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Imputing Expected Security Returns from Portfolio Composition

  • William F. Sharpe

The normative procedures of Markowitz [4], Sharpe [6], and others can be utilized to determine an optimal portfolio (set of security holdings) given estimates of risk, relevant constraints, and expected returns on securities. Building on these foundations, the positive models of Sharpe [7], Lintner [3], Mossin [5], and others assume that investors form portfolios as if they were following such procedures. We observe considerable differences in portfolio composition, some of which undoubtedly stem from differences in expectations. Yet the predictions of most investors are either made implicitly or, if made explicitly, are jealously guarded and hence cannot be observed by outsiders.

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[1]Beja, Avraham. “On Systematic and Unsystematic Components of Risk.” Journal of finance, March 1972.
[2]Fama, Eugene F.Risk, Return and Equilibrium, Some Clarifying Comments.” Journal of finance, March 1968.
[3]Lintner, John.The Valuation of Risk Assets and the Selection of Risky Investments in Stock Portfolios and Capital Budgets.” Review of Economics and Statistics, February 1965.
[4]Markowitz, Harry. Portfolio Selection: Efficient Diversification of Investments. New York: John Wiley and Sons, Inc., 1959.
[5]Mossin, Jan. “Equilibrium in a Capital Asset Market.” Econometrica, October 1966.
[6]Sharpe, William F.A Simplified Model for Portfolio Analysis.” Management Science, January 1963.
[7]Sharpe, William F.Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium under Conditions of Risk.” Journal of Finance, September 1964.
[8]Treynor, Jack L., and Black, Fischer. “How to Use Security Analysis to Improve Portfolio Selection.” Journal of Business, January 1973.
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Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis
  • ISSN: 0022-1090
  • EISSN: 1756-6916
  • URL: /core/journals/journal-of-financial-and-quantitative-analysis
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