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Ideas do not float freely: transnational coalitions, domestic structures, and the end of the cold war

  • Thomas Risse-Kappen (a1)

Abstract

Realist or liberal explanations for the end of the cold war cannot account for the specific content of the change in Soviet foreign policy or for Western responses to it. These theories need to be complemented by approaches that emphasize the interaction between international and domestic factors and that take seriously the proposition that ideas intervene between structural conditions and actors' interests. Some of the strategic prescriptions that informed the reconceptualization of Soviet security interests originated in the Western liberal internationalist community, which formed transnational networks with “new thinkers” in the former Soviet Union. These new ideas became causally consequential for the turnaround in Soviet foreign policy and also had an impact on American and German reactions to it. Even though transnational networks were active in Germany, the Soviet Union, and the United States, their success varied. Domestic structures like the nature of political institutions, state-society relations, and political culture determine the ability of transnational networks first, to gain access to a country's political system and second, to build “winning coalitions.” These differences in domestic structures can largely explain the variation in impact of the strategic prescriptions among the three countries.

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1. This article is part of a growing body of literature on the role of ideas in foreign policy. With regard to the former Soviet Union, see in particular Breslauer, George and Tetlock, Philip, eds., Learning in U.S. and Soviet Foreign Policy (Boulder, Colo.: Westview, 1991); Checkel, Jeff, “Ideas, Institutions, and the Gorbachev Foreign Policy Revolution,” World Politics 45 (01 1993), pp. 271300; Evangelista, Matthew, “Sources of Moderation in Soviet Security Policy,” in Tetlock, Philip and Jervis, Robert, eds., Behavior, Society and Nuclear War, vol. 2 (New York: Oxford University Press, 1991); Matthew Evangelista, Taming the Bear: Transnational Relations and the Demise of the Soviet Threat, forthcoming; Herman, Robert, “Soviet New Thinking: Ideas, Interests, and the Redefinition of Security,” Ph.D. diss., Cornell University, Ithaca, N.Y., in preparation; Mendelson, Sarah E., “Internal Battles and External Wars: Politics, Learning, and the Soviet Withdrawal from Afghanistan,” World Politics 45 (04 1993), pp. 327–60; Rey Koslowski and Friedrich V. Kratochwil, “Understanding Change in International Politics: The Soviet Empire's Demise and the International System,” and Janice G. Stein, “Political Learning by Doing: Gorbachev as Uncommitted Thinker and Motivated Learner,” both in this issue of International Organization; and Richard N. Lebow, “Why Do Leaders Seek Accommodation with Adversaries,” in Richard N. Lebow and Thomas Risse-Kappen, eds., International Relations Theory and the End of the Cold War, forthcoming. On ideas and foreign policy in general, see Adler, Emanuel, The Power of Ideology: The Quest of Technological Autonomy in Argentina and Brazil (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1987); Goldstein, Judith, “Ideas, Institutions, and American Trade Policy,” International Organization 42 (Winter 1988), pp. 179217; Goldstein, Judith and Keohane, Robert, eds., Ideas and Foreign Policy (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1993); Haas, Ernst, When Knowledge Is Power (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1990); Haas, Peter, ed., Knowledge, Power, and International Policy Coordination, special issue, International Organization 46 (Winter 1992); Odell, John, U.S. International Monetary Policy: Markets, Power, and Ideas as Sources of Change (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1982); and Sikkink, Kathryn, Ideas and Institutions: Developmentalism in Brazil and Argentina (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1991).

2. I use the term “common security” (in Russian, vseobshaia bezopasnost') throughout the article, even though Soviet/Russian and American authors frequently speak of “mutual security” (vzaimnaia bezopasnost') or “equal security” (bezopasnost' dlia vsekh). I do this for two reasons. First, each term refers to the same concept. Second, common security is the generic term for the concept as it was originally used in the German security debate (gemeinsame Sicherheit) and later in the Palme commission's report. See Independent Commission on Disarmament and Security Issues, Common Security: A Blueprint for Survival (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1982). On the various Russian terms, see Arbatov, Georgii, Zatianuvsheesia vysdorovlenie (1953–1988 gg.), Svidetel'stvo sovremennika (Moscow: Mezhdunarodnye otnosheniia, 1991), pp. 240–41 (This appeared in English as: The System: An Insider's Life in Soviet Politics [New York: Random House, 1992].). I thank Matt Evangelista for clarifying the Russian terms for me and for alerting me to Arbatov's book.

3. On epistemic communities, see P. Haas, Knowledge, Power, and International Policy Coordination; and E. Haas, When Knowledge Is Power. On transnational relations, see Keohane, Robert and Nye, Joseph, eds., Transnational Relations and World Politics (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1971).

4. The following discussion is based on Grunberg, Isabelle and Risse-Kappen, Thomas, “A Time of Reckoning? Theories of International Relations and the End of the Cold War,” in Allan, Pierre and Goldmann, Kjell, eds., The End of the Cold War: Evaluating Theories of International Relations (Dordrecht, Netherlands: Martinus Nijhoff Publishing, 1992), pp. 104–46.

5. Kenneth Oye, “Explaining the End of the Cold War: Morphological and Behavioral Adaptations to the Nuclear Peace,” in Lebow and Risse-Kappen, International Relations Theory and the End of the Cold War. For a critical discussion of this argument see Evangelista, Matthew, “Internal and External Constraints on Grand Strategy: The Soviet Case,” in Rosecrance, Richard and Stein, Arthur, eds., Beyond Realism: Domestic Factors and Grand Strategy (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, forthcoming).

6. Gilpin, Robert, War and Change in World Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1981).

7. For excellent surveys of strategies of reassurance see George, Alexander, “Strategies for Facilitating Cooperation,” in George, Alexander, Farley, Philip, and Dallin, Alexander, eds., U.S.-Soviet Security Cooperation (New York: Oxford University Press, 1988), pp. 692711; Lebow, Richard N. and Stein, Janice G., “Beyond Deterrence,” Journal of Social Issues 43 (Winter 1987), pp. 572; Stein, Janice, “Reassurance in International Conflict Management,” Political Science Quarterly 106 (Fall 1991), pp. 431–51.

8. See, for example, Gaddis, John Lewis, “Hanging Tough Paid Off,” Bulletin of Atomic Scientists 45 (01 1989), pp. 1114; d'Estaing, Valéry Giscard, Kissinger, Henry, and Nakasone, Yasuhiro, “East-West Relations,” Foreign Affairs 68 (Summer 1989), pp. 121, and especially pp. 8–9. See also Einhorn, Robert, Negotiating from Strength: Leverage in U.S.-Soviet Arms Control (New York: Praeger, 1985).

9. For empirical evidence see Chernoff, Fred, “Ending the Cold War: The Soviet Retreat and the U.S. Military Buildup,” International Affairs 67 (01 1991), pp. 111–26; Ted Hopf, “Peripheral Visions: Brezhnev and Gorbachev Meet the ‘Reagan Doctrine,’” in Breslauer and Tetlock, Learning in U.S. and Soviet Foreign Policy; Mendelson, “Internal Battles and External Wars”; and Risse-Kappen, Thomas, “Did ‘Peace Through Strength’ End the Cold War,” International Security 16 (Summer 1991), pp. 162–88. For a general discussion of Western leverage on the Soviet Union, see Snyder, Jack, “International Leverage on Soviet Domestic Change,” World Politics 42 (10 1989), pp. 130.

10. For evidence see Mendelson, , “Internal Battles and External Wars,” p. 334.

11. I am referring to West German enthusiasm for Gorbachev in 1987 and 1988, that is, two years before the Soviet leadership consented to German reunification.

12. For a similar point see Checkel, , “Ideas, Institutions, and the Gorbachev Foreign Policy Revolution,” pp. 274 and 279–80.

13. Waltz seems to acknowledge this point when he writes that “any theory of international politics requires also a theory of domestic politics.” See p. 331 of Waltz, Kenneth, “Reflections on Theory of International Politics: A Response to My Critics,” in Keohane, Robert, ed., Neorealism and Its Critics (New York: Columbia University Press, 1986), pp. 322–45. On the indeterminate nature of realism see also Robert Keohane, “Realism, Neorealism, and the Study of World Politics,” in ibid., pp. 1–26; Haggard, Stephen, “Structuralism and Its Critics: Recent Progress in International Relations Theory,” in Adler, Emanuel and Crawford, Beverly, eds., Progress in Postwar International Relations (New York: Columbia University Press, 1991); and Richard Ned Lebow, “The Long Peace, the End of the Cold War, and the Failure of Realism,” in this issue of International Organization.

14. For examples of efforts at systematizing liberal thinking in international relations, see Czempiel, Ernst-Otto, Friedensstrategien (Strategies for peace) (Paderborn, Germany: Schöningh, 1986); Keohane, Robert, “International Liberalism Reconsidered,” in Dunn, John, ed., The Economic Limits to Modern Politics (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1990), pp. 165–94; Moravesik, Andrew, “Liberalism and International Relations Theory,” working paper no. 92–6, Center for International Affairs, Harvard University, Cambridge, Mass., 1992; and Russett, Bruce, Grasping the Democratic Peace (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1993).

15. Deudney, Daniel and Ikenberry, G. John, “The International Sources of Soviet Change,” International Security 16 (Winter 19911992), pp. 74118; and Deudney, Daniel and Ikenberry, G. John, “Soviet Reform and the End of the Cold War: Explaining Large-scale Historical Change,” Review of International Studies 17 (Summer 1991), pp. 225–50. For a critique of the argument, see Mendelson, , “Internal Wars and External Battles,” pp. 330–31.

16. For an extreme version of this argument see Fukuyama, Francis, The End of History and the Last Man (New York: Free Press, 1991).

17. Grieco calls this perspective “neoliberal institutionalism,” while Jack Snyder uses the term “defensive realism.” See Grieco, Joseph M., “Anarchy and the Limits of Cooperation: A Realist Critique of the Newest Liberal Institutionalism,” International Organization 42 (Summer 1988), pp. 485507; and Jack Snyder, “Myths, Modernization, and the Post-Gorbachev World,” in Lebow and Risse-Kappen, International Relations Theory and the End of the Cold War. See also Oye, Kenneth W., ed., Cooperation Under Anarchy (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1986). This approach also influenced much of the original arms control literature. See, for example, Schelling, Thomas and Halperin, Morton, Strategy and Arms Control, 2d ed. (New York: Pergamon and Brassey, 1985); and Bull, Hedley, The Control of the Arms Race (London: Weidenfeld and Nicolson, 1961).

18. The bible of that approach is Independent Commission on Disarmament and Security Issues Common Security. See also Bahr, Egon, Was wird aus den Deutschen? (What will happen to the Germans?) (Reinbek, Germany: Rowohlt, 1982); and Lutz, Dieter S., ed., Gemeinsame Sicherheit (Common security), 2 vols. (Baden-Baden, Germany: Nomos, 1986).

19. For this argument see Snyder, “Myths, Modernization, and the Post-Gorbachev World.”

20. See Michael Doyle, “Liberalism and the End of the Cold War,” in Lebow and Risse-Kappen, International Relations Theory and the End of the Cold War; Doyle, Michael, “Liberalism and World Politics,” American Political Science Review 80 (12 1986), pp. 1151–69; and Russett, Grasping the Democratic Peace.

21. For the most recent data on the democratic peace see Russett, Grasping the Democratic Peace. See also the special issues of the Journal of Conflict Resolution 35 (06 1991) and of International Interactions 18 (02 1993); and Maoz, Zeev and Russett, Bruce, “Alliances, Contiguity, Wealth, and Political Stability: Is the Lack of Conflict Among Democracies a Statistical Artefact?International Interactions 17 (1992), pp. 245–67.

22. Compare Kant, Immanuel, “Zum Ewigen Frieden: Ein philosophischer Entwurf” [1795] (Perpetual peace: A philosophical sketch), in Weischedel, Wilhelm, ed., Immanuel Kant: Werke in sechs Bänden (Immanuel Kant: Works in six volumes), vol. 6 (Frankfurt: Insel-Verlag, 1964), pp. 193251.

23. See Evangelista, “Sources of Moderation in Soviet Security Policy”; Mendelson, “Internal Battles and External Wars”; Lebow, “Why Do Leaders Seek Accommodation With Adversaries?”; and Stein, “Political Learning by Doing.” See also Robert Legvold, “Soviet Learning in the 1980s,” in Breslauer and Tetlock, Learning in U.S. and Soviet Foreign Policy; and Snyder, Jack, “The Gorbachev Revolution: A Waning of Soviet Expansionism,” International Security 12 (Winter 19871988), pp. 93131.

24. See Gorbachev, M. S., “Speech in the British Parliament,” 18 12 1984, in Gorbachev, M. S., Speeches and Writings (Oxford: Pergamon Press, 1986), pp. 123–30; and Gorbachev, M. S., “Report to the Twenty-seventh Congress of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union,” 25 02 1986, in ibid., pp. 1–109. (In particular, see pp. 5–21 of the latter for an example of “old thinking,” which emphasized the world class struggle, and pp. 70–85 for a mix of “old” and “new thinking.”)

25. Shevardnadze is quoted in Checkel, , “Ideas, Institutions, and the Gorbachev Foreign Policy Revolution,” p. 294 (particularly footnote 78).

26. I hesitate to use the term “epistemic communities,” since Peter Haas's definition emphasizes policy-relevant knowledge and shared causal beliefs as their primary source of authority. While the intellectual community in the former Soviet Union shared certain knowledge claims about international politics, their internal consensus derived mostly from shared principled beliefs or values. To put it differently, their “knowledge claims” made sense only if one shared their values. Moreover, their “expertise and competence in a particular domain” was only “recognized” (another part of Haas's definition) when Gorbachev came into power and increasingly relied on their ideas. Finally, their competence remained contested in the Soviet domestic debate. On the definition of epistemic communities, see Haas, Peter, “Introduction: Epistemic Communities and International Policy Coordination,” in Haas, P., Knowledge, Power, and International Policy Coordination, pp. 135 and especially p. 3. For a discussion, see Keck, Margaret and Sikkink, Kathryn, “International Issue Networks in the Environment and Human Rights,” paper prepared for the seventeenth International Congress of the Latin American Studies Association, 24–27 09 1992, Los Angeles.

27. Checkel, “Ideas, Institutions, and the Gorbachev Foreign Policy Revolution.”

28. Keohane, Robert and Nye, Joseph, Power and Interdependence (Boston: Little, Brown, 1977).

29. Mendelson, “Internal Battles and External Wars.”

30. See Goldstein, Judith and Keohane, Robert, “Ideas and Foreign Policy: An Analytical Framework,” in Goldstein, and Keohane, , Ideas and Foreign Policy, pp. 330.

31. The quotation is from ibid., p. 3.

32. On the term “strategic prescription,” see Checkel, , “Ideas, Institutions, and the Gorbachev Foreign Policy Revolution,” p. 281. Strategic prescriptions contain both values (such as peace and security) and assumptions about causal relationships between ends and means. Thus, they do not fall neatly in one of the two categories of principled or causal beliefs identified by Goldstein and Keohane.

33. For the evolution of Soviet security thinking see Kull, Stephen, Burying Lenin: The Revolution in Soviet Ideology and Foreign Policy (Boulder, Colo.: Westview, 1992); and Lynch, Allen, Gorbachev's International Outlook: Intellectual Origins and Political Consequences, Institute for East-West Security Studies Occasional Paper no. 9 (Boulder, Colo.: Westview, 1989).

34. Checkel, , “Ideas, Institutions, and the Gorbachev Foreign Policy Revolution,” pp. 291–94.

35. For overviews see Adler, Emanuel, “The Emergence of Cooperation: National Epistemic Communities and the International Evolution of the Idea of Nuclear Arms Control,” in Haas, P., Knowledge, Power, and International Policy Coordination, pp. 101–45; Krell, Gert, “The Problems and Achievements of Arms Control,” Arms Control (12 1981), pp. 247–86.

36. On the domestic arms control debate during the Reagan administration see Caldwell, Dan, The Dynamics of Domestic Politics and Arms Control: The SALT II Treaty Debate (Columbia: University of South Carolina Press, 1991); Krepon, Michael, Arms Control in the Reagan Administration (Washington, D.C.: University Press of America, 1989); Kubbig, Bernd W., Amerikanische Rüstungskontrollpolitik: Die innergesellschaftlichen Auseinandersetzungen in der ersten Amtszeit Ronald Reagans (U.S. arms control policy: The domestic debates during Reagan's first term) (Frankfurt M.: Campus, 1988); Meyer, David, A Winter of Discontent: The Freeze and American Politics (New York: Praeger, 1990); and Schrag, Philip G., Listening for the Bomb: A Study in Nuclear Arms Control Verification (Boulder, Colo.: Westview, 1989).

37. On the German debate see Boutwell, Jeffrey, The German Nuclear Dilemma (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1990); and Risse-Kappen, Thomas, Die Krise der Sicherheitspolitik: Neuorientierungen und Entscheidungsprozesse im politischen System der Bundesrepublik Deutschland 1977–1984 (The crisis of security policy: New orientations and decision-making processes in the political system of the Federal Republic of Germany, 1977–1984) (Mainz, Germany: Grünewald Kaiser, 1988).

38. See p. 108 of Bahr, Egon, “Sozialdemokratische Sicherheitspolitik” (Social Democratic security policy), Die Neue Gesellschaft no. 2 (1983), pp. 105–10 (my translation and emphasis). See also Bahr, Was wird cms den Deutschen? Bahr, Egon, “Gemeinsame Sicherheit: Gedanken zur Entschärfung der nuklearen Konfrontation in Europa” (Common security: Thoughts on the de-escalation of the nuclear confrontation in Europe), Europa-Archiv 37 (1982), pp. 421–30; and Lutz, Gemeinsame Sicherheit.

39. For details see Risse-Kappen, , Die Krise der Sicherheitspolitik, pp. 110–18 and 152–71.

40. See, for example, Afheldt, Horst, Defensive Verteidigung (Defensive defense) (Reinbek, Germany: Rowohlt, 1983); Boserup, Anders and Mack, Andrew, Krieg ohne Waffen (War without weapons) (Reinbek, Germany: Rowohlt, 1974); Boserup, Anders, Foundations of Defensive Defense (New York: Macmillan, 1990); Muller, Bjorn, Non-offensive Defense: A Bibliography (Copenhagen: Center for Peace and Conflict Research, 1987); Muller, Bjorn, Common Security and Non-offensive Defense: A Neorealist Perspective (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner Publishing, 1992); Studiengruppe Alternative Sicherheitspolitik (Study Group on Alternative Security Policy) Strukturwandel der Verteidigung (Structural change of defense) (Opladen, Germany: Westdeutscher Verlag, 1984); Müller, Albrecht A.C. von, “Integrated Forward Defense,” manuscript, Starnberg, Germany, 1985. On the security dilemma see Jervis, Robert, “Cooperation Under the Security Dilemma,” World Politics 30 (01 1978), pp. 186214.

41. Evangelista, Taming the Bear; and Matthew Evangelista, “Transnational Relations, Domestic Structures, and Security Policy in the U.S.S.R. and Russia,” in Risse-Kappen, Bringing Transnational Relations Back In.

42. See Independent Commission on Disarmament and Security Issues, Common Security.

43. Arbatov, , The System, pp. 311–12. Milstein frequently published in Western journals. See, for example, Milstein, Mikhail, “Problems of the Inadmissability of Nuclear Conflict,” International Studies Quarterly 20 (03 1976), pp. 87103.

44. The most far-reaching agreement was the SPD–Polish Communist Party declaration entitled “Criteria and Measures for Establishing Confidence-Building Security Structures in Europe,” Warsaw, signed 2 February 1988. For details see Kux, Stephan, “Western Peace Research and Soviet Military Thought,” manuscript, Columbia University, New York, 20 04 1989.

45. On the history of Pugwash, see Rotblat, Joseph, Scientists in the Quest for Peace: A History of the Pugwash Conference (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1972).

46. For details, see Kux, “Western Peace Research and Soviet Military Thought”; and Evangelista, Matthew, “Transnational Alliances and Soviet Demilitarization,” paper prepared for the Council on Economic Priorities, 10 1990, manuscript pp. 3341. See also Boserup, Anders, “A Way to Undermine Hostility,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 44 (09 1988), pp. 1619. On the various Pugwash meetings, see Rotblat, Joseph and Valki, Laszlo, eds., Coexistence, Cooperation, and Common Security: Annals of Pugwash 1986 (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1988); and Rotblat, Joseph and Goldanskii, V.I., eds., Global Problems and Common Security: Annals of Pugwash 1988 (Berlin: Springer-Verlag, 1989).

47. For the initial Soviet reactions, see Tiedtke, Stephan, Abschreckung und ihre Alternatives Die sowjetische Sicht einer westlichen Debatte (Deterrence and its alternatives: The Soviet view of a Western debate) (Heidelberg, Germany: Forschungsstätte der Evangelischen Studiengemeinschaft, 1986).

48. Tracing the policy impact of transnational coalitions requires extensive data on decisionmaking processes in order to allow for causal inferences. Compared with these requirements, the evidence presented below still is not satisfactory. For further and more detailed studies see Evangelista, Taming the Bear; Evangelista, “Transnational Relations, Domestic Structures, and Security Policy in the U.S.S.R. and Russia”; and Herman, Soviet New Thinking.

49. Gorbachev, , “Report to the Twenty-Seventh Congress of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union,” pp. 71 and 74. For a more coherent and less ambiguous argument about common security see Gorbachev, Mikhail, Perestroika: New Thinking for Our Country and the World (New York: Harper and Row, 1987), pp. 140–44. For comprehensive analyses of the new Soviet thinking about security, see Kull, Burying Lenin; Garthoff, Raymond, Deterrence and the Revolution in Soviet Military Doctrine (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 1990); and Segbers, Klaus, Der sowjetische Systemwandel (The Soviet system change) (Frankfurt M.: Suhrkamp, 1989), pp. 299330.

50. See, for example, Independent Commission on Disarmament and Security Issues, Common Security, pp. 611.

51. Compare Gorbachev, , Perestroika, pp. 206–7; see also p. 196 regarding the Brandt commission on North–South issues.

52. Pravda, 6 April 1988, as quoted in Kux, , “Western Peace Research and Soviet Military Thought,” p. 13. See also Evangelista, , “Transnational Alliances and Soviet Demilitarization,” pp. 2931. As Georgii Arbatov put it: “We do not claim to have invented all the ideas of the new thinking. Some of them originated outside the Soviet Union with people such as Albert Einstein, Bertrand Russell, and Olof Palme. We are developing them, along with our own ideas, into a full program for international conduct.” See Cohen, Stephen F. and Heuvel, Katrina Vanden, eds., Voices of Glasnost (New York: W.W. Norton, 1989), p. 315.

53. Arbatov, , The System, p. 171.

54. See Arbatov, , The System, pp. 311–12; Checkel, , “Ideas, Institutions, and the Gorbachev Foreign Policy Revolution,” pp. 291–94; Mendelson, , “Internal Battles and External Wars,” p. 340; Lynch, , Gorbachev's International Outlook, pp. 5658; and Litherland, Pat, “Gorbachev and Arms Control: Civilian Experts and Soviet Policy,” Peace Research Report no. 12, University of Bradford, 11 1986. As regards Alexei Arbatov, see his book Lethal Frontiers: A Soviet View of Nuclear Strategy, Weapons, and Negotiations (New York: Praeger, 1988), which first appeared in Russian in 1984 and shows a superb knowledge of the American strategic debate.

55. Gorbachev, , Perestroika, pp. 142–43. See also his “Report to the Twenty-seventh Congress of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union,” p. 74.

56. For details of these arguments, see Garthoff, , Deterrence and the Revolution in Soviet Military Doctrine, pp. 149–85; Meyer, Stephen M., “The Sources and Prospects of Gorbachev's New Political Thinking on Security,” International Security 13 (Fall 1988), pp. 124–63; Phillips, R. Hyland and Sands, Jeffrey I., “Reasonable Sufficiency and Soviet Conventional Defense,” International Security 13 (Fall 1988), pp. 164–78; and Frank, Willard C. and Gillette, Philip S., eds., Soviet Military Doctrine from Lenin to Gorbachev, 1915–1991 (Westport, Conn.: Greenwood, 1992).

57. See, for example, Kokoshin, Andrei and Larionov, Valentin, “Confrontation of Conventional Forces in the Context of Ensuring Strategic Stability,” in Brauch, Hans Günter and Kennedy, Robert, eds., Alternative Conventional Defense Postures in the European Theater, vol. 2 (New York: Crane Russak, 1992), pp. 7182. The Russian original of this article first appeared in 1988. See also Kokoshin, Andrei, “Restructure Forces, Enhance Security,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 44 (09 1988), pp. 3538; Kokoshin, Andrei and Larionov, Valentin, Prevention of War: Doctrines, Concepts, Prospects (Moscow: Progress, 1991); and Valentin Larionov, “Soviet Military Doctrine: Past and Present,” in Frank, and Gillette, , Soviet Military Doctrine from Lenin to Gorbachev, pp. 301–19.

58. For details of these exchanges, see Evangelista, , “Transnational Alliances and Soviet Demilitarization,” pp. 3137.

59. Frank, and Gillette, , Soviet Military Doctrine from Lenin to Gorbachev, p. 397.

60. Other examples include arms control proposals on test ban negotiations and the ABM treaty (as indicated by Evangelista, “Transnational Relations, Domestic Structures, and Security Policy in the U.S.S.R. and Russia”) and ideas about the “common European home” and the Conference for Security and Cooperation in Europe. See Gorbachev, , Perestroika, pp. 194–98. I thank one of the anonymous reviewers for alerting me to this.

61. See Litherland, “Gorbachev and Arms Control: Civilian Experts and Soviet Policy”; Lynch, Gorbachev's International Outlook; and Zisk, Kimberley Martin, “Soviet Academic Theories on International Conflict and Negotiation: A Research Note,” Journal of Conflict Resolution 34 (12 1990), pp. 678–93.

62. What follows is rather sketchy. However, there are enough empirical analyses available to support the argument. For example, see the literature quoted above in footnote 36. See also Kubbig, Bernd W., Die militärische Eroberung des Weltraums (The military conquering of space), vol. 1 (Frankfurt M.: Campus, 1990). The best narratives of arms control under the Reagan and Bush administrations are Talbott, Strobe, Deadly Gambits (New York: Knopf, 1984); Talbott, Strobe, The Master of the Game (New York: Knopf, 1988); and Talbott, Strobe and Beschloss, Michael, At the Highest Levels (Boston: Little, Brown, 1993). See also Shultz's, George memoirs, Turmoil and Triumph (New York: Charles Scribner's Sons, 1993).

63. The best analysis of the freeze campaign is Meyer, A Winter of Discontent.

64. See Kubbig, Militärische Eroberung des Weltraums; and Garthoff, Raymond, Policy Versus the Law: The Reinterpretation of the ABM Treaty (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution, 1987).

65. For details on this case see Flournoy, Michèle, “The NRDC/SAS Test Ban Verification Project: A Controversial Excursion in Private Diplomacy,” manuscript, Washington, D.C., 1989; and Schrag, Listening for the Bomb. For a discussion of the Soviet involvement in these activities see Evangelista, “Transnational Relations, Domestic Structures, and Security Policy in the U.S.S.R. and Russia.”

66. The cautious and reactive U.S. approach to the revolutionary changes in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe is well-documented in Beschloss and Talbott, At the Highest Levels.

67. This discussion builds on my earlier work, in particular Die Krise der Sicherheitspolitik. See also Boutwell, The German Nuclear Dilemma; and Blechman, Barry and Fisher, Cathleen, The Silent Partner: West Germany and Arms Control (Cambridge, Mass.: Ballinger, 1988). On the evolution of European public opinion on security policy see Eichenberg, Richard, Public Opinion and National Security in Western Europe (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1989).

68. See, for example, Herf, Jeffrey, “War, Peace, and the Intellectuals: The Long March to the West German Peace Movement,” International Security 10 (Spring 1986), pp. 172200.

69. Details about this support can be found in Risse-Kappen, , Die Krise der Sicherheitspolitik, pp. 4389.

70. See Risse-Kappen, Thomas, The Zero Option: INF, West Germany, and Arms Control (Boulder, Colo.: Westview, 1988); and Talbott, Deadly Gambits.

71. See, for example, Katzenstein, Peter, ed., Between Power and Plenty (Madison: University of Wisconsin Press, 1978); Katzenstein, Peter, Small States in World Markets (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1984); Gourevitch, Peter, Politics in Hard Times (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1986); Ikenberry, G. John, Reasons of State: Oil Politics and the Capacities of the American Government (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1988); and Ikenberry, G. John, Lake, David, and Mastanduno, Michael, eds., The State and American Foreign Economic Policy (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1988). For examples of attempts to apply the approach to other issue-areas, see Barnett, Michael, “High Politics is Low Politics: The Domestic and Systemic Sources of Israeli Security Policy, 1967–1977,” World Politics 42 (07 1990), pp. 529–62; Evangelista, Matthew, Innovation and the Arms Race (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1988); Matthew Evangelista, “Domestic Structures and International Change,” in Michael Doyle and G. John Ikenberry, eds., New Thinking in International Relations Theory, forthcoming; and Risse-Kappen, Thomas, “Public Opinion, Domestic Structure, and Foreign Policy in Liberal Democracies,” World Politics 43 (07 1991), pp. 479512. For the following see also my “Introduction,” in Risse-Kappen, Bringing Transnational Relations Back In.

72. See, for example, March, James G. and Olsen, Johan P., Rediscovering Institutions: The Organizational Basis of Politics (New York: Free Press, 1989); Ikenberry, G. John, “Conclusion: An Institutional Approach to American Foreign Economic Policy,” in Ikenberry, G. John et al. , State and American Foreign Economic Policy, pp. 219–43; and Kratochwil, Friedrich, Rules, Norms, and Decisions (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1989). For various applications, see Katzenstein, Peter and Okawara, Nobuo, “Japan's National Security: Structures, Norms, and Politics,” International Security 17 (Spring 1993), pp. 84118; Katzenstein, Peter and Okawara, Nobuo, Japan's National Security: Structures, Norms, and Policy Responses in a Changing World (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1993); and Berger, Thomas, “From Sword to Chrysanthemum: Japan's Culture of Anti-militarism,” International Security 17 (Spring 1993), pp. 119–50.

73. It is thus important to distinguish between consensual ideas that are stable over time and those that are altered frequently and are promoted by specific groups. The strategic prescriptions discussed in this article are examples of the latter type of ideas. I thank John Odell and an anonymous reviewer for alerting me to this point.

74. See Evangelista, Innovation and the Arms Race; and Evangelista, “Transnational Relations, Domestic Structures, and Security Policy in the U.S.S.R. and Russia.”

75. A domestic structure approach explains why cognitive and learning theories are so widely used to explain the Gorbachev revolution. See Breslauer and Tetlock, Learning in U.S. and Soviet Foreign Policy; and Stein, “Political Learning by Doing.” For a similar point see Peterson, Sue, “Strategy and State Structure: The Domestic Politics of Crisis Bargaining,” Ph.D. diss., Columbia University, New York, 1993.

76. I owe the following argument to Steve Ropp.

77. Of course, U.S. autonomy is greater in national security affairs than in other issue-areas. But compared with the former Soviet state, the difference is still striking.

78. On the “cold war consensus” in the United States and its limits see Russett, Bruce, Controlling the Sword (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1990), chap. 3; and Wittkopf, Eugene, Faces of Internationalism: Public Opinion and American Foreign Policy (Durham, N.C.: Duke University Press, 1990).

79. See Katzenstein, Peter, Corporatism and Change (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1984); and Katzenstein, Peter, Policy and Politics in West Germany (Philadelphia: Temple University Press, 1989).

80. For a further evaluation of this approach see the chapters in Risse-Kappen, Bringing Transnational Relations Back In. See also Sikkink, Kathryn, “Human Rights, Principled Issue-Networks, and Sovereignty in Latin America,” International Organization 47 (Summer 1993), pp. 411–41.

81. See, for example, Checkel, “Ideas, Institutions, and the Gorbachev Foreign Policy Revolution”; Goldstein, “Ideas, Institutions, and American Trade Policy”; Goldstein and Keohane, Ideas and Foreign Policy; Odell, U.S. International Monetary Policy; and Sikkink, Ideas and Institutions.

82. Goldstein, and Keohane, , “Ideas and Foreign Policy: An Analytical Framework,” p. 26.

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