Skip to main content
×
×
Home

Structural Change in Argentina, 1935–1960: The Role of Import Substitution and Factor Endowments

  • Dario Debowicz (a1) and Paul Segal (a2)
Abstract

This article investigates structural change in Argentina between 1935 and 1960, a period of rapid industrialization and of relative decline of the agricultural sector. We use a dynamic three-sector computable general equilibrium model of the period to analyze the effects of the policies of import-substituting industrialization (ISI), and changing factor endowments, on the structure of the economy. We find that the declining land-labor ratio was more important than ISI in explaining relative stagnation in agriculture. ISI gave a substantial boost to manufacturing, but primarily at the expense of non-traded services, rather than of agriculture.

Copyright
Footnotes
Hide All

The authors would like to thank Sudhir Anand, Tony Atkinson, Luis Beccaria, Ingrid Bleynat, Markus Eberhardt, Peter Neary, Kevin O'Rourke, Jonathan Temple, Sherman Robinson, Jeffrey Williamson, Adrian Wood, and two anonymous referees. Remaining errors are, as ever, the responsibility of the authors.

Footnotes
References
Hide All
Astorga, Pablo, Bergés, Ame R., and Fitz Gerald, Valpy. “Productivity Growth in Latin America During the Twentieth Century.” Discussion Papers in Economic and Social History, Number 52, University of Oxford, December 2003.
Banco Central de la Republica Argentina (BCRA). Sistema de cuentas del producto e ingreso de la Argentina, Volumen II. Buenos Aires: BCRA, 1975.
Banco Central de la Republica Argentina (BCRA). Series Historicas de Cuentras Nacionales de la Argentina. Buenos Aires: BCRA, 1976.
Barr, Kanyala J., Babcock, Bruce A., Carriquiry, Miguel, Nasser, Andre, and Harfuch, Leila. “Agricultural Land Elasticities in the United States and Brazil.” Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Iowa State University, Working Paper 10-WP 505, 2010, available online at http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/bitstream/58047/2/10-WP_505.pdf.
Breisinger, Clemens, Diao, Xinshen, and Thurlow, James. “Modeling Growth Options and Structural Change to Reach Middle Income Country Status: The Case of Ghana.” Economic Modelling 26 (2009): 514-25.
Bruton, Henry J. “A Reconsideration of Import Substitution.” Journal of Economic Literature 36, no. 2 (1998): 903-36.
Bunge, Alejandro E. Los problemas económicos del Presente. Buenos Aires: Editorial A. E. Bunge, 1920.
Coatsworth, John, and Williamson, Jeffrey. “Always Protectionist? Latin American Tariffs from Independence to Great Depression.” Journal of Latin American Studies 36, no. 2 (2004): 205-32.
Comité Nacional de Geografía. Anuario Geografico Argentino. Buenos Aires: Comité Nacional de Geografía, 1941.
Corden, W. M., and Neary, J. P.. “Booming Sector and De-Industrialisation in a Small Open Economy.” Economic Journal 92 (1982): 825-48.
Cortés Conde, Roberto. El Progreso Argentino. Buenos Aires: Editorial Sudamericana, 1979.
Cortés Conde, Roberto. La Economía Argentina en el Largo Plazo. Buenos Aires: Editorial Sudamericana, 1997.
Cortés Conde, Roberto. “The Vicissitudes of an Exporting Economy: Argentina 1875-1930.” In An Economic History of Twentieth-Century Latin America, Vol. 1, edited by Cárdenas, Enrique, Antonio Ocampo, José, and Thorpe, Rosemary, 265–98. New York: Palgrave, 2000.
Debowicz, Dario. Modelling Trade and Financial Liberalisation Effects for Argentina. D. Phil Thesis, Economics Department, University of Sussex, 2010.
Della Paolera, Gerardo, and Taylor, Alan M., eds. A New Economic History of Argentina. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2003.
Dervis, Kemal, de Melo, Jaime, and Robinson, Sherman. General Equilibrium Models for Development Policy. Washington, DC: The World Bank, 1982.
Díaz-Alejandro, Carlos. Essays on the Economic History of the Argentine Republic. London: Yale University Press, 1970.
Di Tella, Guido. “Criterios para una política de desarrollo industrial.” In Estrategias de industrializacíon para la Argentina, edited by Brodersohn, M., 433–65. Buenos Aires: Editorial del Instituto, 1970.
Di Tella, Guido, and Platt, D. C. H., eds. The Political Economy of Argentina, 1880-1946. Basingstoke: Macmillan, 1986.
Echevarria, Cristina. “Changes in Sectoral Composition with Economic Growth.” International Economic Review 38, no. 2 (1997): 431-52.
Economic Commission for Latin America (ECLA). Mimeographed Statistical Appendix to El Desarrollo Económico de la Argentina, 3 Vols. Mexico: ECLA, 1959.
Fitzgerald, E. V. K.ECLA and the Theory of Import Substituting Industrialization in Latin America.” In An Economic History of Twentieth-Century Latin America, Vol. 3, edited by Cárdenas, Enrique, Antonio Ocampo, José, and Thorpe, Rosemary, 5897. New York: Palgrave, 2000.
Gerchunoff, Pablo, and Llach, Juan J.. “Capitalismo industrial, desarrollo asociado y distribución del ingreso entre los dos gobiernos peronistas: 1950-1972.” Desarrollo Económico 15, no. 57 (1975): 354.
Gerchunoff, Pablo, and Llach, Lucas. El ciclo de la ilusión y el desencanto: un siglo de políticas económicas argentinas. Buenos Aires: Ariel, 2003.
Germani, Gino. “Mass Immigration and Modernization in Argentina.” Studies in Comparative International Development 2, no. 11 (1966): 165-82.
Haber, Stephen. “The Political Economy of Industrialization.” In The Cambridge Economic History of Latin America, Vol. II, edited by Bulmer-Thomas, Victor, Coatsworth, John H., and Cortés Conde, Roberto, 537–84. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2006.
Instituto de Estudios Económicos sobre la Realidad Argentina y Latinoamericana (IEERAL). “Estadísticas de la evolución económica de Argentina, 1913-1984.” Estudios, Year IX, no. 39, July/September (1986): 103–84.
Katz, Jorge, and Kosacoff, Bernardo. “Import-Substituting Industrialization in Argentina, 1940-1980: Its Achievements and Shortcomings.” In An Economic History of Twentieth-Century Latin America, Vol. 1, edited by Cárdenas, Enrique, Antonio Ocampo, José, and Thorpe, Rosemary, 282313. New York: Palgrave, 2000.
Kelley, Allen C., and Williamson, Jeffrey G.. “Modeling Economic Development and General Equilibrium Histories.” The American Economic Review 32, no. 2, Papers and Proceedings of the Eight-Fifth Annual Meeting of the American Economic Association (1973): 450-58.
Kongsamut, Piyabha, Rebelo, Sergio, and Xie, Danyang. “Beyond Balanced Growth.” Review of Economic Studies 68, no. 4 (2001): 869-82.
Lewis, W. A.Economic Development with Unlimited Supplies of Labour.” The Manchester School 22, no. 2 (1954): 139-91.
Maddison, Angus. Historical Statistics of the World Economy: 1-2008 AD. March 2010, downloaded 18 April 2013. http://www.ggdc.net/maddison/oriindex.htm.
Maurizio, Roxana. “Determinants of International Migration in Argentina: Differences Between European and Latin American Flows.” Universidad Nacional de General Sarmiento and CONICET, 2011. http://ssrn.com/abstract=1865872.
Meckl, Jürgen. “Structural Change and Generalized Balanced Growth.” Journal of Economics 77, no. 3 (2002): 241-66.
Ministerio de Agricultura. Censo Nacional Agropecuario 1937. Buenos Aires: Ministerio de Agricultura, 1937.
Mundlak, Yair, Cavallo, Domingo, and Domenech, Roberto. Agriculture and Economic Growth in Argentina, 1913-84. International Food Policy Research Institute Research Report 76, with Data Supplement. Washington: IFPRI, 1989.
O'Donnell, Guillermo. “State and Alliances in Argentina, 1956-1976.” Journal of Development Studies 1, no. 1 (1978): 333.
Prebisch, Raul. “Argentine Economic Policies Since the 1930s: Recollections.” In The Political Economy of Argentina, 1880-1946, edited by Di Tella, Guido and Platt, D.C.M., 133–53. New York: St. Martin's Press, 1986.
Schaffer, Mark E. “egranger: Engle-Granger (EG) and Augmented Engle-Granger (AEG) cointegration tests and 2-step ECM estimation,” 2010. Available online at http://ideas.repec.org/c/boc/bocode/s457210.html.
Scobie, James R. Revolution on the Pampas. Austin: University of Texas Press, 1964.
Secretaría de Agricultura, Ganadería, Pesca y Alimentos de la Nación (SAGPyA), data downloaded from http://www.sagpya.mecon.gov.ar/, May 2004.
Segal, Paul. Economic Structure and the Distribution of Income in Argentina, 1900-1973. D.Phil Thesis, Economics Department, University of Oxford, 2007.
Taylor, Alan M. “External Dependence, Demographic Burdens, and Argentine Economic Decline After the Belle Epoque.” The Journal of Economic History 52, no. 4 (1992): 907-36.
Taylor, Alan M. “Peopling the Pampa: On the Impact of Mass Migration to the River Plate, 1870-1914.” Explorations in Economic History 34, no. $$ (1995): 100-32.
Temple, Jonathan. “Dual Economy Models: A Primer for Growth Economists.” The Manchester School 73, no. 4, Special Issue (2005): 435-78.
Thurlow, James. “A Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model for South Africa: Extending the Static IFPRI Model.” Working Paper 1-2004. TIPS, 2004. Available online at http://www.tips.org.za/files/707.pdf.
United Nations Yearbook of International Trade Statistics, various years.
Recommend this journal

Email your librarian or administrator to recommend adding this journal to your organisation's collection.

The Journal of Economic History
  • ISSN: 0022-0507
  • EISSN: 1471-6372
  • URL: /core/journals/journal-of-economic-history
Please enter your name
Please enter a valid email address
Who would you like to send this to? *
×

Metrics

Altmetric attention score

Full text views

Total number of HTML views: 0
Total number of PDF views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

Abstract views

Total abstract views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between <date>. This data will be updated every 24 hours.

Usage data cannot currently be displayed