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Predicting extinction of mammals in the Brazilian Amazon

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  06 May 2005

Carlos Eduardo Viveiros Grelle
Carlos Eduardo Viveiros Grelle
Affiliation:
Current address: Laboratório de Vertebrados, Departamento de Ecologia – UFRJ, CP 68020, 21941-590 Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil. Laboratório de Zoologia de Vertebrados, Setor de Zoologia, DBAV, IBRAG, UERJ, Av. Säo Francisco Xavier, 524 Maracanä, 20559-900 – Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil. E-mail grellece@biologia.ufrj.br
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Abstract

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Using the species-area correlation I predicted the percentage of endemic Amazonian mammals committed to extinction by 2020 as an outcome of deforestation resulting from the implementation of mega-infrastructure projects in the Brazilian Amazon. Simulations based on optimistic and non-optimistic deforestation scenarios showed a 2-fold and a 3-fold increase, respectively, in Amazonian mammals committed to extinction. The predicted number of threatened species by 2020 was 5–18% of the total number of endemic mammal species, depending on the scenario and equation used. This increase in extinction rates could be catastrophic for ecosystem stability in the Amazon because the loss of functional groups may produce a cascade effect of species extinctions.

Keywords

AmazoniaBrazilfrugivoresfunctional grouphabitat lossneotropicsrainforestspecies-area relationship

Information

Type
Short Communication
Information
Oryx , Volume 39 , Issue 3 , July 2005 , pp. 347 - 350
Copyright
© 2005 Fauna & Flora International