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Accepted manuscript

Stability, Robustness Reasoning, and Measuring the Human Contribution to Warming

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  27 August 2025

Corey Dethier*
Affiliation:
University of Minnesota Twin Cities College of Liberal Arts, UK
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Abstract

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In principle, inaccuracies in the representation of the climate’s internal variability could undermine the measurement of the human contribution to warming. Equally in principle, the success of the measurement practice could provide evidence that our assumptions about internal variability are correct. I argue that neither condition obtains: current measurement practices do not provide evidence for the accuracy of our assumptions precisely because they are not as sensitive to inaccuracy in the representation of internal variability as might be worried. I end by drawing some lessons about stability and “robustness reasoning” more generally.

Information

Type
Contributed Paper
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2025. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of Philosophy of Science Association