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  • Cited by 3
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    This article has been cited by the following publications. This list is generated based on data provided by CrossRef.

    Anderson, Cameron D. and McGregor, R. Michael 2015. Economic Attitudes and Political Identities: Evidence from Canada. International Journal of Public Opinion Research, Vol. 27, Issue. 3, p. 361.

    Hummel, Patrick and Rothschild, David 2014. Fundamental models for forecasting elections at the state level. Electoral Studies, Vol. 35, p. 123.

    Cuzán, Alfred G. 2013. FISCAL MODEL FAILURE: A MEASUREMENT PROBLEM? A PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT. PS: Political Science & Politics, Vol. 46, Issue. 01, p. 42.


Forecasting the 2012 Presidential Election with the Fiscal Model

  • Alfred G. Cuzán (a1)
  • DOI:
  • Published online: 01 September 2012

In March 2009, at a time when President Obama was basking in the glow of the honeymoon with the public every new president enjoys, I asked, “Will Barack Obama be a one-term president?” What prompted me to pose so impertinent a question at so hopeful a time was that the Office of Management and Budget was projecting that that year the federal government would spend 28% of gross domestic product (GDP). This amounted to a 7% point increase compared to the previous year, the largest peacetime one-year jump since 1930. The most recent estimate for 2012 is that federal outlays will take up 24.3% of GDP, up 3.5% points since 2008. This is the second-largest peacetime increase from one election year to the next since 1880, edged out only by Franklin D. Roosevelt's first-term surge of 3.6% points.

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Alfred G. Cuzán , Richard J. Heggen, and Charles M. Budrick. 2009. “Fiscal Policy in American Presidential Elections: A Simulation.” Simulation 85 (1): 515.

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PS: Political Science & Politics
  • ISSN: 1049-0965
  • EISSN: 1537-5935
  • URL: /core/journals/ps-political-science-and-politics
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