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Variational inequalities arising from credit rating migration with buffer zone

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 December 2023

Xinfu Chen
Affiliation:
Department of Mathematics, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, 15260, USA School of Mathematical Science, Tongji University, Shanghai, 200092, China
Jin Liang*
Affiliation:
School of Mathematical Science, Tongji University, Shanghai, 200092, China
*
Corresponding author: Jin Liang; Email: liang_jin@tongji.edu.cn
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Abstract

In Chen and Liang previous work, a model, together with its well-posedness, was established for credit rating migrations with different upgrade and downgrade thresholds (i.e. a buffer zone, also called dead band in engineering). When positive dividends are introduced, the model in Chen and Liang (SIAM Financ. Math. 12, 941–966, 2021) may not be well-posed. Here, in this paper, a new model is proposed to include the realistic nonzero dividend scenarios. The key feature of the new model is that partial differential equations in Chen and Liang (SIAM Financ. Math. 12, 941–966, 2021) are replaced by variational inequalities, thereby creating a new free boundary, besides the original upgrading and downgrading free boundaries. Well-posedness of the new model, together with a few financially meaningful properties, is established. In particular, it is shown that when time to debt paying deadline is long enough, the underlying dividend paying company is always in high grade rating, that is, only when time to debt paying deadline is within a certain range, there can be seen the phenomenon of credit rating migration.

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Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BYCreative Common License - NCCreative Common License - ND
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/), which permits non-commercial re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided that no alterations are made and the original article is properly cited. The written permission of Cambridge University Press must be obtained prior to any commercial use and/or adaptation of the article.
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2023. Published by Cambridge University Press
Figure 0

Figure 1. An illustration of the rating migration. Left: starting from a low rating, the rating will upgrade at $\tau _1$, downgrade at $\tau _2$, upgrade at $\tau _3$ and downgrade at $\tau _4$; Right: with the same sample path as the left, but starting from a high rating, the rating will downgrade at $\tau _0$, the rest is the same as the left figure. Starting from different rating, the bond values are different only up to time $\tau _0$. After $\tau _0,$ initial difference of company’s rating disappears.

Figure 1

Figure 2. Sketch of three free boundaries in the scaled variable $(x,t)$: upgrading boundary $x=s^H(t)$, downgrading boundary $x=s^L(t)$ and obstacle boundary $x=\hat{s}^L(t)$; and three regions: low rating $\Sigma ^L$ (blue), high rating $\Sigma ^H$ (purple) and buffer zone $B=Q^H\cap Q^L$ (white), where $Q^H=B\cup \Sigma ^H$ and $Q^L=B\cup \Sigma ^L.$

Figure 2

Figure 3. Sketch of the rating boundaries and solutions’ asymptotic behaviour.