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Expert Judgment for Climate Change Adaptation

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 January 2022


Climate change adaptation is largely a local matter, and adaptation planning can benefit from local climate change projections. Such projections are typically generated by accepting climate model outputs in a relatively uncritical way. We argue, based on the IPCC’s treatment of model outputs from the CMIP5 ensemble, that this approach is unwarranted and that subjective expert judgment should play a central role in the provision of local climate change projections intended to support decision-making.

Evidence for Climate Policy
Copyright © The Philosophy of Science Association

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This work was supported by the AHRC’s Managing Severe Uncertainty project (AH/J006033/1), the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation (grant FFI2012-37354), and the Natural Environment Research Council (grant NE/M008304/1).


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