Predicting segregation of granular materials composed of different-sized particles is a challenging problem. In this paper, we develop and implement a theoretical model that captures the interplay between advection, segregation and diffusion in size bidisperse granular materials. The fluxes associated with these three driving factors depend on the underlying kinematics, whose characteristics play key roles in determining particle segregation configurations. Unlike previous models for segregation, our model uses parameters based on kinematic measures from discrete element method simulations instead of arbitrarily adjustable fitting parameters, and it achieves excellent quantitative agreement with both experimental and simulation results when applied to quasi-two-dimensional bounded heaps. The model yields two dimensionless control parameters, both of which are only functions of control parameters (feed rate, particle sizes, and system size) and kinematic parameters (diffusion coefficient, flowing layer depth, and percolation velocity). The Péclet number,
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