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Controversies in Exit Polling: Implementing a RaciallyStratified Homogenous Precinct Approach

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 July 2006

Matt A. Barreto ,
Fernando Guerra ,
Mara Marks ,
Stephen A. Nuño  and
Nathan D. Woods
Matt A. Barreto
Affiliation:
University of Washington
Fernando Guerra
Affiliation:
Loyola Marymount University
Mara Marks
Affiliation:
Loyola Marymount University
Stephen A. Nuño
Affiliation:
University of California, Irvine
Nathan D. Woods
Affiliation:
Welch Consulting, Inc.
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In November 2000, exit poll interviews with voters in Floridaindicated that Al Gore won the state. As a result, many televisionnetworks declared Gore the winner of Florida, a pivotal state towinning the presidency in 2000. Only a few hours later, the firstvote tallies from the Florida Secretary of State's office revealedthat George W. Bush was in fact leading in Florida. After 45 days ofrecounts and lawsuits, it was clear that the exit polls were wrong;Bush had won the state by the narrowest of margins. As a result ofthe flawed exit poll the media and pollsters scoured and reanalyzedthe methodology used in 2000 to prepare and correct for the 2004presidential election. The old system, Voter News Service (VNS) wasscrapped entirely, and Edison-Mitofsky Research was chosen toimplement a new and more accurate national exit poll in 2004 by aconsortium of news organizations retained by the Associated Presscalled the National Election Pool (NEP). What happened? Exit pollresults from Edison-Mitofsky showed John Kerry ahead in Ohio,Florida, and New Mexico—all states which he lost to Bush in2004.Author names are listedalphabetically. The co-authors were also the co-principalinvestigators of the Loyola Marymount University 2005 LosAngeles Mayoral Exit Poll. Thanks to Salvador Paniagua and HavenPerez for their tremendous research assistance in implementingthis project and to the more than 120 student researchers whoparticipated in the exit polling and data entry. Robert Aguinagaand Antonio Gonzalez of the Southwest Voter Registration andEducation Project also provided valuable assistance inimplementing the poll. Mark Blumenthal, of mysterypollster.comwas instrumental in tracking down exit poll archives.

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FEATURES
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PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 39 , Issue 3 , July 2006 , pp. 477 - 483
Copyright
© 2006 The American Political Science Association

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