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Published online by Cambridge University Press: 03 November 2025

Transonic buffet is a complex and strongly nonlinear unstable flow sensitive to variations in the incoming flow state. This poses great challenges for establishing accurate-enough reduced-order models, limiting the application of model-based control strategies in transonic buffet control problems. To address these challenges, this paper presents a time-variant modelling approach that incorporates rolling sampling, recursive parameter updating and inner iteration strategies under dynamic incoming flow conditions. The results demonstrate that this method successfully overcomes the difficulty in designing appropriate training signals and obtaining unstable steady base flow. Additionally, it improves the global predictive capability and identification efficiency of linear models for nonlinear flow-system responses by more than one order of magnitude. Furthermore, two adaptive control strategies – minimum variance control and generalised predictive control – are validated as effective based on the time-variant reduced-order model through numerical simulations of the transonic buffet flow over the NACA 0012 aerofoil. The adaptive controllers effectively regulate the unstable eigenvalues of the flow system, achieving the desired control outcomes. They ensure that the shock wave buffet phenomenon does not recur after control is applied, and that the actuator deflection, specifically the trailing-edge flap, returns to zero. Moreover, the control results further confirm the global instability essence of transonic buffet flow from a control perspective, thereby deepening the cognition of this nonlinear unstable flow.