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A five-year community-based longitudinal survival study of dementia in Beijing, China: a 10/66 Dementia Research Group population-based study

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 June 2010

Ying Wang ,
Yueqin Huang ,
Zhaorui Liu ,
Chuanjun Zhuo ,
Shuran Li  and
Martin Prince
Ying Wang
Affiliation:
Institute of Mental Health, Peking University, Beijing, China
Yueqin Huang*
Affiliation:
Institute of Mental Health, Peking University, Beijing, China
Zhaorui Liu
Affiliation:
Institute of Mental Health, Peking University, Beijing, China
Chuanjun Zhuo
Affiliation:
Institute of Mental Health, Peking University, Beijing, China
Shuran Li
Affiliation:
Institute of Mental Health, Peking University, Beijing, China
Martin Prince
Affiliation:
Section of Epidemiology, Health Services and Population Research, King's College London, U.K.
*
Correspondence should be addressed to: Professor Yueqin Huang, Institute of Mental Health, Peking University, No. 51 Hua Yuan Bei Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100191, China. Phone: +86 10 82802836; Fax: +86 10 82802836. Email: dengy@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn.
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Abstract

Background: Despite the magnitude of dementia, little research on survival duration and prognosis of dementia has been reported in developing countries. This study was conducted to investigate survival times, identify related prognostic factors and construct a prognostic index (PI) for community-based dementia patients in Beijing, China.

Methods: This study is part of the 10/66 Dementia Research Group study in China. One hundred and thirty-seven dementia patients identified by 10/66 dementia criteria among 2162 participants and 137 referent subjects matched by age and sex were followed up for five years.

Results: Ninety-one (66.4%) dementia patients and 51 (37.2%) referent subjects died during the 5-year follow-up (p < 0.01). The median survival time of dementia patients was 4.2 years (95% CI: 3.8–4.6). Severity of dementia (severe/mild, HR: 8.765, 95% CI: 4.436–17.163), substantial disability (HR: 5.503, 95% CI: 3.017–8.135), co-morbidity (HR: 4.149, 95% CI: 2.254–7.736) and age (HR: 1.079, 95% CI: 1.048–1.110) were independent predictors of survival for patients with dementia. Using the PI calculated for each dementia patient, all dementia patients were classified into three groups: low, medium and high risk groups. The median survival times of each group were 5.2 years, 4.4 years and 1.5 years (p < 0.01), respectively.

Conclusions: Survival times of community-based dementia patients were significantly shorter than those of referent subjects. Severity of dementia, substantial disability, co-morbidity and age were independent predictors of survival. The PI derived from the four predictors can stratify the mortality risk and predict life expectancy for community-dwelled dementia patients, although further validation is needed.

Keywords

dementiasurvival timeprognostic factorprognostic index
Type
Research Article
Information
International Psychogeriatrics , Volume 22 , Issue 5 , August 2010 , pp. 761 - 768
Copyright
Copyright © International Psychogeriatric Association 2010

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