Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-dnltx Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-18T14:30:08.828Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The Price of Peace: Motivated Reasoning and Costly Signaling in International Relations

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 November 2019

Joshua D. Kertzer ,
Brian C. Rathbun  and
Nina Srinivasan Rathbun
Get access

Abstract

Canonical models of costly signaling in international relations (IR) tend to assume costly signals speak for themselves: a signal's costliness is typically understood to be a function of the signal, not the perceptions of the recipient. Integrating the study of signaling in IR with research on motivated skepticism and asymmetric updating from political psychology, we show that individuals’ tendencies to embrace information consistent with their overarching belief systems (and dismiss information inconsistent with it) has important implications for how signals are interpreted. We test our theory in the context of the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on Iran, combining two survey experiments fielded on members of the American mass public. We find patterns consistent with motivated skepticism: the individuals most likely to update their beliefs are those who need reassurance the least, such that costly signals cause polarization rather than convergence. Successful signaling therefore requires knowing something about the orientations of the signal's recipient.

Keywords

Motivated reasoningIran dealcostly signalingreassurancepolitical psychology
Type
Research Note
Information
International Organization , Volume 74 , Issue 1 , Winter 2020 , pp. 95 - 118
Copyright
Copyright © The IO Foundation 2019

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Albuyeh, Rod, and Paradis, Mark. 2018. Thawing Rivalries and Fading Friendships: An Experimental Approach to Rapprochement and Alienation. Political Psychology 39 (4):811–27.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Axelrod, Robert. 1984. The Evolution of Cooperation. Basic Books.Google Scholar
Baekgaard, Martin, Christensen, Julian, Dahlmann, Casper Mondrup, Mathiasen, Asbjørn, and Petersen, Niels Bjørn Grund. 2017. The Role of Evidence in Politics: Motivated Reasoning and Persuasion Among Politicians. British Journal of Political Science 49 (3):1117–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Booth, Ken, and Wheeler, Nicholas J.. 2007. The Security Dilemma: Fear, Cooperation, and Trust in World Politics. Springer.Google Scholar
Breslauer, George W., and Tetlock, Philip E., eds. 1991. Learning in US and Soviet Foreign Policy. Westview Press.Google Scholar
Carson, Austin, and Yarhi-Milo, Keren. 2017. Covert Communication: The Intelligibility and Credibility of Signaling in Secret. Security Studies 26 (1):124–56.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chittick, William O., Billingsley, Keith R., and Travis, Rick. 1995. A Three-Dimensional Model of American Foreign Policy Beliefs. International Studies Quarterly 39 (3):313–31.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, James D. 1994. Signaling Versus the Balance of Power and Interests: An Empirical Test of a Crisis Bargaining Model. Journal of Conflict Resolution 38 (2):236–69.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Glaser, Charles L. 2010. Rational Theory of International Politics: The Logic of Competition and Cooperation. Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gries, Peter Hays. 2014. The Politics of American Foreign Policy: How Ideology Divides Liberals and Conservatives Over Foreign Affairs. Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Herrmann, Richard K., and Fischerkeller, Michael P.. 1995. Beyond the Enemy Image and Spiral Model: Cognitive-Strategic Research After the Cold War. International Organization 49 (3):415–50.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hirshberg, Matthew S. 1993. The Self-Perpetuating National Self-Image: Cognitive Biases in Perceptions of International Interventions. Political Psychology 14 (1):77–98.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Holsti, Ole R., and Rosenau, James N.. 1988. The Domestic and Foreign Policy Beliefs of American Leaders. Journal of Conflict Resolution 32 (2):248–94.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hurwitz, Jon, and Peffley, Mark. 1987. How Are Foreign Policy Attitudes Structured? A Hierarchical Model. American Political Science Review 81 (4):1099–120.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Janoff-Bulman, Ronnie. 2009. To Provide–Protect: Motivational Bases of Political Liberalism and Conservatism. Psychological Inquiry 20 (2–3):120–28.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jervis, Robert. 1970. The Logic of Images in International Relations. Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Jervis, Robert. 1976. Perception and Misperception in International Politics. Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Jervis, Robert. 1978. Cooperation Under the Security Dilemma. World Politics 30 (2):167–214.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jervis, Robert. 2002. Signaling and Perception: Drawing Inferences and Projecting Images. In Political Psychology, edited by Monroe, K.R., 304–405. Erlbaum.Google Scholar
Jervis, Robert, Lebow, Richard Ned, and Stein, Janice Gross. 1989. Psychology and Deterrence. Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Jost, John T., Glaser, Jack, Kruglanski, Arie W., and Sulloway, Frank. 2003. Political Conservatism as Motivated Social Cognition. Psychological Bulletin 129 (3):339–75.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Keohane, Robert O. 1984. After Hegemony: Cooperation and Discord in the World Political Economy. Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Kertzer, Joshua D. 2016. Resolve in International Politics. Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Kertzer, Joshua D. 2017. Microfoundations in International Relations. Conflict Management and Peace Science 34 (1):81–97.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kertzer, Joshua D., Powers, Kathleen E., Rathbun, Brian C., and Iyer, Ravi. 2014. Moral Support: How Moral Values Shape Foreign Policy Attitudes. The Journal of Politics 76 (3):825–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kertzer, Joshua D., and Zeitzoff, Thomas. 2017. A Bottom-Up Theory of Public Opinion About Foreign Policy. American Journal of Political Science 61 (3):543–58.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Koremenos, Barbara, Lipson, Charles, and Snidal, Duncan. 2001. The Rational Design of International Institutions. International Organization 55 (4):761–99.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kunda, Ziva. 1990. The Case for Motivated Reasoning. Psychological Bulletin 108 (3):480–98.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Kydd, Andrew H. 2005. Trust and Mistrust in International Relations. Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lake, David A., and Powell, Robert. 1999. International Relations: A Strategic-Choice Approach. In Strategic Choice and International Relations, edited by Lake, David A. and Powell, Robert, 3–38. Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Mercer, Jonathan. 1996. Reputation and International Politics. Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Mercier, Hugo, and Sperber, Dan. 2011. Why Do Humans Reason? Arguments for an Argumentative Theory. Behavioral and Brain Sciences 34 (2):57–111.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Nincic, Miroslav, and Ramos, Jennifer M.. 2010. Ideological Structure and Foreign Policy Preferences. Journal of Political Ideologies 15 (2):119–41.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nyhan, Brendan, and Reifler, Jason. 2010. When Corrections Fail: The Persistence of Political Misperceptions. Political Behavior 32 (2):303–30.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Page, Benjamin I., and Shapiro, Robert Y.. 1992. The Rational Public: Fifty Years of Trends in Americans’ Policy Preferences. University of Chicago Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Quek, Kai. 2016. Are Costly Signals More Credible? Evidence of Sender-Receiver Gaps. Journal of Politics 78 (3):925–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rathbun, Brian C. 2011. Trust in International Cooperation: International Security Institutions, Domestic Politics and American Multilateralism. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rathbun, Brian C. 2014. Diplomacy's Value: Creating Security in 1920s Europe and the Contemporary Middle East. Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Rathbun, Brian C., Kertzer, Joshua D., Reifler, Jason, Goren, Paul, and Scotto, Thomas J.. 2016. Taking Foreign Policy Personally: Personal Values and Foreign Policy Attitudes. International Studies Quarterly 60 (1):124–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Redlawsk, David P. 2002. Hot Cognition or Cool Consideration? Testing the Effects of Motivated Reasoning on Political Decision Making. Journal of Politics 64 (4):1021–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schelling, Thomas C. 1966. Arms and Influence. Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Schultz, Kenneth A. 2001. Democracy and Coercive Diplomacy. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shifrinson, Joshua Iskowitz. 2019. A Signal Failure? The End of the Cold War, US Soviet Diplomacy, and Theories of Costly Signaling. Working paper.Google Scholar
Sunstein, Cass R.Bobadilla-Suarez, Sebastian, Lazzaro, Stephanie C., and Sharot, Tali. 2017. How People Update Beliefs About Climate Change: Good News and Bad News. Cornell Law Review 102 (6):1431–44.Google Scholar
Taber, Charles S., and Lodge, Milton. 2006. Motivated Skepticism in the Evaluation of Political Beliefs. American Journal of Political Science 50 (3):755–69.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tetlock, Philip E. 1983. Policy-Makers’ Images of International Conflict. Journal of Social Issues 39 (1):67–86.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tetlock, Philip E. 1998. Social Psychology and World Politics. Handbook of Social Psychology 4:868–914.Google Scholar
Wittkopf, Eugene R. 1990. Faces of Internationalism: Public Opinion and American Foreign Policy. Duke University Press.Google Scholar
Yarhi-Milo, Keren. 2014. Knowing the Adversary: Leaders, Intelligence, and Assessment of Intentions in International Relations. Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Yarhi-Milo, Keren, Kertzer, Joshua D., and Renshon, Jonathan. 2018. Tying Hands, Sinking Costs, and Leader Attributes. Journal of Conflict Resolution 62 (10):2150–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: File

Kertzer et al. supplementary material

Kertzer et al. supplementary material 1

Download Kertzer et al. supplementary material(File)
File 307 KB
Supplementary material: PDF

Kertzer et al. supplementary material

Kertzer et al. supplementary material 2

Download Kertzer et al. supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 3.3 MB