Published online by Cambridge University Press: 20 February 2017
How China assumes its position of superpower is one of the most important questions regarding global order in the twenty-first century. While considerable and sustained attention has been paid to China’s growing economic and military might, work examining how China is attempting, if at all, to influence the ecosystem of global norms is in its earlier stages. In this article we examine China’s actions in an important venue for the development of global norms, the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA). Using a unique dataset that captures how other countries move into or out of alignment with China on UNGA resolutions that are repeated over time, we find statistical evidence that China used diplomatic and economic means in an attempt to subtly alter international norms. We further illustrate these findings by examining four states that made substantive moves toward China on resolutions concerning national sovereignty, democracy, international order, non-interference, and human rights.
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49 We also consider that access to Chinese exports may be most politically salient for those supplying mineral fuels to China. We test this in Appendix I, Table I.3, model V and indeed find that results on imports and exports of mineral fuels, which includes various types of oil, substantively match those of general trade, which we present in Table 1 below, when we only consider trade in these goods. However, when we include trade in mineral products as a control alongside all trade, the relationships between mineral fuel trade and alignment are no longer significant, while the general trade results remain robust, as shown in Appendix I, Table I.3, model VI.
50 Bader, ‘China, autocratic patron?’.
51 We use the Polity IV score in the regressions in Table 1. These results are also robust when using Freedom House scores, with results available upon request.
52 Following Strüver, ‘What friends are made of’, we also run models using exports as share to total exports and of GDP. Like Strüver we find no significant relationship between export dependence and alignment with China’s UNGA position. These results are presented in Appendix I, Table I.2, models I (share of exports) and II (share of GDP).
53 See {https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2050.html} accessed 13 April 2016.
54 Samuel Brazys and Diana Panke, ‘Why do states change positions in the United Nations General Assembly?’, International Political Science Review, Advance Online Print (2015), doi: 10.1177/0192512115616540.
55 Ibid.
56 Panke, ‘The UNGA – a talking shop?’.
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58 Ibid.; see also Nathan and Scobell, China’s Search for Security, p. 184.
59 Panke, ‘The UNGA – a talking shop?’.
60 Data are from Diana Panke, ‘Getting ready to negotiate in international organizations? On the importance of the domestic construction of national positions’, Journal of International Organizations Studies, 4:2 (2013), pp. 25–38. These data are only for the year 2008. However, as we expect the size of UN diplomatic missions to be relatively time-invariant we consider the 2008 count a reasonable proxy for all years in our study.
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63 This proportion is roughly identical to what Brazys and Panke (2015) find (154 repeated out of 311 total) when analysing all UNGA votes over this same time period.
64 A full list of the resolutions considered in this analysis can be found in Appendix II.
65 Treatment of absences and alignment are discussed in Appendix I.
66 A two-tailed, two proportion Z-test indicates this (higher) proportion of states moving into alignment with China is statistically significant at the 99.9 per cent level (Z=6.2819, p=0.0000).
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71 The ‘alignment’ coefficients are coefficients explaining the probability of remaining aligned with China. However as the dependent variable is dichotomous, the opposite sign on the ‘alignment’ coefficients are the coefficients explaining the probability of transitioning from alignments in t-1 to non-alignment in t, while the opposite sign on the ‘non-alignment’ coefficients are the coefficients explaining the probability of remaining non-alignment with China.
72 Flores-Macia and Kreps, ‘The foreign policy consequences of trade’.
73 Strüver, ‘What friends are made of’.
74 Although the time-invariant measure of ‘Diplomats’ become statistically insignificant.
75 Where Z=2.5122 and p=0.01208 for the proportion of total shifts.
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94 Ibid.
95 Ibid.
96 People’s Daily, ‘Full Text of Declaration on Partnership Between China and South Africa’ (25 April 2000), available at: {http://en.people.cn/english/200004/25/eng20000425_39697.html}.
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101 See China.aiddata.org, Geospatial Dashboard (2015), available at: {http://china.aiddata.org/geospatial_dashboard?q=&l=1.6998848422406068,10.498809814453125,9}.
102 US Department of State, ‘U.S. Relations with Equatorial Guinea’, Bureau of African Affairs Fact Sheet (2014), available at: {http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/7221.htm}.
103 Johnston, ‘What (if anything) does East Asia tell us?’.
104 Goodman and Jinks, Socializing States.
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Appendix
Appendix
