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Buffer zones: Anachronism, power vacuum, or confidence builder?

  • Rajan Menon (a1) and Jack L. Snyder (a2)
Abstract

Amidst calls for containing an assertive Russia, politicians and pundits have been debating whether Ukraine should serve as a ‘buffer zone’ between the Russian and Western spheres of influence. These debates provide an opportunity to revisit the long and varied history of major powers’ efforts to manage buffer zones. We draw on this history to learn the conditions under which buffer zones succeed or fail to stabilise regions, how buffers are most successfully managed, and when alternative arrangements for borderlands work better.

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Corresponding author
* Correspondence to: Rajan Menon, City College, Colin L. Powell School for Civic and Global Leadership, New York, US. Author’s email: rmenon@ccny
** Correspondence to: Jack L. Snyder, Columbia University, 420 W. 118 St, New York, 10027-6902, US. Author’s email: jls6@columbia.edu
References
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10 Kratochwil, p. 38, quotes Lord Curzon defining spheres of influence where ‘no exterior power but one may reassert itself in the territory so described’. See also pp. 44–5. The spheres of influence of global maritime powers or colonial powers include territories into which they project power even at a distance from the empire’s home state.

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28 Shuster, The Strangling of Persia, p. 166; Kazemzadeh, Russia and Britain in Persia, pp. 633–5; Abrahamian, E., Iran Between Two Revolutions (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1982), pp. 57111 .

29 John Chay, ‘Korea: a buffer state’, in Chay and Ross (eds), Buffer States in World Politics, pp. 191–212.

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32 Spykman and Rollins, ‘Geographical objectives in foreign policy’, p. 404; Lauren, Paul Gordon, Craig, Gordon A., and George, Alexander L., Force and Statecraft (4th edn, New York: Oxford University Press, 2007), pp. 26 , 33, 42, 83, 160.

33 Larson, Deborah Welch, ‘Crisis prevention and the Austrian State Treaty’, International Organization, 41:1 (1987), pp. 2760 . The State Department’s description of the Treaty notes that its achievements included ‘creating a buffer zone between the East and the West’. US Department of State, ‘Austrian State Treaty’, n.d., available at: {http://2001-2009.state.gov/r/pa/ho/time/lw/107185.htm}.

34 Mearsheimer, John J., Conventional Deterrence (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 1983), pp. 5358 , on the problem of faits accomplis.

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37 This parallels the logic of the ‘scramble for Africa’ in the 1890s, following the waning of British naval hegemony, which underpinned its indirect rule there.

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39 Fazal, State Death, p. 117, emphasis in original.

40 David Stevenson, Armaments and the Coming of War, 1904–1914 (Oxford: Clarendon, 1996), pp. 348–9, 352–6; Ronald Park Bobroff, Roads to Glory: Late Imperial Russia and the Turkish Straits (London: I. B. Tauris, 2006), p. 94; Sean McMeekin, The Russian Origins of the First World War (Cambridge, MA: Harvard Belknap, 2011), pp. 25, 58–9, 95–7.

41 Anderson, Eastern Question, p. 131.

42 Clark, Christopher, The Sleepwalkers: How Europe Went to War in 1914 (New York: Harper, 2012), pp. 274276 ; Jelavich, Barbara, Russia’s Balkan Entanglements, 1806–1914 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1991); Helmreich, E. C., The Diplomacy of the Balkan Wars, 1912–1913 (Cambridge, MA: Harvard, 1938).

43 Kazemzadeh, Russia and Britain in Persia; Curzon, George N., Persia and the Persian Question (New York: Frank Cass, 1892), p. 600 ; Shuster, W. Morgan, The Strangling of Persia (New York: Century, 1912); Anderson, M. S., The Eastern Question, 1774–1923 (London: Macmillan, 1966), p. 92 ; Spykman and Rollins, ‘Geographical objectives in foreign policy’, p. 407.

44 MacDonald, Paul K., Networks of Domination: The Social Foundations of Peripheral Conquest in International Politics (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2014), pp. 5666 ; Mousseau, Michael, ‘The social market roots of the democratic peace’, International Security, 33:4 (spring 2009), pp. 5286 ; Mousseau, , ‘Market civilization and its clash with terror’, International Security, 27:3 (2002/3), pp. 529 .

45 Kazemzadeh, Russia and Britain in Persia, p. 676.

46 Ibid., p. 417.

47 Dixit, Avinash K., Lawlessness and Economics: Alternative Modes of Governance (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2004); Thompson, Graeme, Frances, Jennifer, Levacic, Rosalind, and Mitchell, Jeremy (eds), Markets, Hierarchies and Networks (London: Sage, 1991); Clapham, Christopher (ed), Private Patronage and Public Power: Political Clientelism in the Modern State (London: Frances Pinter, 1982); Shleifer, Andrei and Vishny, Robert W., The Grabbing Hand (Cambridge: Harvard University Press, 1998); Berger, Suzanne and Dore, Ronald, National Diversity and Global Capitalism (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1996).

48 Djilas, Milovan, Conversations with Stalin (New York: Harcourt, Brace, and World, 1962), p. 114 .

49 Craig, Gordon A., Europe, 1815–1914 (3rd edn, Hinsdale, IL: Dryden, 1972), pp. 2830 ; Helmreich, J. E., Belgium and Europe: A Study of Small Power Diplomacy (The Hague: Mouton, 1976), p. 24 .

50 Crowe, Eyre, ‘Memorandum on the present state of British relations with France and Germany’, 1 January 1907, in G. P. Gooch and H. Temperley (eds), British Documents on the Origins of the War: 1898–1914, Volume III (London: HM Stationery Office, 1928), Appendix to document 445, pp. 397–420.

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52 Spykman and Rollins, ‘Geographical objectives in foreign policy’, p. 408.

53 Sarotte, Mary E., 1989: The Struggle to Create Post-Cold War Europe (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2014).

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55 Schroeder, Paul W., ‘The lost intermediaries: the impact of 1870 on the European System’, International History Review, 6:1 (February 1984), pp. 127 ; Schroeder, , The Transformation of European Politics, 1763–1848 (New York: Clarendon, Oxford University Press, 1994), pp. 3335 , 671.

56 Kratochwil, ‘Systems, boundaries, and territoriality’, p. 39.

57 On the latter, see Hassner, Ron E., War on Sacred Grounds (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2009).

58 Bobroff, Ronald, Roads to Glory: Late Imperial Russia and the Turkish Straits (New York: I. B. Tauris, 2006).

59 Cooley, Alexander and Spruyt, Hendrik, Contracting States: Sovereign Transfers in International Relations (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2009), pp. 8687 .

60 See McAllister, James, No Exit: America and the German Problem, 1943–1954 (Ithaca: Cornell, 2002), pp. 21, 74–120, on US Secretary of State James F. Byrnes’s preference for dividing occupied Germany into four separate administrative zones, and ultimately two states, rather than trying to coordinate management of it with the Soviet Union. For examples of joint administration, see Kratochwil, ‘Systems, boundaries, and territoriality’, p. 38.

61 Acharya, Amitav, Constructing a Security Community in Southeast Asia: ASEAN and the Problem of Regional Order (London: Routledge, 2001), pp. 121122 , 135–6, 175–84; Christensen, Thomas J., The China Challenge: Shaping the Choices of a Rising Power (New York: Norton, 2015), pp. 259266 .

62 Gaddis, John Lewis, Strategies of Containment (New York: Oxford University Press, 1982), pp. 2553 .

63 Secretary of State John Foster Dulles, speech before the New York Council on Foreign Relations (12 January 1954), Foreign Relations of the United States 1952–1954, Volume II, Part I, National Security Affairs, Document 107.

64 Hirschman, Albert, National Power and the Structure of International Trade (Berkeley: University of California Press, 1969).

65 On Ukraine’s relationship with Russia since 1991, see Plokhy, Serhii, The Gates of Europe: A History of Ukraine (New York: Basic Books, 2015), pp. 323354 ; Wilson, Andrew, The Ukrainians: A Unexpected Nation (3rd edn, New Haven: Yale University Press, 2009), chs 813 ; Solchanyk, Roman, Ukraine and Russia: The Post-Soviet Transition (Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield, 2001); Yekelchyk, Serhy, The Conflict in Ukraine (New York: Oxford University Press, 2015); Yekelchyk, Serhy, Ukraine: Birth of a Modern Nation (New York: Oxford University Press, 2007), ch. 11 ; Charap, Samuel and Colton, Timothy J., Everyone Loses: The Ukraine Crisis and the Ruinous Contest for Post-Soviet Eurasia (London: International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2017).

66 Khrushchev, Nikita, Memoirs of Nikita Khrushchev, Volume III (University Park, PA: Pennsylvania State University Press, 2007), p. 301 .

67 Joshua Keating, ‘Divorce, Ukrainian style’, Slate (27 February 2014), available at: {http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_world_/2014/02/27/divorce_ukrainian_style_would_ukraine_be_better_off_splitting.html}; Alexander J. Motyl, ‘Why reintegrating the Donbas is suicidal for Ukraine’, World Affairs Journal (25 February 2016), available at: {http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/blog/alexander-j-motyl/why-reintegrating-donbas-suicide-ukraine}.

68 This section draws on Thomas Graham, Rajan Menon, and Jack Snyder, ‘Ukraine between Russia and the West: Buffer or flashpoint’, World Policy Journal, 34:1 (April 2017), 107–18.

69 Posen, Barry, Restraint (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2014).

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