Skip to main content
×
Home

Controversies in Exit Polling: Implementing a Racially Stratified Homogenous Precinct Approach

  • Matt A. Barreto (a1), Fernando Guerra (a2), Mara Marks (a2), Stephen A. Nuño (a3) and Nathan D. Woods (a4)...
Abstract

In November 2000, exit poll interviews with voters in Florida indicated that Al Gore won the state. As a result, many television networks declared Gore the winner of Florida, a pivotal state to winning the presidency in 2000. Only a few hours later, the first vote tallies from the Florida Secretary of State's office revealed that George W. Bush was in fact leading in Florida. After 45 days of recounts and lawsuits, it was clear that the exit polls were wrong; Bush had won the state by the narrowest of margins. As a result of the flawed exit poll the media and pollsters scoured and reanalyzed the methodology used in 2000 to prepare and correct for the 2004 presidential election. The old system, Voter News Service (VNS) was scrapped entirely, and Edison-Mitofsky Research was chosen to implement a new and more accurate national exit poll in 2004 by a consortium of news organizations retained by the Associated Press called the National Election Pool (NEP). What happened? Exit poll results from Edison-Mitofsky showed John Kerry ahead in Ohio, Florida, and New Mexico—all states which he lost to Bush in 2004.Author names are listed alphabetically. The co-authors were also the co-principal investigators of the Loyola Marymount University 2005 Los Angeles Mayoral Exit Poll. Thanks to Salvador Paniagua and Haven Perez for their tremendous research assistance in implementing this project and to the more than 120 student researchers who participated in the exit polling and data entry. Robert Aguinaga and Antonio Gonzalez of the Southwest Voter Registration and Education Project also provided valuable assistance in implementing the poll. Mark Blumenthal, of mysterypollster.com was instrumental in tracking down exit poll archives.

Copyright
References
Hide All

References

Aquilino, William S. 1994. “Interview Mode Effects in Surveys of Drug Use: A Field Experiment.” Public Opinion Quarterly 58(2): 210240.
Associated Press. 2004. “Congressman Seeks Election Polling Data.” New York Times, December 22, A22.
Baiman, Ron, Kathy Dopp, Steven F. Freeman, Brian Joiner, Victoria Lovegren, Josh Mittledorf, Campbell B. Read, Richard G. Sheehan, Jonathon Simon, Frank Stenger, Paul F. Vellman, and Bruce O'Dell. 2005. “Analysis of the 2004 Presidential Election Poll Discrepancies.” US Count Votes' National Election Data Archive Project. http://electionarchive.org/ucvAnalysis/US/Exit_Polls_2004_Mitofsky-Edison.pdf.
Benson, Lawrence E. 1941. “Studies in Secret-Ballot Technique.” Public Opinion Quarterly 5(1): 7982.
Bishop, George F., and Bonnie S. Fisher. 1995. “‘Secret Ballots’ and Self-Reports in an Exit-Poll Experiment.” Public Opinion Quarterly 59(4): 568588.
Borrelli, Stephen, Brad Lockerbie, and Richard G. Niemi. 1987. “Why the Democrat-Republican Partisanship Gap Varies from Poll to Poll.” Public Opinion Quarterly 51(1): 115119.
Brown, Steven, David Docherty, Kimberly Ellis-Hale, Ailsa Henderson, and Barry Kay. 2004. Presented at the annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, Winnipeg, Manitoba.
Busch, Ronald, and Joel Lieske. 1985. “Does Time of Voting Affect Exit Poll Results?Public Opinion Quarterly 49 (spring): 94104.
Carpini, Michael X. 1984. “Scooping the Voters? The Consequences of the Networks' Early Call of the 1980 Presidential Race.” Journal of Politics 46(3): 866885.
CNN. 2005. “Report suggests changes in exit poll methodology.” CNN Inside Politics, January 19.
Couper, Mick P. 2000. “Web Surveys: A Review of Issues and Approaches.” Public Opinion Quarterly 64 (3): 464494.
Crespi, Irving. 1989. Public Opinion, Polls, and Democracy. Boulder, CO: Westview Press.
Crespin, Michael H., and Ryan J. Vander Wielen. 2002. “The Influence of Media Projections on Voter Turnout in Presidential Elections From 1980–2002.” Presented at the 2002 Midwest Political Science Association Conference, Chicago.
Doob, Leonard W. 2001. “Tropical Weather and Attitude Surveys.” Public Opinion Quarterly 32 (3): 423431.
Farley, Reynolds. 2001. “Racial Residential Segregation: Census 2000 Findings.” Working Paper. University of Michigan Population Studies Center. enceladus.isr.umich.edu/race/racestart.asp.
Fiorina, Morris, and Jon Krosnick. 2005. “The Economist/YouGov Internet Presidential Poll.”
Freeman, Donald M. 1969. “A Note on Interviewing Mexican-Americans.” Social Science Quarterly 49 (4): 909918.
Groves, Robert, and Mick Couper. 1998. Nonresponse in Household Interview Surveys. New York: Wiley-Interscience
Hurtado, Aida. 1994. “Does Similarity Breed Respect: Interviewer Evaluations of Mexican-Descent Respondents in a Bilingual Survey.” Public Opinion Quarterly 58(1): 7795.
Jackson, John E. 1983. “Election Night Reporting and Voter Turnout.” American Journal of Political Science 27 (4): 615635.
Karp, Jeffrey, and Susan Banducci. 2000. “Going Postal: How All Mail Elections Influence Turnout.” Political Behavior 22 (3): 223239.
Keating, Dan, and Dan Balz. 2001. “Florida Recounts Would Have Favored Bush: But Study Finds Gore Might Have Won Statewide Tally of All Uncounted Ballots.” Washington Post, November 12.
Keeter, Scott, Carolyn Miller, Andrew Kohut, Robert M. Groves, and Stanley Presser. 2000. “Consequences of Reducing Non Response in a National Telephone Survey.” Public Opinion Quarterly 64(2): 125148.
Konner, Joan, James Risser, and Ben Wattenberg. 2001. “Television's Performance on Election Night 2000: A Report for CNN.” Report sponsored by CNN. http://archives.cnn.com/2001/ALLPOLITICS/stories/02/02/cnn.report/cnn.pdf.
Ladd, Everett Carll. 1996. “The Election Polls: An American Waterloo.” Chronicle of Higher Education, November 22, A56.
Lavrakas, Paul J., Michael W. Traugott, and Peter V. Miller, eds. 1995. Presidential Polls and the News Media. Boulder, CO: Westview Press.
Leal, David, Matt Barreto, Jongho Lee, and Rodolfo de la Garza. 2005. “The Latino Vote in the 2004 Election.” PS: Political Science and Politics 38 (January): 4149.
Levy, Mark R. 1983. “The Methodology and Performance of Election Day Polls.” Public Opinion Quarterly 47 (1): 5467.
Liddle, Elizabeth. 2005. “Edison/Mitofsky Exit Polls 2004: Differential Non-response or Vote-count Corruption?” Available at www.geocities.com/lizzielid/WPEpaper.pdf.
Logan, John. 2002. “Hispanic Populations and Their Residential Patterns in the Metropolis.” Working Paper. Lewis Mumford Center for Comparative Urban and Regional Research. May 8. mumford1.dyndns.org/cen2000/HispanicPop/HspReportNew/MumfordReport.pdf.
Mitofsky, Warren. 1989. “Presidential Address. Methods and Standards: A Challenge for Change.” In Proceedings of the Forty-Fourth Annual Conference of the American Association for Public Opinion Research. Public Opinion Quarterly 53 (3): 443466.
Mitofsky, Warren. 1998. “Review: Was 1996 a Worse Year for Polls than 1948?Public Opinion Quarterly 62 (2): 230249.
Mitofsky, Warren. 1999. “Pollsters.comPublic Perspective (June/July).
Mitofsky, Warren. 2003. “Voter News Service After the Fall.” Public Opinion Quarterly 67 (1): 4558.
Mitofsky, Warren. 2005. “Evaluation of Edison/Mitofsky Election System 2004.” Prepared by Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International for the National Election Pool (NEP). http://exit-poll.net/election-night/EvaluationJan192005.pdf.
Moore, David W. 1995. The Superpollsters: How They Measure and Manipulate Public Opinion in America. New York: Four Walls Eight Windows.
Morin, Richard. 2004. “Surveying the Damage.” Washington Post, November 21.
Morin, Richard, and Claudia Deane. 2005. “Report Acknowledges Inaccuracies in 2004 Exit Poll.” Washington Post, January 20, A6.
Robinson, Claude E., Robert E. Chaddock, and Columbia University Council for Research in the Social Sciences. 1932. Straw Votes, a Study of Political Prediction: A Study of Political Prediction. New York: Columbia University Press.
Sobel, Russel S., and Robert A. Lawson. 2001. “The Effect of Early Media Projections on Presidential Voting in the Florida Panhandle.” www.be.wvu.edu/div/econ/work/pdf_files/01-07.pdf.
Sudman, Seymour. 1996. “Do Exit Polls Influence Voting Behavior?Public Opinion Quarterly 50 (3): 331339.
Traugott, Michael W., and Vincent Price. 1992. “A Review: Exit Polls in the 1989 Virginia Gubernatorial Race: Where Did They Go Wrong?Public Opinion Quarterly 56 (2): 245253.
Traugott, Michael W., and Paul J. Lavrakas. 1999. The Voter's Guide to Election Polls. New York: Chatham House Publishers.
Weeks, Michael F., and R. Paul Moore. 1981. “Ethnicity-of-Interviewer Effects on Ethnic Respondents.” Public Opinion Quarterly 45 (2): 245249.
Welch, Susan, John Corner, and Michael Steinman. 1973. “Interviewing in a Mexican-American Community: An Investigation of Some Potential Sources of Response Bias.” Public Opinion Quarterly 37 (1): 115126.
Recommend this journal

Email your librarian or administrator to recommend adding this journal to your organisation's collection.

PS: Political Science & Politics
  • ISSN: 1049-0965
  • EISSN: 1537-5935
  • URL: /core/journals/ps-political-science-and-politics
Please enter your name
Please enter a valid email address
Who would you like to send this to? *
×

Metrics

Full text views

Total number of HTML views: 2
Total number of PDF views: 29 *
Loading metrics...

Abstract views

Total abstract views: 97 *
Loading metrics...

* Views captured on Cambridge Core between September 2016 - 25th November 2017. This data will be updated every 24 hours.