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Human judgment under sample space ignorance

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 June 2000

MICHAEL SMITHSON
Affiliation:
Division of Psychology, The Australian National University, Canberra A.C.T. 0200 Australia
THOMAS BARTOS
Affiliation:
Division of Psychology, The Australian National University, Canberra A.C.T. 0200 Australia
KAZUHISA TAKEMURA
Affiliation:
Institute of Socio-Economic Planning, Tsukuba University, Tsukuba, Ibaraki Japan
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Abstract

This paper surveys results of a research program investigating human judgments of imprecise probabilities under sample-space ignorance (i.e., ignorance of what the possible outcomes are in a decision). The framework used for comparisons with human judgments is primarily due to Walley (1991, 1996). Five studies are reported which test four of Walley's prescriptions for judgment under sample-space ignorance, as well as assessing the impact of the number of observations and types of events on subjective lower and upper probability estimates. The paper concludes with a synopsis of future directions for empirical research on subjective imprecise probability judgments.

Type
Technical article
Copyright
© Risk, Decision and Policy, 2000

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