The forecasting model I wrote about in the October 2004 issue of PS(Holbrook 2004) is best described as a referendum model. Itincorporates presidential approval (Gallup polls averaged from June through August), ameasure of aggregate satisfaction with personal finances weighted by the tone of economic news (averaged from June through August), and a dummy variable coded “1”for years in which the incumbent party had held the White House for at least two consecutiveterms and “0” for all other years. The first two variables are intended to capture thepolitical and economic performance of the incumbent administration, while the latter(borrowed from Abramowitz 1988) is based on the idea that it maybe easier to convince voters that it is “time for a change” if the incumbent party has heldthe White House for at least two consecutive terms.