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Modeling the greenhouse gas emissions of an immunization program against respiratory syncytial virus in infants in the United Kingdom

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  22 September 2025

Richard D.A. Hudson*
Affiliation:
Health Outcomes, Sanofi , Reading, UK
Thierry Rigoine de Fougerolles
Affiliation:
CVA, Paris, France
Flora Leadley
Affiliation:
CVA, London, UK
Mersha Chetty
Affiliation:
Health Outcomes, Sanofi , Reading, UK
Priscille De La Tour
Affiliation:
Environment & Health, Sanofi, Paris, France
*
Corresponding author: Richard D.A. Hudson; Email: richard.hudson@sanofi.com
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Abstract

Objectives

The healthcare system accounts for 4 percent of United Kingdom (UK) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions annually. In response to climate change, the National Health Service (NHS) is calling for less carbon-intensive care practices through prevention. Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV), a leading cause of infant hospitalization, currently has no widespread immunization program in the UK. This study estimates the impact on GHG emissions generated within the care pathway from an immunization against RSV in all infants in the UK with nirsevimab, a new monoclonal antibody used in prophylaxis.

Methods

A novel approach was applied, mapping care pathway emissions from immunization and avoiding RSV-related primary and secondary care burden. Avoided healthcare resources were estimated using a published health economic model for nirsevimab versus standard of care (SoC), which is characterized as receiving palivizumab or having no immunization intervention, assuming different universal immunization scenarios. NHS England GHG emission factors were applied to each health outcome to measure the GHG emissions associated with a nirsevimab versus SoC strategy.

Results

Compared with SoC, a universal immunization program using nirsevimab leads to avoided GHG emissions, amounting to ~22 kilotons of CO2 equivalents per year, with immunizing all UK infants at birth leading to the greatest reduction. About 40 percent of avoided emissions were from reductions in inpatient hospitalizations.

Conclusions

This study shows how prevention can deliver benefits to people, NHS system capacity, and the environment. However, avoided patient care pathway emissions must be considered alongside drug lifecycle emissions, which are not included here.

Information

Type
Method
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.
Copyright
© Aventis Pharma Limited, 2025. Published by Cambridge University Press
Figure 0

Figure 1. Schematic comparing product life cycle assessment and patient care pathway analysis. Source: Sustainable Healthcare Coalition. Available from https://shcoalition.org/sustainable-care-pathways-guidance/. Accessed 29 July 2025.

Figure 1

Figure 2. Patient care pathways for palivizumab and nirsevimab immunization.Note: (i) immunization includes the materials used during the immunization process (use of ethanol, cotton and bandages for each injection) and excludes the GHG footprint of the product accident and emergency (A&E), average (avg.), general practitioner (GP), intensive care unit (ICU), National Immunisation Programme (NIP), primary care (PC).(ii) product manufacturing, distribution, and disposal emissions are excluded from this analysis.

Figure 2

Table 1. RSV disease burden and healthcare utilization in infants in the UK, as modeled for standard of care, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2

Figure 3

Table 2. Patient care pathway CO2eq for a universal RSV immunization program using nirsevimab in the UK, as modeled for Standard of Care, Scenario 1 and Scenario 2