Hostname: page-component-77f85d65b8-8wtlm Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2026-04-17T23:03:17.236Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

What To Do (and Not to Do) with Time-Series Cross-Section Data

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  25 September 2012

Nathaniel Beck  and
Jonathan N. Katz
Nathaniel Beck
Affiliation:
University of California, San Diego
Jonathan N. Katz
Affiliation:
California Institute of Technology
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

We examine some issues in the estimation of time-series cross-section models, calling into question the conclusions of many published studies, particularly in the field of comparative political economy. We show that the generalized least squares approach of Parks produces standard errors that lead to extreme overconfidence, often underestimating variability by 50% or more. We also provide an alternative estimator of the standard errors that is correct when the error structures show complications found in this type of model. Monte Carlo analysis shows that these “panel-corrected standard errors” perform well. The utility of our approach is demonstrated via a reanalysis of one “social democratic corporatist” model.

Information

Type
Articles
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 89 , Issue 3 , September 1995 , pp. 634 - 647
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 1995

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Article purchase

Temporarily unavailable

References

Alvarez, R. Michael, Garrett, Geoffrey, and Lange, Peter. 1991. “Government Partisanship, Labor Organization, and Mac-roeconomic Performance.” American Political Science Review 85:539–56.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Beck, Nathaniel, and Katz, Jonathan N.. N.d. “Nuisance or Substance: Specifying and Estimating Times-Series–Cross-Section Models.” Political Analysis. Forthcoming.Google Scholar
Beck, Nathaniel, Katz, Jonathan N., Alvarez, R. Michael, Garrett, Geoffrey, and Lange, Peter. 1993. “Government Partisanship, Labor Organization, and Macroeconomic Performance: A Corrigendum.” American Political Science Review 87:945–48.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cramer, J. 1986. Econometric Applications of Maximum Likelihood Methods. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Freedman, David, and Peters, Stephen. 1984. “Bootstrapping a Regression Equation: Some Empirical Results.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 79:97–106.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Friedland, Roger, and Sanders, Jimmy. 1985. “The Public Economy and Economic Growth in Western Market Economies.” American Sociological Review 50:421–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Giles, Michael, and Hertz, Kaenan. 1994. “Racial Threat and Partisan Identification.” American Political Science Review 88:317–26.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hicks, Alexander. 1994a. “Introduction to Pooling.” In The Comparative Political Economy of the Welfare State, ed. Janooski, Thomas and Hicks, Alexander. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Hicks, Alexander. 1994b. “The Social Democratic Corporatist Model of Economic Performance in Short- and Medium-Run Perspective.” In The Comparative Political Economy of the Welfare State, ed. Janoski, Thomas and Hicks, Alexander. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Hicks, Alexander, and Swank, Duane. 1992. “Politics, Institutions and Welfare Spending in Industrialized Democracies, 1960–1982.” American Political Science Review 86:658–74.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hsaio, Cheng. 1986. Analysis of Panel Data. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Hurwicz, L. 1950. “Least-Squares Bias in Time Series.” In Statistical Inference in Dynamic Economic Models, ed. Koopmans, T.. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Janoski, Thomas, and Hicks, Alexander. 1994. The Comparative Political Economy of the Welfare State. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kakwani, N. 1967. “The Uniasedness of Zellner's Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equation Estimators.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 62:141–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kmenta, Jan. 1986. Elements of Econometrics. 2d ed.New York: Macmillan.Google Scholar
Levobic, James. 1994. “Riding Waves or Making Waves? The Services and the U.S. Defense Budget, 1981–1993.” American Political Science Review 88:839–52.Google Scholar
Lin, Stephen. 1994. “Government Spending and Economic Growth.” Applied Economics 26:83–94.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pampel, Fred. 1993. “Relative Cohort Size and Fertility: The Socio-political Context of the Easterlin Effect.” American Sociological Review 58:496–514.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pampel, F., and Williamson, J.. 1988. “Welfare Spending in Advanced Industrial Democracies, 1950–1980.” American Journal of Sociology 93:1424–56.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Parks, Richard. 1967. “Efficient Estimation of a System of Regression Equations When Disturbances Are Both Serially and Contemporaneously Correlated.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 62:500–509.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Polline, Brian. 1989. “Does Trade Still Follow the Flag?” American Political Science Review 83:465–80.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rosh, Robert M. 1988. “Third World Militarization.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 32:771–98.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schneider, Saundra K., and Ingraham, Patricia. 1984. “The Impact of Political Participation on Social Policy Adoption and Expansion.” Comparative Politics 17:107–21.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Scholz, John T., Twombly, Jim, and Headrick, Barbara. 1991. “Street-level Political Controls over Federal Bureaucracy.” American Political Science Review 85:829–50.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Scholz, J., and Wei, F. H.. 1986. “Regulatory Enforcement in a Federalist System.” American Political Science Review 80:1249–70.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stimson, James. 1985. “Regression in Space and Time: A Statistical Essay.” American Journal of Political Science 29:914–47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Su, Tsai-tsu, Kamlet, Mark, and Mowery, David. 1993. “Modeling United States Budgetary and Fiscal Policy Outcomes—a Disaggregated, Systemwide Perspective.” American Journal of Political Science 37:213–45.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Swank, Duane. 1992. “Politics and the Structural Dependence of the State in Democratic Capitalist Nations.” American Political Science Review 86:38–54.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
White, Halbert. 1980. “A Heteroscedasticity-consistent Covariance Matrix and a Direct Test for Heteroscedasticity.” Econometrica 48:817–38.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wood, B. Dan. 1992. “Modeling Federal Implementation as a System: The Clean Air Case.” American Journal of Political Science 36:40–67.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Submit a response

Comments

No Comments have been published for this article.