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Forecasting the 2012 Presidential Election with the Fiscal Model

  • Alfred G. Cuzán (a1)
Abstract

In March 2009, at a time when President Obama was basking in the glow of the honeymoon with the public every new president enjoys, I asked, “Will Barack Obama be a one-term president?” What prompted me to pose so impertinent a question at so hopeful a time was that the Office of Management and Budget was projecting that that year the federal government would spend 28% of gross domestic product (GDP). This amounted to a 7% point increase compared to the previous year, the largest peacetime one-year jump since 1930. The most recent estimate for 2012 is that federal outlays will take up 24.3% of GDP, up 3.5% points since 2008. This is the second-largest peacetime increase from one election year to the next since 1880, edged out only by Franklin D. Roosevelt's first-term surge of 3.6% points.

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Cuzán Alfred G., and Budrick Charles M.. 2004. “Fiscal Effects on Presidential Elections: A Forecast for 2004.” Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago, September.
Cuzán Alfred G., and Budrick Charles M.. 2008. “Forecasting the 2008 Presidential Election: A Challenge for the Fiscal Model.” PS: Political Science and Politics 41 (4): 717–22.
Cuzán Alfred G., Heggen Richard J., and Budrick Charles M.. 2009. “Fiscal Policy in American Presidential Elections: A Simulation.” Simulation 85 (1): 515.
Fair Ray C. 2012. Vote-Share Equations: Predictions. http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/vote2012/index2.htm.
Lichtman Allan. 2010. “The Keys to the White House: Forecast for 2012.” Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, Issue 18, 3337.
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PS: Political Science & Politics
  • ISSN: 1049-0965
  • EISSN: 1537-5935
  • URL: /core/journals/ps-political-science-and-politics
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