Skip to main content

Confidence limits on fossil ranges that account for facies changes

  • Steven M. Holland (a1)

A drawback to most existing methods of calculating confidence limits on fossil ranges is their assumption that the probability of collecting a taxon through a stratigraphic section is constant. Marshall (1997) described an approach that would circumvent this problem, but it requires knowing the probability of collection as a function of stratigraphic position. Multivariate paleoecological methods, such as detrended correspondence analysis (DCA), offer a means of estimating these probabilities. DCA axis 1 sample scores can be used to quantify facies change through a stratigraphic section, and to calculate the probability of collection of a taxon relative to DCA axis 1. From these two, the probability of collection of each taxon can be estimated for each horizon in the measured section. This approach is applied here to the Upper Ordovician Kope Formation of the Cincinnati, Ohio, area to distinguish between disappearances of taxa that are driven by facies change and taxon rarity and those that represent true regional extinction. This new approach to confidence limits could also be applied to test the synchroneity of extinction or origination at large-scale turnover events, such as mass extinctions and the turnover pulses that bound episodes of faunal stasis.

Hide All
Anstey, R. L., Rabbio, S. F., and Tuckey, M. E. 1987. Bryozoan bathymetric gradients within a Late Ordovician epeiric sea. Paleoceanography 2:165176.
Bayer, U., and McGhee, G. R. 1985. Evolution in marginal epicontinental basins: the role of phylogenetic and ecologic factors (ammonite replacements in the German Lower and Middle Jurassic). Pp. 164220in Bayer, U. and Seilacher, A., eds. Sedimentary and evolutionary cycles. Springer, New York.
Boucot, A. J. 1981. Principles of benthic marine paleoecology. Academic Press, New York.
Brett, C. E. 1995. Sequence stratigraphy, biostratigraphy, and taphonomy in shallow marine environments. Palaios 10:597616.
Brett, C. E., and Algeo, T. J. 1999. Event beds and small-scale cycles in Edenian to lower Maysvillian strata (Upper Ordovician) of northern Kentucky: identification, origin, and temporal constraints. Pp. 6592in Algeo, T. J. and Brett, C. E., eds. Sequence, cycle and event stratigraphy of Upper Ordovician and Silurian strata of the Cincinnati Arch region. 1999 Field Conference of the Great Lakes Section of SEPM, Cincinnati, Ohio.
Brett, C. E., Ivany, L. C., and Schopf, K. M. 1996. Coordinated stasis: an overview. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 127:120.
Cisne, J. L., and Rabe, B. D. 1978. Coenocorrelation: gradient analysis of fossil communities and its applications to stratigraphy. Lethaia 11:341364.
Hay, H. B., Pope, J. K., and Frey, R. C. 1981. Lithostratigraphy, cyclic sedimentation, and paleoecology of the Cincinnatian Series in southwestern Ohio and southeastern Indiana. Pp. 7386in Roberts, T. G., ed. GSA Cincinnati 1981 field trip guidebooks, Vol. 1. Stratigraphy, sedimentology. American Geological Institute, Falls Church, Va.
Hill, M. O., and Gauch, H. G. Jr. 1980. Detrended correspondence analysis: an improved ordination technique. Vegetatio 42:4758.
Holland, S. M. 1993. Sequence stratigraphy of a carbonate-clastic ramp: the Cincinnatian Series (Upper Ordovician) in its type area. Geological Society of America Bulletin 105:306322.
Holland, S. M. 1995a. Depositional sequences, facies control, and the distribution of fossils. Pp. 123in Haq, B. U., ed. Sequence stratigraphy and depositional response to eustatic, tectonic and climatic forcing. Kluwer Academic, Dordrecht, the Netherlands.
Holland, S. M. 1995b. The stratigraphic distribution of fossils. Paleobiology 21:92109.
Holland, S. M. 1997. Using time/environment analysis to recognize faunal events in the Upper Ordovician of the Cincinnati Arch. Pp. 309334in Brett, C. E. and Baird, G. C., eds. Paleontological events: stratigraphic, ecological and evolutionary implications. Columbia University Press, New York.
Holland, S. M. 2000. The quality of the fossil record: a sequence stratigraphic perspective. In Erwin, D. H. and Wing, S. L., eds. Deep time: Paleobiology's perspective. Paleobiology 26(Suppl. to No. 4):148168.
Holland, S. M., and Patzkowsky, M. E. 2002. Stratigraphic variation in the timing of first and last occurrences. Palaios 17:134146.
Holland, S. M., Miller, A. I., Dattilo, B. F., Meyer, D. L., and Diekmeyer, S. L. 1997. Cycle anatomy and variability in the storm-dominated type Cincinnatian (Upper Ordovician): coming to grips with cycle delineation and genesis. Journal of Geology 105:135152.
Holland, S. M., Meyer, D. L., and Miller, A. I. 2000. High-resolution correlation in apparently monotonous rocks: Upper Ordovician Kope Formation, Cincinnati Arch. Palaios 15:7380.
Holland, S. M., Miller, A. I., Meyer, D. L., and Dattilo, B. F. 2001. The detection and importance of subtle biofacies within a single lithofacies: the Upper Ordovician Kope Formation of the Cincinnati, Ohio region. Palaios 16:205217.
Horton, B. P., Edwards, R. J., and Lloyd, J. M. 1999. A foraminiferal-based transfer function: implications for sea-level studies. Journal of Foraminiferal Research 29:117129.
Jennette, D. C., and Pryor, W. A. 1993. Cyclic alternation of proximal and distal storm facies: Kope and Fairview Formations (Upper Ordovician), Ohio and Kentucky. Journal of Sedimentary Petrology 63:183203.
Jongman, R. H. G., ter Braak, C. J. F., and Van Tongeren, O. F. R., eds. 1995. Data analysis in community and landscape ecology. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
Labandeira, C. C., Johnson, K. R., and Wilf, P. 2002. Impact of the terminal Cretaceous event on plant-insect associations. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA 99:20612066.
Marshall, C. R. 1990. Confidence intervals on stratigraphic ranges. Paleobiology 16:110.
Marshall, C. R. 1997. Confidence intervals on stratigraphic ranges with nonrandom distributions of fossil horizons. Paleobiology 23:165173.
Marshall, C. R. 1998. Determining stratigraphic ranges. Pp. 2353in Donovan, S. K. and Paul, C. R. C., eds. The adequacy of the fossil record. Wiley, New York.
Marshall, C. R., and Ward, P. D. 1996. Sudden and gradual molluscan extinctions in the latest Cretaceous of western European Tethys. Science 274:13601363.
McCune, B., and Mefford, M. J. 1999. PC-ORD. Multivariate Analysis of Ecological Data, Version 4.0. MjM Software Design, Gleneden Beach, Ore.
McKinney, M. L. 1986a. Biostratigraphic gap analysis. Geology 14:3638.
McKinney, M. L. 1986b. How biostratigraphic gaps form. Journal of Geology 94:875884.
Meyer, D. L., Miller, A. I., Holland, S. M., and Dattilo, B. F. 2002. Crinoid distributions and feeding morphology through a depositional sequence: Kope and Fairview Formations, Upper Ordovician, Cincinnati Arch region. Journal of Paleontology 76:725732.
Miller, A. I. 1988. Spatial resolution in subfossil molluscan remains: Implications for paleobiological analyses. Paleobiology 14:91103.
Miller, A. I., and Holland, S. M. 2001. The use of faunal gradient analysis for high resolution correlation in the type Cincinnatian. Journal of Geology 9:603613.
Miller, A. I., Holland, S. M., Dattilo, B. F., and Meyer, D. L. 1997. Stratigraphic resolution and perceptions of cycle architecture: variations in meter-scale cyclicity in the type Cincinnatian Series. Journal of Geology 105:737743.
Miller, A. I., Holland, S. M., Meyer, D. L., and Dattilo, B. F. 2001. The use of faunal gradient analysis for intraregional correlation and assessment of changes in sea-floor topography in the type Cincinnatian. Journal of Geology 109:603613.
Minchin, P. R. 1987. An evaluation of the relative robustness of techniques for ecological ordination. Vegetatio 69:89107.
Patzkowsky, M. E. 1995. Gradient analysis of Middle Ordovician brachiopod biofacies: Biostratigraphic, biogeographic, and macroevolutionary implications. Palaios 10:154179.
Paul, C. R. C. 1982. The adequacy of the fossil record. Pp. 75117in Joysey, K. A. and Friday, A. E., eds. Problems of phylogenetic reconstruction. Academic Press, New York.
Scott, G. 1940. Paleoecological factors controlling the distribution and mode of life of Cretaceous ammonoids in the Texas area. Journal of Paleontology 14:299323.
Shaw, F. C., and Lespérance, P. J. 1994. North American biogeography and taxonomy of Cryptolithus (Trilobita, Ordovician). Journal of Paleontology 68:808823.
Solow, A. R. 1996. Tests and confidence intervals for a common upper endpoint in fossil taxa. Paleobiology 22:406410.
Springer, D. A., and Bambach, R. K. 1985. Gradient versus cluster analysis of fossil assemblages: a comparison from the Ordovician of southwestern Virginia. Lethaia 18:181198.
Springer, M. S. 1990. The effect of random range truncations on patterns of evolution in the fossil record. Paleobiology 16:512520.
Strauss, D., and Sadler, P. M. 1989. Classical confidence intervals and Bayesian probability estimates for ends of local taxon ranges. Mathematical Geology 21:411427.
ter Braak, C. J. F., and Looman, C. W. M. 1986. Weighted averaging, logistic regression and the Gaussian response model. Vegetatio 65:311.
Tobin, R. C., and Pryor, W. A. 1981. Sedimentological interpretation of an Upper Ordovician carbonate-shale vertical sequence in northern Kentucky. Pp. 4957in Roberts, T. G., ed. GSA Cincinnati 1981 field trip guidebooks, Vol. I. Stratigraphy, sedimentology. American Geological Institute, Falls Church, Va.
Walker, K. R., and Laporte, L. F. 1970. Congruent fossil communities from Ordovician and Devonian carbonates of New York. Journal of Paleontology 44:928944.
Recommend this journal

Email your librarian or administrator to recommend adding this journal to your organisation's collection.

  • ISSN: 0094-8373
  • EISSN: 1938-5331
  • URL: /core/journals/paleobiology
Please enter your name
Please enter a valid email address
Who would you like to send this to? *


Altmetric attention score

Full text views

Total number of HTML views: 0
Total number of PDF views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

Abstract views

Total abstract views: 0 *
Loading metrics...

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between <date>. This data will be updated every 24 hours.

Usage data cannot currently be displayed