Skip to main content
×
×
Home

Stabilizing the Peace After Civil War: An Investigation of Some Key Variables

Abstract

In the wake of negotiated settlements to civil wars, one critical problem involves reassuring people who have been killing one another that conflict is not about to break out again, endangering people's lives. Those concerned with the success of negotiated settlements have debated how best to enhance the prospects of a stable peace. We address this question by exploring variables that may explain the longevity of negotiated peace settlements. These variables are divided into two categories—one tapping into the potential effects of the environment in which settlements are negotiated and another focusing on the impact of settlement arrangements. On the basis of our analysis of thirty-eight civil war settlements negotiated between 1945 and 1998 we identify the environmental factors and institutional choices that affect the short-term stability of the peace following civil war.

Copyright
References
Hide All
Beck Nathaniel, Katz Jonathan N., and Tucker Richard. 1998. Taking Time Seriously: Time-Series Cross-section Analysis with a Binary Dependent Variable. American Journal of Political Science 42 (4): 1260–88.
Box-Steffensmeier Janet M., and Jones Bradford S.. 1997. Time Is of the Essence: Event History Models in Political Science. American Journal of Political Science 41 (4):1414–61.
Bueno de Mesquita Bruce, and Siverson Randolph M.. 1995. War and the Survival of Political Leaders: A Comparative Study of Regime Types and Political Accountability. American Political Science Review 89 (4):841–55.
Coakley John. 1993. Introduction: The Territorial Management of Ethnic Conflict. In The Territorial Management of Ethnic Conflict, edited by Coakley John, 122. London: Frank Cass.
de Jonge Oudraat Chantal. 1996. The United Nations and Internal Conflict. In The International Dimensions of Internal Conflict, edited by Brown Michael E., 489535. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press.
Diamond Larry. 1993. Three Paradoxes of Democracy. In The Global Resurgence of Democracy, edited by Diamond Larry and Plattner Marc F., 95107. Baltimore, Md.: Johns Hopkins University Press.
Fearon James D., and Laitin David D.. 1996. Explaining Interethnic Cooperation. American Political Science Review 90 (4):715–35.
Fortna Virginia Page. 1998. Scraps of Paper? Agreements and the Durability of Peace. Unpublished manuscript, Stanford University, Stanford, Calif.
House Freedom. 1999. Annual Survey of Freedom Country Scores 1972–73 to 1998–99. New York: Freedom House.
Gasiorowski Mark J. 1996. An Overview of the Political Regime Change Dataset. Comparative Political Studies 29 (4):469–83.
Gurr Ted Robert. 1990. Ethnic Warfare and the Changing Priorities of Global Security. Mediterranean Quarterly 1 (1):8298.
Hampson Fen Osler. 1996. Nurturing Peace: Why Peace Settlements Succeed or Fail. Washington, D.C.: United States Institute of Peace Press.
Hannum Hurst. 1996. Autonomy, Sovereignty, and Self-Determination: The Accommodation of Conflicting Rights. Rev. ed. Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press.
Hardin Russell. 1995. One for All: The Logic of Group Conflict. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.
Harris Peter, and Reilly Ben, eds. 1998. Democracy and Deep-rooted Conflict: Options for Negotiators. Stockholm: International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance.
Hartzell Caroline A. 1999. Explaining the Stability of Negotiated Settlements to Intrastate Wars. Journal of Conflict Resolution 43 (1):322.
Hartzell Caroline, Mozaffar Shaheen, and Rothchild Donald. 1999. Negotiated Civil War Settlements and Post-conflict Governance: The Choice and Consequences of Institutional Design. Unpublished paper, Gettysburg College, Gettysburg, Penn.
Heintze Hans-Joachim. 1997. Autonomy and Protection of Minorities Under International Law. In Federalism Against Ethnicity? Institutional, Legal, and Democratic Instruments to Prevent Violent Minority Conflicts, edited by Bachler Gunther, 8192. Zurich: Verlag Ruegger.
Horowitz Donald L. 1985. Ethnic Groups in Conflict. Berkeley: University of California Press.
Huntington Samuel P. 1968. Political Order in Changing Societies. New Haven, Conn.: Yale University Press.
Jaggers Keith, and Gurr Ted Robert. 1995. Tracking Democracy's Third Wave with the Polity III Data. Journal of Peace Research 32 (4):469–82.
Keesing's Contemporary Archives. Various years. Bath: Langman Group.
Kaufmann Chaim. 1996. Intervention in Ethnic and Ideological Civil Wars: Why One Can Be Done and the Other Can't. Security Studies 6 (1):62103.
Lake David A., and Rothchild Donald. 1996. Containing Fear: The Origins and Management of Ethnic Conflict. International Security 21 (2):4175.
Lake David A., and Rothchild Donald. 1999. Political Decentralization and the Durability of Civil War Settlements. Paper presented at the IGCC Conference on Durable Peace Settlements, 7–8 May, La Jolla, Calif.
Lemarchand René. 2000. The Crisis in the Great Lakes. In Africa in World Politics: The African State System in Flux, 3d ed., edited by Harbeson John W. and Rothchild Donald, 324–52. Boulder: Westview.
Levine Alicia. 1996. Political Accommodation and the Prevention of Secessionist Violence. In The International Dimensions of Internal Conflict, edited by Brown Michael E., 311–40. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press.
Licklider Roy. 1993. How Civil Wars End: Questions and Methods. In Stopping the Killing: How Civil Wars End, edited by Licklider Roy, 319. New York: New York University Press.
Licklider Roy. 1995. The Consequences of Negotiated Settlements in Civil Wars, 1945–1993. American Political Science Review 89 (3):681–90.
Licklider Roy. 1999. False Hopes? Democracy and the Resumption of Civil War. Unpublished paper, Rutgers University, Rutgers, N.J.
Lijphart Arend. 1985. Power-Sharing in South Africa. Berkeley: University of California, Institute of International Studies.
Mason T. David, and Fett Patrick J.. 1996. How Civil Wars End: A Rational Choice Approach. Journal of Conflict Resolution 40 (4):546–68.
Mason T. David, Weingarten Joseph P. Jr and Fett Patrick J.. 1999. Win, Lose, or Draw: Predicting the Outcome of Civil Wars. Political Research Quarterly 52 (2):239–68.
Mozaffar Shaheen. 1998. Electoral Systems and Conflict Management in Africa: A Twenty-eight-state Comparison. In Elections and Conflict Resolution in Africa, edited by Sisk Timothy D. and Reynolds Andrew, 8198. Washington, D.C.: United States Institute of Peace Press.
Peceny Mark, and Stanley William. 2001. Liberal Social Reconstruction and the Resolution of Civil Wars in Central America. International Organization 55 (1):149–82.
Rothchild Donald. 1997. Managing Ethnic Conflict in Africa: Pressures and Incentives for Cooperation. Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution.
Rothchild Donald, and Hartzell Caroline. 1999. Security in Deeply Divided Societies: The Role of Territorial Autonomy. Nationalism and Ethnic Politics 5 (3):254–71.
Sisk Timothy D. 1996. Power Sharing and International Mediation in Ethnic Conflicts. Washington, D.C.: United States Institute of Peace Press.
Sivard Ruth Leger. 1996. World Military and Social Expenditures, 1996. 16th ed. Washington, D.C.: World Priorities.
Small Melvin, and Singer J. David. 1982. Resort to Arms: International and Civil Wars, 1816–1980. Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage.
Stedman Stephen John. 1991. Peacemaking in Civil War: International Mediation in Zimbabwe, 1974–1980. Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner.
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). Various years. SIPRI Yearbook: World Armaments and Disarmaments. Stockholm: Almquist and Wiksell.
Wallensteen Peter, and Sollenberg Margareta. 1997. Armed Conflicts, Conflict Termination and Peace Agreements, 1989–96. Journal of Peace Research 34 (3):339–58.
Walter Barbara F. 1997. The Critical Barrier to Civil War Settlement. International Organization 51 (3):335–64.
Walter Barbara F. 1999. Designing Transitions from Civil War: Demobilization, Democratization, and Commitments to Peace. International Security 24 (1):127–55.
Walter Barbara F., and Snyder Jack, eds. 1999. Civil Wars, Insecurity, and Intervention. New York: Columbia University Press.
Weiner Myron. 1978. Sons of the Soil: Migration and Ethnic Conflict in India. Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press.
Weiner Myron, and Katzenstein Mary Fainsod with Rao K. V. Narayana. 1981. India's Preferential Policies: Migrants, the Middle Classes, and Ethnic Equality. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.
Wilson Jane S. 1992. Turmoil in Assam. Studies in Conflict and Terrorism 15 (4):251–66.
Zartman I. William, and Touval Saadia. 1992. Mediation: The Role of Third-party Diplomacy and Informal Peacemaking. In Resolving Third World Conflict: Challenges for a New Era, edited by Brown Sheryl J. and Schraub Kimber M., 239–61. Washington, D.C.: United States Institute of Peace Press.
Recommend this journal

Email your librarian or administrator to recommend adding this journal to your organisation's collection.

International Organization
  • ISSN: 0020-8183
  • EISSN: 1531-5088
  • URL: /core/journals/international-organization
Please enter your name
Please enter a valid email address
Who would you like to send this to? *
×

Metrics

Full text views

Total number of HTML views: 0
Total number of PDF views: 489 *
Loading metrics...

Abstract views

Total abstract views: 1420 *
Loading metrics...

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between September 2016 - 23rd January 2018. This data will be updated every 24 hours.