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Russian Invasion of Ukraine and Chinese Public Support for War

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  29 April 2024

Deniz Aksoy Open the ORCID record for Deniz Aksoy [Opens in a new window] ,
Ted Enamorado Open the ORCID record for Ted Enamorado [Opens in a new window]  and
Tony Zirui Yang Open the ORCID record for Tony Zirui Yang [Opens in a new window]
Deniz Aksoy
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, Washington University in St. Louis, USA
Ted Enamorado
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, Washington University in St. Louis, USA
Tony Zirui Yang*
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA; Nuffield College, University of Oxford, UK
*
*Corresponding author. Email: yangzirui@wustl.edu
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Abstract

This study examines how the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent Western responses influence Chinese public opinion on the use of force. Using two original, preregistered online survey experiments, first in June 2022 and then in June 2023, we show that the Russian invasion is associated with a modest but statistically significant increase in Chinese support for using military force in international affairs in general and against Taiwan in particular. However, information on Western military measures aiding Ukraine curbs the modest impact of the invasion. Such information is especially effective in reducing support for an outright military invasion of Taiwan. Causal mediation analyses reveal that the Russian invasion influences public opinion by inducing optimism regarding military success and pessimism regarding peaceful resolution of the conflict. These findings suggest that foreign military aggression and subsequent international countermeasures can sway domestic public opinion on using military force.

Keywords

Public opinionwarRussian invasion of UkraineChinaTaiwan
Type
Research Note
Information
International Organization , First View , pp. 1 - 20
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2024. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of The IO Foundation

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Aksoy et al. Dataset

Dataset

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/ALRWOJ
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