 50 (6):691706.

Michael J. Gilligan , and Ernest J. Sergenti . 2008. Do UN Interventions Cause Peace? Using Matching to Improve Causal Inference. Quarterly Journal of Political Science 3 (2): 89122.

Johan Dittrich Hallberg . 2012. PRIO Conflict Site 1989–2008: A Geo-Referenced Dataset on Armed Conflict. Conflict Management and Peace Science 29 (2):219–32.

Håvard Hegre , Lisa Hultman , and Håvard Mokleiv Nygård . 2011. Simulating the Effect of Peacekeeping Operations 2010–2035. In Social Computing, Behavioral-Cultural Modeling and Prediction, edited by John Salerno , Shanchieh Jay Yang , Dana Nau , and Sun-Ki Chai , 325–32. Berlin: Springer-Verlag.

Lisa Hultman , Jacob Kathman , and Megan Shannon . 2014. Beyond Keeping Peace: United Nations Effectiveness in the Midst of Fighting. American Political Science Review 108 (4):737–53.

Stefano Iacus , Gary King , and Giuseppe Porro . 2011. Causal Inference Without Balance Checking: Coarsened Exact Matching. Political Analysis 20 (1):124.

Guido W. Imbenes 2015. Matching Methods in Practice: Three Examples. Journal of Human Resources 50 (2):373419.

Stathis N. Kalyvas 2006. The Logic of Violence in Civil War. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

Gangadharrao S. Maddala 1983. Limited-Dependent and Qualitative Variables in Econometrics. New York: Cambridge University Press.

Erik Melander . 2009. Selected to Go Where Murderers Lurk? The Preventive Effect of Peacekeeping on Mass Killings of Civilians. Conflict Management and Peace Science 26 (4):389406.

Neil J. Mitchell 2004. Agents of Atrocity: Leaders, Followers, and the Violation of Human Rights in Civil War. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.

John Mueller . 2003. Policing the Remnants of War. Journal of Peace Research 40 (5):507–18.

Desirée Nilsson . 2008. Partial Peace: Rebel Groups Inside and Outside of Civil War Settlements. Journal of Peace Research 45 (4):479–95.

Nicolas Pons-Vignon , and Henri-Bernard Solignac-Lecomte . 2004. Land, Violent Conflict and Development. OECD Development Centre Working Paper 233. Paris: OECD.

Robert Powell . 2004. Bargaining and Learning While Fighting. American Journal of Political Science 48 (2):344–61.

Andrea Ruggeri , Theodora-Ismene Gizelis , and Han Dorussen . 2013. Managing Mistrust: An Analysis of Cooperation with UN Peacekeeping in Africa. Journal of Conflict Resolution 57 (3):387409.

Nicholas Sambanis , and Michael Doyle . 2007. No Easy Choices: Estimating the Effects of the United Nations Peacekeeping. International Studies Quarterly 51 (1):217–26.

Ralph Sundberg , and Erik Melander . 2013. Introducing the UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset. Journal of Peace Research 50 (4):523–32.

Andreas Forø Tollefsen , Håvard Strand , and Halvard Buhaug . 2012. PRIO-GRID: A Unified Spatial Data Structure. Journal of Peace Research 49 (2):363–74.

James Wall Jr., and Daniel Druckman . 2003. Mediation in Peacekeeping Missions. Journal of Conflict Resolution 47 (5):693705.

Michael D. Ward , and Kristian Skrede Gleditsch . 2008. Spatial Regression Models. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.

Julian Wucherpfennig , Philipp Hunziker , and Lars-Erik Cederman . 2016. Who Inherits the State? Colonial Rule and Post-Colonial Conflict. American Journal of Political Science 60 (4):882–98.

Recommend this journal

Email your librarian or administrator to recommend adding this journal to your organisation's collection.

International Organization
  • ISSN: 0020-8183
  • EISSN: 1531-5088
  • URL: /core/journals/international-organization
Please enter your name
Please enter a valid email address
Who would you like to send this to? *
Type Description Title
Supplementary Materials

Ruggeri supplementary material

 Word (758 KB)
758 KB


Altmetric attention score

Full text views

Total number of HTML views: 35
Total number of PDF views: 630 *
Loading metrics...

Abstract views

Total abstract views: 1377 *
Loading metrics...

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between 21st November 2016 - 27th July 2017. This data will be updated every 24 hours.