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Mortality and its predictors among people with dementia receiving psychiatric in-patient care

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  09 May 2025

Oriane E. Marguet
Affiliation:
Department of Clinical Neurosciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
Shanquan Chen
Affiliation:
The London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
Emad Sidhom
Affiliation:
Cambridgeshire and Peterborough NHS Foundation Trust, Cambridge, UK
Emma Wolverson
Affiliation:
The Geller Institute of Ageing and Memory, University of West London, London, UK Humber Teaching NHS Foundation Trust, Hull, UK
Gregor Russell
Affiliation:
Bradford District Care NHS Foundation Trust, Bradford, UK
George Crowther
Affiliation:
Leeds and York Partnership NHS Foundation Trust, Leeds, UK
Simon R. White
Affiliation:
Department of Psychiatry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK MRC Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
Jonathan Lewis
Affiliation:
Cambridgeshire and Peterborough NHS Foundation Trust, Cambridge, UK
Rebecca Dunning
Affiliation:
Humber Teaching NHS Foundation Trust, Hull, UK
Shahrin Hasan
Affiliation:
Tees, Esk and Wear Valleys NHS Foundation Trust, Darlington, UK
Benjamin R. Underwood*
Affiliation:
Cambridgeshire and Peterborough NHS Foundation Trust, Cambridge, UK Department of Psychiatry, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK
*
Correspondence: Benjamin R. Underwood. Email: bru20@cam.ac.uk
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Abstract

Background

Although dementia is a terminal condition, palliation can be a challenge for clinical services. As dementia progresses, people frequently develop behavioural and psychological symptoms, sometimes so severe they require care in specialist dementia mental health wards. Although these are often a marker of late disease, there has been little research on the mortality of people admitted to these wards.

Aims

We sought to describe the mortality of this group, both on-ward and after discharge, and to investigate clinical features predicting 1-year mortality.

Method

First, we conducted a retrospective analysis of 576 people with dementia admitted to the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough National Health Service (NHS) Foundation Trust dementia wards over an 8-year period. We attempted to identify predictors of mortality and build predictive machine learning models. To investigate deaths occurring during admission, we conducted a second analysis as a retrospective service evaluation involving mental health wards for people with dementia at four NHS trusts, including 1976 admissions over 7 years.

Results

Survival following admission showed high variability, with a median of 1201 days (3.3 years). We were not able to accurately predict those at high risk of death from clinical data. We found that on-ward mortality remains rare but had increased from 3 deaths per year in 2013 to 13 in 2019.

Conclusions

We suggest that arrangements to ensure effective palliation are available on all such wards. It is not clear where discussions around end-of-life care are best placed in the dementia pathway, but we suggest it should be considered at admission.

Information

Type
Paper
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2025. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of Royal College of Psychiatrists
Figure 0

Fig. 1 Kaplan–Meier survival curve following admission to a psychiatric ward. Kaplan–Meier survival analysis shows that, following admission to the ward, patients from the cohort had a median survival length of 1201 days (3.3 years). (For reference, 1000 days is 2.7 years, 2000 days is 5.5 years, 3000 days is 8.2 years and 4000 days is 11 years.)

Figure 1

Fig. 2 Area under the receiving operator curve (AUROC) for models predicting death within 1 year. AUROC was calculated for eight different algorithms (classification and regression trees (CART), generalised linear model (GLM), k-nearest neighbours (KNN), linear discriminant analysis (LDA), naive Bayesian (NB), neural network (NN), random forest (RF) and support vector machine (SVM)) for outcomes of either death within 1 year or no death.

Figure 2

Fig. 3 Mortality rate per admission against time in four wards. The plot includes the observed data (as deaths/admissions), the null model (blue) and the year-related model (red). Model fits are shown with 95% CIs. The likelihood ratio test (chi-squared 9.93 on 1 degree of freedom, P = 0.0016) supports year as a covariate in the model. All modelling techniques used found a statistically significant association between year and mortality, with the latter as a proportion of admissions increasing over time. Because Poisson regression models the log-rate, we have included calendar year as a linear covariate in the log-rate model; hence, when plotting the rate (the exponential of log-rate) we see a non-linear trend.

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