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Conditional Probabilities and Probabilities Given Knowledge of a Condition

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 April 2022

Paul Weirich
Paul Weirich*
Affiliation:
Department of Philosophy University of Rochester
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Abstract

The conditional probability of h given e is commonly claimed to be equal to the probability that h would have if e were learned. Here I contend that this general claim about conditional probabilities is false. I present a counter-example that involves probabilities of probabilities, a second that involves probabilities of possible future actions, and a third that involves probabilities of indicative conditionals. In addition, I briefly defend these counter-examples against charges that the probabilities they involve are illegitimate.

Information

Type
Research Article
Information
Philosophy of Science , Volume 50 , Issue 1 , March 1983 , pp. 82 - 95
Copyright
Copyright © 1983 by the Philosophy of Science Association

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Footnotes

†

I am grateful for helpful comments from Richard Feldman, Teddy Seidenfeld, and William Harper.

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