8.2.1 Insights from Energy Transition Studies

Energy transition studies provide insights into how sequential events lead to shifts in energy generation and consumption patterns. Energy transitions involve changes in fuels and their associated technologies and systems (Hirsh & Jones, Reference Hirsh and Jones2014), including economic systems (Fouquet & Pearson, Reference Fouquet and Pearson2012) and their rise to claim substantial market shares (Smil, Reference Smil2010a,Reference Smilb). On average, energy transitions have been observed to progress from an initial share of 1%–10% of the energy consumption for a particular service in a specific sector, eventually reaching 50%, 90% and even 99% (Grubler et al., Reference Grubler, Wilson and Nemet2016). The duration from the invention of a critical technology to an 80% share of energy consumption averages around 95 years (Fouquet, Reference Fouquet2016), indicating a relatively slow pace. However, it is important to note that such state changes proceed non-linearly compared to typical technological diffusion and substitution (Grubler, Reference Grubler1996).

Historical energy transitions further illustrate the concepts of speed, duration and acceleration. The Netherlands’ transition to fossil gas, Ontario’s coal retirements and Denmark’s shift to heat and power systems occurred relatively quickly, demonstrating that rapid transitions are possible (Sovacool, Reference Sovacool, Hess, Amir, Geels, Hirsh, Medina and Yearley2020). Similarly, Indonesia’s shift from kerosene to gas for cooking was achieved in just 10 years (Thoday et al., Reference Thoday, Benjamin, Gan and Puzzolo2018). Additionally, the rapid transition from incandescent bulbs to LED lighting exemplifies swift changes in consumption patterns (International Energy Agency, 2020; Zissis et al., Reference Zissis, Bertoldi and Serrenho2021). The transportation sector also showcases accelerated sustainability transitions. The shift from horse-drawn transportation to railways in the 1850s occurred within a few decades (Geels, Reference Geels2005). More recently, the transition from internal combustion engines to electric vehicles is gaining momentum (Bloomberg NEF, 2021; Muratori et al., Reference Muratori, Alexander, Arent, Bazilian, Cazzola, Dede and Ward2021), driven by advances in battery technology, declining costs and increasing consumer demand for sustainable transportation (Muratori et al., Reference Muratori, Alexander, Arent, Bazilian, Cazzola, Dede and Ward2021).

8.2.2 Critiques and Considerations

Despite these examples of rapid transitions, some scholars argue that complex technological and economic factors can slow down rapid changes. For instance, Smil (Reference Smil2016) notes that historical global energy transitions have often taken considerable time, citing that coal took 60 years to provide half of the world’s energy supply. The global energy system remains heavily reliant on fossil fuels, with little evidence that the transition away from coal is accelerating. In response to scepticism about rapid transitions, Grubler et al. (Reference Grubler, Wilson and Nemet2016) offer a nuanced critique, suggesting that the speed of past transitions should be understood in light of factors such as the complexity of the technology, the length of the formative phases in technology development, spatial diffusion and market size. They argue that future sustainability transitions will differ significantly from historical ones. Rapid transitions are often characterised by substituting older technologies with established alternatives without significant disruption or the need for integration with existing infrastructures. Successful transitions also benefit from knowledge spillovers, smaller markets (e.g. Ontario’s transition to hydropower (Sovacool, Reference Sovacool2016; Rosenbloom et al., Reference Rosenbloom, Haley and Meadowcroft2018)) and tangible advantages for end-users, such as improved health outcomes (e.g. Indonesia’s switch to LPG cooking (Sovacool, Reference Sovacool2016; Thoday et al., Reference Thoday, Benjamin, Gan and Puzzolo2018)), convenience and well-coordinated public policies (e.g. France’s adoption of nuclear energy (Jasper, Reference Jasper2014)).

8.2.3 The Concept of Timescapes

While speed, duration and acceleration are key aspects of temporalities in sustainability transitions, another important dimension is timescapes, a concept that integrates various temporal dynamics. Derived from Appadurai’s (Reference Appadurai1996) notion of scapes, timescapes reflect the complex interplay of temporal rhythms and structures (Bornemann & Strassheim, Reference Bornemann and Strassheim2019). Scapes are dynamic constructs that encompass various dimensions of global cultural flows, interactions and imaginaries (Appadurai, Reference Appadurai1996). A timescape, therefore, refers to the intricate interplay of temporal dimensions within sustainability transitions, including the rhythms, sequencing and temporal structures that influence speed, duration and acceleration. Timescapes are not static; they are interconnected and constantly evolving networks shaped by global cultural processes, such as the Paris Agreement and visions of sustainable futures (cf. Bornemann & Strassheim, Reference Bornemann and Strassheim2019). This concept suggests the complexities and interconnections inherent in contemporary global dynamics, emphasising the role of culture, communication and power – akin to ‘landscape pressures’ in the Multilevel Perspective (see Chapter 2) – in shaping the trajectories of sustainability transitions in the modern world.

8.3.1 Temporality, Technological Choices and Innovation

The field of sustainability transition research emphasises the importance of considering the timeline of socio-technical developments, which can range from long-term social and cultural shifts to short-term changes in practices and project implementations (Geels & Schot, Reference Geels and Schot2007). For example, Grubler et al. (Reference Grubler, Wilson and Nemet2016) highlight the relationship between the speed of transitions and the complexity of technological systems. They argue that complex transitions are slower because new, intricate socio-technical combinations require significant time to emerge (cf. Loorbach et al., Reference Loorbach, Rotmans, Kemp, de Roo and Hillier2016). The longevity of large-scale energy infrastructures and industries (Smil, Reference Smil2016) has resulted in significant carbon lock-ins and path-dependent futures within established socio-technical systems (Unruh, Reference Unruh2000).

Within the timescapes of sustainability transitions, it is crucial to distinguish between a ‘grand’ transition – characterised by pervasive changes in a socio-technical system that affect resources, carriers and end-use applications – and the concepts of substitution and diffusion (Grubler et al., Reference Grubler, Wilson and Nemet2016). Substitution involves replacing one technology with another without disrupting or needing to integrate existing institutions and infrastructures. In contrast, diffusion refers to the gradual adoption of technology over time. While substitution can occur rapidly, Grubler et al. (Reference Grubler, Wilson and Nemet2016) suggest that both diffusion and a ‘grand’ transition are inherently lengthy processes involving interrelated technologies, infrastructures and institutions. Consequently, these lengthy processes may contribute to a slower transition.

8.3.2 Temporality, Income and Consumption

Historical evidence indicates a strong correlation between the speed of sustainability transitions and shifts in resource consumption from one energy source to another. For example, the transition from biomass to coal in the late nineteenth century, followed by the shift from coal to oil after World War II (Fouquet, Reference Fouquet2016; Pearson, Reference Pearson, Webb, Wade and Tingey2021), highlights the close relationship between resource consumption patterns and sustainability transitions. As more individuals transition from fossil fuel-powered cars to electric vehicles (Sioshansi & Webb, Reference Sioshansi and Webb2019), a projected increase in energy demand is anticipated (Bogdanov et al., Reference Bogdanov, Ram, Aghahosseini, Gulagi, Oyewo, Child and Breyer2021). This rise in the adoption of new technologies, particularly as their costs decrease, can stimulate demand for sustainable alternatives and further accelerate the sustainability transition. Additionally, the growing utilisation of AI computing power and servers, expected to contribute to an uptick in electricity consumption, may also impact overall energy demand (Koot & Wijnhoven, Reference Koot and Wijnhoven2021).

Historically, rising incomes have led to increased energy demand, as seen in the UK (Fouquet, Reference Fouquet2016). This trend suggests that sustainability transitions can accelerate as energy consumption increases in industrialising economies, particularly in developing countries now and in the future (Delina, Reference Delina2017; Kober et al., Reference Kober, Schiffer, Densing and Panos2020). While heightened energy demand may incentivise continued reliance on fossil infrastructure, it also signals a growing market for sustainable energy alternatives. As energy demand rises, a critical opportunity exists to redirect investments and innovations towards sustainable energy solutions, thereby driving the acceleration and scaling up of energy transitions.

8.3.3 Temporality and Markets

Time and cost reductions are other critical factors for accelerating sustainability transitions. Prices are crucial in these rapid shifts, particularly regarding the willingness to invest in niche technologies (Geels et al., Reference Geels, Kern and Clark2023). A historical example is the transition from gas to electric lighting in the late nineteenth century, where theatres and restaurants adopted electric lighting despite the higher costs (Fouquet, Reference Fouquet2016). Although renewable technologies have proven their affordability and market readiness (IRENA, 2019; Timilsina, Reference Timilsina2021; Luderer et al., Reference Luderer, Madeddu, Merfort, Ueckerdt, Pehl, Pietzcker and Kriegler2022), many developing countries still need prices to decrease further to compete with fossil fuels (Delina, Reference Delina2017). Lowering these costs could facilitate a faster transition (Fouquet, Reference Fouquet2016). An illustrative example of a tipping point is the significant drop in solar and wind power costs over the past decade, making them increasingly competitive with conventional fossil fuels (IRENA, 2019; Luderer et al., Reference Luderer, Madeddu, Merfort, Ueckerdt, Pehl, Pietzcker and Kriegler2022). Furthermore, projections from the International Renewable Energy Agency (2020) indicate that these cost declines are expected to continue, further expediting the transition to renewable energy sources.

In addition to cost reductions, the time required to construct renewable energy infrastructure has also decreased (Luderer et al., Reference Luderer, Madeddu, Merfort, Ueckerdt, Pehl, Pietzcker and Kriegler2022). This reduction in both temporal and financial investments for establishing renewable energy systems enhances the feasibility of transitioning to sustainable energy sources, thereby fostering a swifter adoption of renewables (Bloomberg NEF, 2021; Luderer et al., Reference Luderer, Madeddu, Merfort, Ueckerdt, Pehl, Pietzcker and Kriegler2022). However, factors such as the stage of diffusion, the sequence of spatial diffusion and market size influence changes in market shares (Grubler et al., Reference Grubler, Wilson and Nemet2016). To accelerate sustainability transitions, sustainable technologies and systems must be implemented simultaneously, supported by appropriate policies and deployed across multiple market sizes (Way et al., Reference Way, Ives, Mealy and Farmer2022).

Policymakers must collaborate with influential actors, such as investors, to drive this change. However, partnering with established players can create tensions, especially when they control the technologies and intellectual property essential for rapid transitions (Ciplet and Harrison, Reference Ciplet and Harrison2020). This dynamic may result in large-scale transition pathways that neglect local and small-scale initiatives, which are crucial for ensuring just transitions (Newell et al., Reference Newell, Geels and Sovacool2022; van Bommel & Höffken, Reference van Bommel and Höffken2023). As a result, financial actors with the capital needed to accelerate transitions often prioritise large-scale investments, further sidelining smaller efforts.

8.3.4 Temporality, Politics, Institutions and Policy

Sustainability transitions involve various actors and institutions, including policymakers, government and the market (Sanderink & Nasiritousi, Reference Sanderink and Nasiritousi2020; Delina, Reference Delina2017; also see Chapters 3 and 14 in this book). Understanding the pace of these transitions requires considering factors like temporality, politics, institutions and policies. Supportive measures, such as subsidies, equitable market conditions and effective institutional arrangements, are crucial in facilitating sustainability transitions (Delina, Reference Delina2017).

Subsidies and other supportive policies can help bridge the cost gap between sustainable and traditional technologies, especially in developing countries where sustainable options remain expensive (Rentschler & Bazilian, Reference Rentschler and Bazilian2017; BNEF, 2020). Additionally, fostering a fair market landscape through policies that promote competition and prevent market distortions is integral to successful sustainability transitions (Rentschler & Bazilian, Reference Rentschler and Bazilian2017). Supportive institutional arrangements, including regulatory frameworks and development support, also create an enabling environment for accelerating sustainability transitions (IEA, 2020; Delina, Reference Delina2017; also see Chapters 5 and 14). However, political and institutional factors can significantly influence sustainability transitions. For instance, a concentrated nuclear industry with substantial political influence in France has likely slowed the country’s shift to renewables (Jasper, Reference Jasper2014). Similarly, in the United States, heavy lobbying by fossil fuel companies has likely obstructed climate policy and energy transition efforts (Downie, Reference Downie2019). Thus, the pace and timescapes of sustainability transitions are contingent upon evolving political dynamics and interests.

8.3.5 Temporality, End-Users and the Public

Sustainability transitions are socially complex, making it essential to understand the public’s role and the passage of time (Skjølsvold & Coenen, Reference Skjølsvold and Coenen2021; Küpers & Batel, Reference Küpers and Batel2023). The public significantly influences processes that ensure a just transition. Social movements, such as the climate action movement, have raised awareness and pressured governments to shift towards renewable energy sources (IPCC, 2018; Komendantova, Reference Komendantova2021). Community energy projects empower local communities to develop and own renewable energy sources, fostering public support for the transition (Bauwens, Reference Bauwens2019). Germany’s Energiewende, supported by public backing, has successfully increased the share of renewable energy in its energy mix (Heinrich, Reference Heinrich2018). Additionally, in-my-backyard movements focus on developing renewable energy sources locally while addressing community concerns (Sovacool, Reference Sovacool2019).

Understanding the diverse interests of the public (Skjølsvold & Coenen, Reference Skjølsvold and Coenen2021) is crucial for policymakers and researchers aiming to accelerate sustainability transitions. Policymakers must consider this diversity (see Chapter 12) when designing effective and just policies, while researchers should incorporate these factors in their analyses. The ability of end-users to adapt to their changing needs and desires (Grubler et al., Reference Grubler, Wilson and Nemet2016; Süsser et al., Reference Süsser, Gaschnig, Ceglarz, Stavrakas, Flamos and Lilliestam2022) also influences the speed of sustainability transitions. These varied end-user experiences inform technology development and promote broader sustainability innovations, including knowledge spillovers, entrepreneurialism and niche applications for pilots and demonstrations (Blanco et al., Reference Blanco, de Coninck, Agbemabiese, Anadon, Lim, Pengue and Winkler2022). However, addressing the tension between inclusive participation and the pace of sustainability transitions is vital, broadening the debate on transition speed. This is especially crucial for including often-excluded actors, groups and regions, recognising and analysing polycentric governance (Newell et al., Reference Newell, Geels and Sovacool2022; Skjølsvold & Coenen, Reference Skjølsvold and Coenen2021; see Chapters 9, 15 and 21 in this book), and considering justice issues, particularly human rights and environmental impacts, in sustainability transition policies (van Bommel & Höffken, Reference van Bommel and Höffken2023).

8.3.6 Temporality and Just Transitions

Accelerated sustainability transitions can negatively impact vulnerable populations facing resource access challenges and marginalisation. For instance, studies indicate that rural communities may be left behind in the energy transition if policymakers do not prioritise energy access (Clausen & Rudolph, Reference Clausen and Rudolph2020; Chan & Delina, Reference Chan and Delina2023). A historical example is the introduction of steam engines during the Industrial Revolution, which led to rapid urbanisation and increased urban consumption (Allen, Reference Allen2009), leaving rural areas underdeveloped and exacerbating poverty in remote areas (Acheampong et al., Reference Acheampong, Nghiem, Dzator and Rajaguru2023; see Chapter 23; cf. Chapter 22). Today, the most energy-poor members of society, often living in remote areas without electricity grid access, are also the poorest (Hanke et al., Reference Hanke, Grossmann and Sandmann2023; see Chapter 23). Although renewable energy projects in rural areas have the potential to provide electricity and create employment opportunities for those living in poverty, challenges such as lack of financing, technical expertise and supportive policies hinder these benefits (Sergi et al., Reference Sergi, Babcock, Williams, Thornburg, Loew and Ciez2018; Fathoni et al., Reference Fathoni, Setyowati and Prest2021; see Chapter 15). Furthermore, large-scale renewable energy projects in countries like Ghana and Mexico seem to have only minimally benefited rural communities (Bukhari et al., Reference Bukari, Kemausuor, Quansah and Adaramola2021; de Jesus Fernandez & Watson, Reference de Jesus Fernandez and Watson2022).

To prevent the marginalisation of rural populations in sustainability transitions, policymakers are well advised to prioritise resource access and design projects that consider the needs of local communities (Clausen & Rudolph, Reference Clausen and Rudolph2020). Successful community-led sustainability initiatives, such as the First Nations-led renewable energy projects in Canada (Stefanelli et al., Reference Stefanelli, Walker, Kornelsen, Lewis, Martin, Masuda and Castleden2019), highlight the importance of prioritising resource access for marginalised communities, potentially through subsidies for off-grid renewable energy systems (Gebreslassie et al., Reference Gebreslassie, Cuvilas, Zalengera, To, Baptista, Robin and Castán Broto2022). However, it is crucial to recognise that enhanced stakeholder engagement, such as through ‘energy democracy’, which aims to empower local communities in energy decision-making, may lead to uneven opportunities for participation when certain groups dominate the dialogue or when resources for engagement are inequitably distributed, perpetuating inequalities in access and representation (Newell et al., Reference Newell, Geels and Sovacool2022). This may result in place-related injustices, such as the exclusion of rural voices in decision-making processes, the prioritisation of urban over rural needs and the unequal distribution of environmental benefits and burdens (Skjølsvold & Coenen, Reference Skjølsvold and Coenen2021) (also see Chapter 16 in this book).

8.4.1 Inter, Multi- and Trans-Disciplinary Research

Examining the temporal dimensions within sustainability transitions represents a significant area of research that warrants greater attention. Diverse temporal understandings and their connections to various aspects of sustainability transitions exist across different societies and contexts. Therefore, it is key for future research to explore the heterogeneous and global interpretations of competing timeframes (Delina & Janetos, Reference Delina2017). Furthermore, recognising that these temporalities are intertwined with power dynamics and politics is vital, similar to the role of technologies in transitions (Jasanoff, Reference Jasanoff, Jasanoff and Kim2015; Delina & Janetos, Reference Delina2017).

To investigate the political underpinnings of temporalities in sustainability transition research, future studies could examine broader conceptions of political and social structures encapsulated within temporal frameworks. It is also vital to consider whose voices are amplified and who is marginalised, as well as how temporal structures in sustainability transitions may exacerbate vulnerability or enhance resilience. By probing these issues, researchers can critically assess the political dimensions of pressing sustainability transition targets, such as deadlines for achieving net-zero economies (Marquardt & Delina, Reference Marquardt and Delina2021).

Interdisciplinary, multidisciplinary and transdisciplinary research approaches offer valuable avenues for comprehensively exploring temporalities within sustainability transition research (Kleinman, Reference Kleinman2018; Sovacool et al., Reference Sovacool, Hess, Amir, Geels, Hirsh, Medina and Yearley2020). By collaborating with scholars from diverse fields, researchers can better understand the intricate and evolving processes involved in sustainability transitions. Interdisciplinary research integrates insights and methodologies from various disciplines to address temporal research inquiries (Thompson Klein et al., Reference Thompson Klein2001). In contrast, multidisciplinary research employs different perspectives to tackle a shared research question. For instance, interdisciplinary studies on the temporal aspects of sustainability transitions may involve partnerships between economists, sociologists and environmental scientists to comprehend the economic, social and ecological ramifications of various sustainability transition scenarios. Transdisciplinary research combines knowledge and methodologies from multiple disciplines while actively engaging non-academic actors to address temporal issues in sustainability transition studies (Thompson Klein et al., Reference Thompson Klein2001).

8.4.2 Multi- and Mixed-Methods Research Approaches

Multi-method research approaches provide a valuable means to examine and study the temporalities of sustainability transitions (Shove & Walker, Reference Shove and Walker2014; Geels, Reference Geels2018; Sovacool et al., Reference Sovacool, Hess, Amir, Geels, Hirsh, Medina and Yearley2020). By combining qualitative and quantitative methods, researchers can better understand the complex and dynamic processes involved. Relying on a single method may fail to capture the full range of factors influencing sustainability transitions, as it can overlook critical perspectives and nuances that a multi-faceted approach can reveal.

Qualitative methods, such as interviews and focus groups, offer insights into the experiences, perspectives (see Chapter 19) and values of sustainability transition actors (see Chapters 12 and 17). Conversely, quantitative methods, including statistical analysis and modelling, help identify patterns and trends in resource use, technology acceptance and sustainability transitions over time. Moreover, multi- and mixed-methods research can help overcome the limitations of individual approaches (Sovacool et al., Reference Sovacool, Hess, Amir, Geels, Hirsh, Medina and Yearley2020). For instance, while small sample sizes may restrict qualitative methods, quantitative methods may only partially capture the nuances of social and cultural factors influencing sustainability transitions. By integrating different research methods, researchers can provide a more holistic view of the intricate processes involved in energy transitions, ultimately informing policy and practice (Strengers, Reference Strengers2018).