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Constraint envelope analyses of macroecological patterns reveal climatic effects on Pleistocene mammal extinctions

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 January 2017

Matheus S. Lima-Ribeiro ,
Joaquín Hortal ,
Sara Varela  and
José Alexandre F. Diniz-Filho
Matheus S. Lima-Ribeiro*
Affiliation:
Laboratório de Macroecologia, Universidade Federal de Goiás, Campus Jataí, Cx. Postal 03 75804-020, Jataí, GO Brazil
Joaquín Hortal
Affiliation:
Departamento de Biogeografía y Cambio Global, Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales (MNCN-CSIC), C/José Gutiérrez Abascal 2, 28006 Madrid, Spain
Sara Varela
Affiliation:
Department of Ecology, Faculty of Science, Charles University, Vinicná 7, 128 44 Praha 2, Czech Republic
José Alexandre F. Diniz-Filho
Affiliation:
Departamento de Ecologia, ICB, Universidade Federal de Goiás, Cx. Postal 131, 74001-970, Goiânia, GO, Brazil
*
*Corresponding author.E-mail address:mslima.ribeiro@gmail.com (M.S. Lima-Ribeiro).
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Abstract

Quantitative analysis of macroecological patterns for late Pleistocene assemblages can be useful for disentangling the causes of late Quaternary extinctions (LQE). However, previous analyses have usually assumed linear relationships between macroecological traits, such as body size and range size/range shift, that may have led to erroneous interpretations. Here, we analyzed mammalian datasets to show how macroecological patterns support climate change as an important driver of the LQE, which is contrary to previous analyses that did not account for more complex relationships among traits. We employed quantile regression methods that allow a detailed and fine-tuned quantitative analysis of complex macroecological patterns revealed as polygonal relationships (i.e., constraint envelopes). We showed that these triangular-shaped envelopes that describe the macroecological relationship between body size and geographical range shift reflect nonrandom extinction processes under which the large-bodied species are more prone to extinction during events of severe habitat loss, such as glacial/interglacial transitions. Hence, we provide both a theoretical background and methodological framework to better understand how climate change induces body size-biased species sorting and shapes complex macroecological patterns.

Keywords

Late Quaternary extinctionsQuantile regressionTriangular-shaped envelopesSpecies sortingBody sizeRange shiftHabitat trackingClimate changesExtinction riskNorth America
Type
Articles
Information
Quaternary Research , Volume 82 , Issue 1 , July 2014 , pp. 260 - 269
Copyright
University of Washington

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