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Long-Term Trends and Short-Term Forecasts: The Transformation of US Presidential Elections in an Age of Polarization

  • Alan I. Abramowitz (a1)
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Abramowitz, Alan I. 2012. “Forecasting in a Polarized Era: The Time for Change Model and the 2012 Presidential Election.” PS: Political Science and Politics, 45 (4):. 1819.
Abramowitz, Alan I. 2013. The Polarized Public: Why American GovernmentIis So Dysfunctional. New York: Pearson Longman.
Abramowitz, Alan I., and Saunders, Kyle L.. 1998. “ Ideological Realignment in the US Electorate.” Journal of Politics 60 (3): 634–52.
Bafumi, Joseph and Shapiro, Robert Y.. 2009. “A New Partisan Voter.” Journal of Politics, 71 (1): 124.
Bartels, Larry M. 2000. “ Partisanship and Voting Behavior, 1952–1996.” American Journal of Political Science, 44 (1): 3550.
Berry, Michael J., and Bickers, Kenneth N.. 2012. “Forecasting the 2012 Presidential Election with State-Level Economic Indicators.” PS: Political Science and Politics, 45 (4): 669–74.
Campbell, James E. 2012. “Forecasting the Presidential and Congressional Elections of 2012: The Trial-Heat and the Seats-in-Trouble Models.” PS: Political Science and Politics, 45 (4): 630–.34.
Erikson, Robert S. and Wlezien, Christopher. 2012. “The Objective and Subjective Economy and the Presidential VotePS: Political Science and Politics, 45 (4): 620–24.
Highton, Benjamin, and Kam, Cindy D.. 2011. “The Long-Term Dynamics of Partisanship and Issue Orientations.” Journal of Politics, 73 (1): 202–15.
Holbrook, Thomas M. 2012. “Incumbency, National Conditions, and the 2012 Presidential Election.” PS: Political Science and Politics, 45 (4): 640–43.
Jacobson, Gary C. 2012. “The Electoral Origins of Polarized Politics: Evidence from the 2010 Cooperative Congressional Election Study,” American Behavioral Scientist, 56 (12): 1612–30.
Levendusky, Matthew S. 2009. The Partisan Sort: How Liberals Became Democrats and Conservatives Became Republicans. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Lewis-Beck, Michael S. and Tien, Charles. 2012. “Election Forecasting for Turbulent Times.” PS: Political Science and Politics, 45 (4): 625–29.
Lockerbie, Brad. 2012. “Economic Expectations and Election Outcomes: The Presidency and the House in 2012.? PS: Political Science and Politics, 45 (4): 644–47.
Norpoth, Helmut and Bednarczuk, Michael. 2012. “History and Primary: The Obama Reelection.” PS: Political Science and Politics, 45 (4): 614–17.
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PS: Political Science & Politics
  • ISSN: 1049-0965
  • EISSN: 1537-5935
  • URL: /core/journals/ps-political-science-and-politics
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