This paper describes and compares different optimization criteria for choosing fractional insurance coverage for risky ventures that may incur large losses and have high insurance rates due to substantial chances of failure. Four criteria are included: minimax loss, minimum expected loss, minimum expected loss with a limit on maximum loss, and maximum expected utility. The discussion is illustrated by satellite missions that can incur losses in excess of $100 million.

Physician risk management (RM) has been mandated around the world in an effort to reduce pecuniary and non-pecuniary loss associated with avoidable patient injury. However, there has been little empirical RM assessment to determine whether physicians obtain an increased understanding of the law, clinical obligations defined by law, and reduced numbers of injury suits. Here, 210 US primary care physicians were sent a survey requesting demographic information on RM activities, the definition of negligence, and evaluation of ten patient injury jury verdict case scenarios; 138 physicians responded. Although physicians participated in a broad array of RM activities, none were positively associated with overall concordance with case verdicts; indeed, substantive self-study and RM seminar attendance <24 months ago were associated with worse concordance. Recent RM seminar attendance, clinical practice guideline (CPG) use, and self-study were associated with worse concordance in defendant verdict cases; CPG use was correlated with better concordance in plaintiff verdict cases. Respondent physicians were significantly harsher in case evaluations overall when they used insurer CPGs and for defendant verdict cases when they used insurer CPGs, engaged in substantive self-study, or recently attended RM seminars. No RM method was found to correlate with successful jury verdict prediction; having been sued was negatively correlated with defendant verdict case prediction. Finally, respondent physicians had a higher number of patient injury suits associated with participation in RM malpractice training at the training site, RM seminar training, and RM seminar attendance <24 months ago, or if they acted as an expert/consultant in malpractice cases. Most physicians could not identify the rule of negligence; yet correct identification of the negligence rule was not correlated with concordance, prediction, or number of patient injury suits. Thus, physician RM efforts may not be effective in promoting patient safety, may increase risk of patient injury, and may not reduce pecuniary and non-pecuniary costs associated with patient injury.

This study examined the applicability of Huber's (1997) model of risk management to a real-world consumer insurance decision, namely whether to insure a recently purchased item against possible mechanical breakdown in the future. Huber argued that decision makers manage the risks of negative outcomes by applying one or more defusing operators. Respondents in this study asked for whatever information they felt necessary to decide whether to take out an extended warranty on two consumer products of differing values. We found support for most aspects of the model, particularly in relation to risk defusing operators, but also identified some respondents who could not easily be accommodated within it, i.e. those who perceived risk, but did not seem prepared to take any action. We also found evidence for recognition primed insurance decisions. The results are interpreted from a bounded rationality perspective.

The aim of this study is to assess the risk of burnout among teachers.

The burnout syndrome is a complex phenomenon which has been studied extensively from different perspectives. However, the focus was always on its causes and effects but seldom on the worsening processes. On the contrary, this study starts from a static analysis of the burnout (Golembiewski and Munzenrider 1998) and develops a dynamic model in order to assess the risks of worsening the current degree of burnout.

The Maslach Burnout Inventory (MBI, Italian validated Ed version) was administered to a sample of 415 Italian teachers across different levels (from primary school to university) together with some questions on socio-demographic variables. Data were submitted to factor analysis (varimax) which suggested a five-factor structure (personal accomplishment, climate, depersonalization, cynicism, emotional exhaustion). The mean values were calculated for both the three Maslach's dimensions and for the five factors and then compared: the latter seemed to provide a finer interpretation of the degree of burnout. Therefore, Golembiewski's eight-phase model was revised and all the possible passages from one phase to another were studied, with the integration of the new five sub-scales. A new phase model was developed, structured of 32 sub-phases which were then appropriately reduced to 16. This new model was used as a dynamic interpretation tool of Golembiewski's phase model. Besides, all the theoretic probabilities were calculated in order to evaluate the risk of worsening.

The MBI is used as an assessment tool of the current degree of burnout and the eight-phase model is used to classify the gravity of the situation, therefore it is possible to make a diagnosis of the situation. The development of the 16 sub-phases model might provide a prognosis of the risks of burnout. Further research should be conducted to validate the model.

Bayesian advocates of expected utility maximization use sets of probability distributions to represent very different ideas. Strict Bayesians insist that probability judgment is numerically determinate even though the agent can represent such judgments only in imprecise terms. According to Quasi-Bayesians rational agents may make indeterminate subjective probability judgments. Both kinds of Bayesians require that admissible options maximize expected utility according to some probability distribution. Quasi-Bayesians permit the distribution to vary with the context of choice. Maximalists allow for choices that do not maximize expected utility against any distribution. Maximiners mandate what maximalists allow. This paper defends the quasi-Bayesian view against strict Bayesians, on the one hand, and maximalists and maximiners, on the other.

‘Ambiguous beliefs’ are beliefs which are inconsistent with a unique, additive prior. The problem of their update in face of new information has been dealt with in the theoretical literature, and received several contradictory answers. In particular, the ‘maximum likelihood update’ and the ‘full Bayesian update’ have been axiomatized. This experimental study attempts to test the descriptive validity of these two theories by using the Ellsberg experiment framework.

Standards and guidelines often recommend that the warning signal words ‘Danger’, ‘Warning’ and ‘Caution’ are used to denote decreasing levels of hazard on warning signs and labels. However the research into the perceived hazard of these words does not unequivocally support their use in this way. Here we extend the previous research by using a survey methodology and single estimation technique to investigate hazard perceptions of signal words in the UK population. In general our findings support the use of signal words to communicate hazard but we suggest that more research is needed into the specific terms recommended.

Research in USA and the UK has revealed that whilst the incidence of breast cancer is lower in women from black and ethnic minority groups, African and African-American women delay seeking help, have a worse prognosis, and a higher mortality rate. A variety of reasons has been suggested for this: from system delay, to delay by the women arising from educational and socio-economic disadvantage or religious beliefs. Building on this in the UK, from a study conducted in a South London Screening Clinic, a sub-sample of African and African-Caribbean women were interviewed to obtain their narratives of action in delay in seeking help for late-stage breast cancer. The findings suggest that the women were aware of the services offered, were expecting a diagnosis of cancer, but offered a model of fearing extrusion from their community rather than fear of death from the disease, leading to delay in seeking help. The reasons for this are explored and a risk trajectory in biomedicine compared with the African and African-Caribbean women's world is described.

This paper surveys results of a research program investigating human judgments of imprecise probabilities under sample-space ignorance (i.e., ignorance of what the possible outcomes are in a decision). The framework used for comparisons with human judgments is primarily due to Walley (1991, 1996). Five studies are reported which test four of Walley's prescriptions for judgment under sample-space ignorance, as well as assessing the impact of the number of observations and types of events on subjective lower and upper probability estimates. The paper concludes with a synopsis of future directions for empirical research on subjective imprecise probability judgments.

Everyone likes clean seawater to bathe in and standards for acceptable seawater quality are set by the European Commission (CEC, 1976). In 1994, proposals to revise these standards were announced. These proposals were the subject of a House of Lords Select Committee Inquiry (HMSO, 1994, 1995), which deplored the fact that a soundly based cost–benefit analysis of the proposed revision had not been produced. This paper considers the question of developing means to assess the adequacy of the proposed revision from a social/public perception standpoint, using a mixed methodology of quantitative survey and qualitative focus groups. The aim of using such an approach is to provide a more in-depth and informative input into the decision-making process for policy makers. Our results show that mean willingness-to-pay amounts, representing the economic benefits of the revision to the 1976 EC bathing water standard, are roughly of the same order of magnitude as the estimated potential cost increases in average annual household water bills necessary to implement the revision. This result is qualified by analysis of how preferences are constructed in terms of socioeconomic variables, perceptions and attitudes towards risk, and issues such as trust, blame and accountability of institutions and regulatory processes involved in setting standards for bathing water quality.

Risk notification was the initial step in a larger study to determine (1) the prevalence of cardiovascular disease as a late effect of mediastinal irradiation, and (2) whether a brief support group intervention would mitigate any negative effects of risk notification.

323 HD survivors attended a 45 minute risk notification session prior to a routine follow-up medical visit. When they arrived at the clinic and following the risk notification session, they completed surveys that included measures of mood dysphoria, sense of coherence, knowledge of late effects of treatment, and demographic factors. Two analytic models were proposed to look at the effects of risk notification: (1) psychosocial state when arriving at the clinic, and (2) psychosocial change in state following risk notification session.

Pre-intervention mood distress was not significantly affected by time since the initial diagnosis, age, education, or gender. Person's who worked and those with better coping skills had lower initial mood distress. Knowledge of the late effects of treatment was not related to mood distress. Following the intervention, the more distressed a person was initially, the better the coping skills, the greater the decrease in mood distress. Partnered survivors experienced less of a decrease in distress. Knowledge of the late effects of treatment (regardless of their knowledge of cardiovascular disease as a consequence), did not effect change in mood distress.

Findings were contrary to expectations. Findings are consistent with Self-Regulation theory and the Health Belief Model and are not explained by anxiety related to the medical visit itself. Limitations of the study design are discussed.

The method through which risks are conveyed can reduce the psychosocial impact of risk notification.

This paper deals with a model of pollution accumulation in which a catastrophic environmental event occurs once the pollution stock exceeds some uncertain critical level. This problem is studied in a context of ‘hard uncertainty’ since we consider that the available knowledge concerning the value taken by the critical pollution threshold contains both randomness and imprecision. Such a general form of knowledge is modelled as a (closed) random interval. This approach is mathematically tractable and amenable to numerical simulations. In this framework we investigate the effect of hard uncertainty on the optimal pollution/consumption trade-off and we compare the results with those obtained both in the certainty case and in the case of ‘soft uncertainty’ (where only randomness prevails).

This study tested between two interpretations of confidence in diagnostic hypotheses: expected probability of being correct and conflict experienced during the diagnostic process. Physicians generated hypotheses for case histories with two plausible diagnoses, one having a higher population base rate but less severe clinical consequences than the other. Case information indicative of the two diagnoses was varied. Generation proportions for the two diagnoses and confidence judgments both deviated from the predictions of a Bayesian belief model, but in different ways. Generation of a hypothesis increased with diagnosis-consistent information and diagnosis base rates, but was not reduced by diagnosis-inconsistent information. Confidence was sensitive to both consistent and inconsistent information, but was not very sensitive to diagnosis base rates. Physician characteristics also affected hypothesis generation and confidence differentially. Female doctors had lower confidence in their diagnoses than male doctors, yet there were no gender differences in hypothesis generation. Experience affected hypothesis generation monotonically via the increased availability of previously diagnosed cases, while confidence first increased and then decreased with doctors' experience. The results are consistent with an interpretation of confidence judgments as an expression of decision conflict rather than an indication of likely diagnosis accuracy.

It is not uncommon for the invading economist to arrive at radically different conclusions in areas of social inquiry, hitherto left to specialists from other fields. For example, before the arrival of Chicagoan economics, the received wisdom in the criminological field was that deterrent punishments (especially capital punishment) did not work. In this paper, we attend to the simple question: ‘Is religion a beneficial influence on the health of individuals?’ This has not hitherto attracted much attention from economists. However, epidemiological studies have overwhelmingly concluded that the answer to the above question is ‘yes'. In the context of a simple two equation recursive set up, this paper provides sharply contrasting evidence of there being no relationship between the two variables except where an arbitrary five point measure of subjective health status is used. Although the relationship in this case is negative in accordance with the received wisdom, its magnitude is so small that it may be dismissed as inconsequential for reasons discussed in the main body of the paper. This paper deals solely with physical health unlike some of the prior research which also investigates mental health status.

Our aim in this paper is to clarify the notion of independence for imprecise probabilities. Suppose that two marginal experiments are each described by an imprecise probability model, i.e., by a convex set of probability distributions or an equivalent model such as upper and lower probabilities or previsions. Then there are several ways to define independence of the two experiments and to construct an imprecise probability model for the joint experiment. We survey and compare six definitions of independence. To clarify the meaning of the definitions and the relationships between them, we give simple examples which involve drawing balls from urns. For each concept of independence, we give a mathematical definition, an intuitive or behavioural interpretation, assumptions under which the definition is justified, and an example of an urn model to which the definition is applicable. Each of the independence concepts we study appears to be useful in some kinds of application. The concepts of strong independence and epistemic independence appear to be the most frequently applicable.