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Sensitivity of Cool-Temperate Forests and their Fossil Pollen Record to Rapid Temperature Change

  • Margaret Bryan Davis (a1) and Daniel B. Botkin (a2)
Abstract

Simulations of cool-temperate forest growth in response to climatic change using the JABOWA computer model show that a decrease of 600 growing degree-days (equivalent to a 2°C decrease in mean annual temperature) causes red spruce (Picea rubens) to replace sugar maple (Acer saccharum) as the dominant tree. These changes are delayed 100–200 yr after the climatic cooling, producing gradual forest changes in response to abrupt temperature changes, and reducing the amplitude of response to brief climatic events. Soils and disturbances affect the speed and magnitude of forest response. The delayed responses are caused by the difference in sensitivity of adult trees and younger stages. The length of the delay depends on the life history characteristics of the dominant species. Delayed responses imply that fossil pollen deposits, even if they faithfully record the abundances of trees in forests, may not be able to resolve climatic changes within 100–200 yr, or to record very brief climatic events. This explains why pollen deposits do not as yet show responses to climatic changes during the past 100 yr. Only the Little Ice Age, which lasted several centuries, caused sufficient forest change to be recorded in fossil pollen, and only at certain sites.

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J.D. Aber D.B. Botkin J.M. Melillo 1978 Predicting the effects of different harvesting regimes on forest floor dynamics in northern hardwoods Canadian Journal of Forest Research 8 306315

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D.B. Botkin J.F. Janak J.R. Wallis 1973 Some ecological consequences of a computer model of forest growth Journal of Ecology 60 849872

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H.H. Shugart D.C. West W.R. Emmanual 1981 Patterns and dynamics of forests: An application of simulation models D.C. West H.H. Shugart D.B. Botkin Forest Succession Springer-Verlag New York 7494

T.B. Siccama M. Bliss H.W. Vogelmann 1982 Decline of red spruce in the Green Mountains of Vermont Torrey Botanical Club Bulletin 109 162168

E.W. Wahl 1968 A comparison of the climate of the eastern United States during the 1830's with the current normals Monthly Weather Review 96 7382

T. Webb III S.E. Howe R.H.W. Bradshaw K.M. Heide 1981 Estimating plant abundances from pollen percentages: The use of regression analysis Review of Paleobotany and Palynology 34 269300

D.C. West H.H. Shugart D.B. Botkin 1981 Forest Succession Springer-Verlag New York

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Quaternary Research
  • ISSN: 0033-5894
  • EISSN: 1096-0287
  • URL: /core/journals/quaternary-research
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