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FORECASTING WITH LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS AND THE POLLS IN 2012

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 January 2013

Robert S. Erikson
Affiliation:
Columbia University
Christopher Wlezien
Affiliation:
Temple University

Extract

On August 1, 2012, we prepared a forecast of the 2012 presidential vote for PS. Our model contains two variables: (1) the cumulated weighted growth in leading economic indicators (LEI) through quarter 13 of the current presidential term and (2) the incumbent party candidate's share in the most recent trial-heat polls, which were for the month of July. What mostly distinguishes our model from others is the reliance on leading indicators from the quarter ending in March of the election year. The early reading of LEI works well as a predictor because it summarizes growth in the economy leading up to the election year and also provides advance indication of changes in the economy during the election year. The exact equation and the exact forecast change as the poll readings change during the election year.

Type
Features Symposium: Recap: Forecasting the 2012 Election
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2013

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References

Erikson, Robert S., and Wlezien, Christopher. 2012a. “The Objective and Subjective Economy and the Presidential Vote.” PS: Political Science and Politics 45 (4): 620–24.Google Scholar
Erikson, Robert S., and Wlezien, Christopher. 2012b. The Timeline of Presidential Elections: How Campaigns Do (and Do Not) Matter. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar