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Index

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  27 November 2025

Peter J. Katzenstein
Peter J. Katzenstein
Affiliation:
Cornell University, New York

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Type
Chapter
Information
Entanglements in World Politics
The Power of Uncertainty
 , pp. 447 - 458
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2025
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BYCreative Common License - NC
This content is Open Access and distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence CC-BY-NC 4.0 https://creativecommons.org/cclicenses/

Index

Abbott, Andrew, 273, 330–331
Able Archer (NATO exercise), 216–217
Abolafia, Mitchel, 165–166
accounting, financial, 157–158, 313
Acheson, Dean, 221
actor-network theory, 96–97
adaptation
and global warming. See mitigation and adaptation
Aesop, 343
affirmation, and power, 286
Africa, uranium mining, 198
Akerlof, George, 147
Alaska, 254
Albee, Edward, 91
Algeria, 215
algorithms, 225, 260, 264see also predictive large language models (LLMs)
Allan, Bentley, 229, 231, 349
Allison, Graham, 179, 193–194, 195
Altman, Roger, 272
Altman, Sam, 258
Amazon, 225
ambiguity, tolerance of, 21
analytic confidence, 56 see also Friedman, Jeffrey
ancient Rome, 254
Anderson, Robert, 196–197
Andropov, Yuri, 217
Antarctica, 236–237
Anthropocene, 12, 228, 246–255
anthropocentrism, 47–48, 90, 98–99, 263
antifragility, 230–231
Arab Spring, 68, 295
arbitrage (risk-free trading), 11, 160, 313
Arctic icecap, 237
Arendt, Hannah, 29
Arfi, Badredine, 68
Aristotle, 73–74, 304–305
Arkhipov, Vasili, 192–193
arms control, 288
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), 261–263
Artificial Intelligence (AI), 88–89, 222–223, 224–226
and consciousness, 261–265
and language, 265–269
and LLMs, 12
and p(doom), 103
and technospheres, 255–261
Asia, economic rise of, 255
Asian international relations theories, and religion, 353–354
assemblages of objects/humans, 200–201
astro-biology, 248
Australia, 233, 238–239
Avant, Deborah, 19
Axelrod, Robert, 282
Bain, William, 353
Bakewell, Sarah, 26
banking
bailouts, 171, 172
finance theory and economic stories in, 11
see also central banks; investment banking; securitization, as convention; Wall Street
Barad, Karen, 8, 13–15, 303–304
bargaining model of war, 209–214
baseball, 13
Baudrillard, Jean, 59
Bayes, Thomas, 56–57 see also Bayesian models
Bayesian models, 55–56, 57
Beamish, Thomas, 149
Beck, Ulrich, 17, 286–287
Becker, Gary, 49
Beckert, Jens, 109
Beckett, Samuel, 329
bees, 263
behavioral economics, 57
Beijing Olympics, 2008, 240–241
beliefs, 54–55, 57–58, 59, 73, 147see also Bayesian models; common knowledge; Soros, George; worldviews
Bénabou, Roland, 159
Bennett, Jane, 93
Bensel, Richard, 110
Beresford-Kroeger, Diana, 99
Bergson, Henri, 8, 354
Berlin, Isaiah, 6
Bernanke, Ben, 135, 152
Bernstein, Peter, 19
Bernstein, Steven, 245, 266
biases, 56, 57, 113
Biden, Joe, 212–214
and China, 207
see also Ukraine war
Biggart, Nicole, 149
Binmore, Ken, 49
biological approaches, and geoengineering, 231–232
biosphere, and Anthropocene, 246–249
bitcoin, 290–291
Black, Fischer, 139, 154
Black-Scholes option-pricing model, 313
Blakely, Jason, 264
Blastland, Michael, 2
Blaug, Mark, 119
Blight, James, 184, 185, 186, 187, 188, 202
Blinder, Alan, 166
“Blue New Deal,” 237, 238
Blyth, Mark, 137, 139, 154–155
Bo Yuan Chang, 101
Bohm, David, 6, 92, 328
Bohr, Niels, 13–15, 66, 67, 82–83, 86, 297, 299–301, 357
and Barad, 303
and indeterminacy, 87
“Bomb as God” metaphor, 207–208
Bookstaber, Richard, 307
Borges, Jorge Luis, 74
Born, Max, 82, 86
Bradbury, Malcolm, 19
Brand, Stuart, 233
Brandom, Robert, 347
Braumoeller, Bear, 210
Britain, and the ERM, 146
Brody, Howard, 280
Bronck, Richard, 109
Brooks, David, 42–43, 271
Brown, Laura, 99
Bruner, Jerome, 106
Buber, Martin, 6
Buchanan, Mark, 173
Buddhism, 353–354
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, 337–338
Bull, Hedley, 212
bullshitting, 297 see also Trump, Donald
Burckhardt, Jakob, 127
Burkeman, Oliver, 21
Byrnes, Timothy, 355
calculable risk, in late modernity, 18
Callon, Michel, 162
Campbell, Donald T., 115–116, 125
Camus, Albert, 349–350
capitalism, 18, 33, 37–38, 225, 254
carbon budgets, 242
carbon capture, 232
carbon dioxide removal (CDR), 237, 238
carbon lock-in, 243–244
carbon pricing, 241–242
carbon sinks, 288–289
Carlsen, Magnus, 282–283
cars, 250
Cartwright, Nancy, 59–60, 108, 117–118
Cassirer, Ernst, 22
Catholicism/Catholic church, 321, 355
Cattell, Raymond, 350
causation, 69, 82, 119–120
central banks
Federal Reserve. See Federal Reserve
and language/stories, 167
social power of, 166
Chakrabarty, Dipesh, 253, 254
chance, 16, 181, 279, 323, 356–357
and October 1962 crisis, 221
and protean power, 304–308
see also moral luck
Chaplin, Charlie, 21
chatbots, 267
ChatGPT, 258, 267
chess, 256–257, 282–283
Chicago school of economics, 49, 138
China, 123, 207, 219, 240–241
Chinese scholars, 101
Chittka, Lars, 263
Chomsky, Noam, 71, 268
Christian, Brian, 113
Cirillo, Pasquale, 210
Ćirković, Milan, 98–99
civic-mindedness, 130
Clapper, James, 272
Clark, Gordon, 155
Clarke, Kevin, 62
classical mechanics, and the Received View, 62
Clausewitz, Carl von, 211
climate change. See global warming
climate models, 242–243
Clinton, Hillary, 31
Cohen, Benjamin, 169
Cohen, Michael D., 282
Cohn, Carol, 206, 207
Cohn, Nate, 31
Cold War, 3–4, 43, 216, 231 see also nuclear weapons/deterrence theory; October 1962 crisis
Cole, Bryony, 267
collateralized debt obligations (CDOs), 142–143, 144, 151–152 see also securitization, as convention
collective beliefs
and conventions, 155–156
see also Soros, George
color identification and vocabulary, 327
common knowledge, 58–59
complementarity, 13–15, 67, 82–83, 300, 328
complexity/complex models, 128–130, 282
confidence, 55, 56 see also biases
Connolly, William, 93
consciousness, 27–28, 67, 86, 323, 352
and AI, 261–265 see also memory
consistency, 49, 50
contagion narrative, 165, 166, 173
context, 65–68
contingency, and moral luck, 340–341
control power, 275–287, 307–308
conventions, 149 see also securitization, as convention; social conventions
cosmology, 94–96, 170
cost-benefit calculations
and Schelling, 182 see also rational actor model
Cotra, Ajeya, 261–262
counter-terrorism, 289–290
COVID, 17, 48, 97, 345
theories and models, 112
Crawford, Kate, 258
“creative accounting,” 157
creativity, 110, 212see also imagination and play; protean power
credit derivatives. See derivatives
credit rating. See rating industry
critical realism, 100
Crutzen, Paul, 237, 250
crypto-currency, and AGI, 262
Cuban missile crisis. See October 1962 crisis
Cuban revolution 1958–1959, 204, 205
Cubism, 322
culture change, and language, 73–74
Da Vinci, Leonardo, 319
Dadaism, 323
Dahl, Robert, 12, 276, 306
daily life, reality of, 350
Dallas, Mark, 292
Damasio, Antonio, 199, 200
Daston, Lorraine, 22, 58
Davidson, Donald, 75, 347
decarbonization, 243–244, 245, 266
Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) approach, 339
decision theory, 48–49, 54, 137, 138, 139
“deep learning,” 260
Deep Mind, Google’s, 256–257
deep sea mining, 238–239
Deep Squeak, 268
defense, and the prediction industry, 13–14
defense experts, 205–206
deliberative metaphors, 76–77
Dell, Paul F., 284
DeMartino, George, 117–118
Dequech, David, 45–46
Der Derian, James, 81
derivatives, 149–150, 288, 313 see also securitization
Derman, Emanuel, 163, 170
Descartes, 26, 269
deterrence theory. See nuclear weapons/deterrence theory
Deudney, Daniel, 111, 227
Deutsch, Karl, 295
development economics, 123
Dewey, John, 28, 346–347, 356
Dickinson, Donna, 342–343
Didion, Joan, 64
Digeser, Peter, 284
digital ecospheres. See Artificial Intelligence (AI)
Dilthey, Wilhelm, 28–29, 33–36, 40, 186, 325
on methods of inquiry, 324–325
discourse, 13–15, 107, 302 see also language
DMDU approach. See Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) approach
Dobbs, Michael, 201–202
“Doomsday Machine,” 217–218
Dostoevsky, 6
Dowd, Kevin, 140
Drell, Sidney, 215–216
Dror, Yehezkel, 217–218
droughts, 233
Duara, Prasenjit, 239–240
Dunn, Rob, 92
Duvall, Raymond, 98
Earth System Science (ESS), 12, 112, 232, 248
and Gaia theory, 248
eclecticism, 329–332
ecocide, 227 see also global warming; mass extinctions
ecocriticism, 99
economic crashes. See financial crises
economy/economists
and banks/bankers, 334–335
and costs of climate change, 229–230
economic and population growth, twentieth century, 250
economic growth, and global warming, 254
economic laws, 163
and the FOMC, 164–166, 333–334
forecasting, 133
and language, 136–137
Russia, 1990s, 14
see also financial crises
Eden, Lynn, 198
Egginton, William, 19–20, 319
Einhorn, David, 155
Einstein, Albert, 7, 46, 79, 81, 84, 86, 105
El Salvador, 295
electricity. See energy consumption, and AI
elevator pitches, 114–115
elicitation interviews, and the October 1962 crisis, 185–186
Elizabeth II, Queen, 135
employment/unemployment, 257, 333–334 see also labor markets
energy consumption, and AI, 258–259
Engelen, Ewald, 151
Enron, 157
entropy, 109
environmental conflicts, 227
Epstein, Charlotte, 107
equilibrium-seeking systems, and economists, 173
European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM), 146
European Monetary Union (EMU), 159
evolutionary biology. See Pinker, Steven
exclusive economic zones (EEZ), 238
experience
lived, 185–186
and subjective probability, 57
see also consciousness
experimentation, 121–126, 332–333
experiments, 116–121
extinctions, species. See mass extinctions
extra-terrestrial life, 98–99
Facebook, 225
factor analysis, 350
fair value, 158
Farmer, Ted, 94
Fazal, Tanisha, 245
Fearon, James, 59, 210
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), 164–166, 333–334
Federal Reserve, 162–163, 167 see also Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC); Greenspan, Alan
Feynman, Richard, 306
film, 290
finance/finance theory, 11, 137–145, 162
financial contagion. See contagion narrative
financial crises
1982, 53
1987, 53
1997 (“Asian” or “IMF”), 69–70
2008, 1–2, 11, 57–58, 78, 132, 134–136, 162–163, 171, 312–313
see also economy/economists; Open Economy Politics (OEP); polycrisis; rating industry; securitization, as convention
financial economics, 157–158, 173
financial markets
and social devices, 146
see also rating industry
fire events, 197, 198
fire fighters, 349–350
Fisher, Walter, 106
flossing, 100
flows, mechanisms of, 323–324
Foreign Affairs, 63
forests, 93–94
Fortna, Page, 245
fortuna (chance). See chance
fossil fuels, 12, 224 see also geothermal energy; global warming; hydrocarbons
Foucault, Michel, 13–15, 301–303
Fox, Justin, 147
fracking, 12 see also geothermal energy
Frank, Adam, 95, 256
Frankopan, Peter, 252, 254
Frayn, Michael, Copenhagen, 329
French Revolution, 202, 255
Frieden, Jeff, 168
Friedman, George, 335–336
Friedman, Jeffrey, 55, 56
Friedman, Milton, 49, 138
Fuchs, Christopher, 84
Fuhrmann, Matthew, 194
fungi, 94 see also forests
futures markets, 161
Gagliano, Monica, 99
Gaia theory, 247–248
Galbraith, John Kenneth, 119, 340
Galileo, 321
Galileo Commission, 351
games and game theory, 58, 59, 188, 337–338 see also macroeconomics
Gardner, Dan, 338
Gartzke, Eric, 296
Gaussian statistics, 52–53, 140, 153 see also power law statistics
Gavin, Francis J., 194, 339–340
Gaza, 103–104
geoengineering, 12, 229–245
critics of, 232, 233–234
definition, 230
geothermal energy, 234–236
marine, 236–240
mitigation and adaptation, 240–245
geological eras
Anthropocene, 12, 228, 246–255
Holocene, 249, 250, 251
geological time, 249, 255
geophysical approaches. See geoengineering
geothermal energy, 234–236
Gerrard, Bill, 138, 146
Getty Museum, Blended Worlds, 323
Ghosh, Amitav, 322
glaciers, 236–237
Gleiser, Marcello, 95
global warming, 12, 93, 109, 172, 224, 225–227
and AI, 12, 258–259
and geoengineering, 229–245
theories and models, 112
see also Anthropocene; carbon sinks; climate change
Goddard, Stacie, 296
Goldman Sachs, 140
Goodman, Nelson, 325
Google, 256–257
Gould, Stephen Jay, 328
Gourevitch, Peter A., 169–170
governmental politics model, 179 see also October 1962 crisis
Grabel, Ilene, 124
grand strategy, 344
Grant, Adam, 306
Great Depression, lessons of, 172–173
greenhouse gases. See global warming
Greenspan, Alan, 11, 132, 149, 166, 167, 333
The Map and the Territory, 170–171
Gross, Bill, 135
Grove, Jairus, 86, 199, 200–201, 202
Grynaviski, Eric, 211
Gunitsky, Seva, 128
Gusterson, Hugh, 205–206
Haas, Richard, 273
Haldane, J. B. S., 327
Hall, Peter, 331–332
Hamas, 103–104
Hamilton, Scott, 225, 232
Haraway, Donna, 47, 97
Harrington, Cameron, 231
Harry Potter series, 53
Hayek, Friedrich, 60
Hayward, Clarissa, 276–277
Heclo, Hugh, 282
hedge funds, 151–152, 154, 159–160
hedges (risk-reducing trading), 11, 160, 313
Heidegger, Martin, 40–41, 78
Heisenberg, Werner, 81, 82, 86, 88, 357
and indeterminacy, 28, 87
on language as “re-presentation” and world-making, 83
hermeneutics, 40
high reliability theory, 189
Hilbert, David, 317
Hinkie, Sam, 284
Hinton, Geoffrey, 103, 262
Hironaka, Ann, 295–296
Hirschman, Albert, 60, 122–125, 234
on complexity, 129–130
on eclecticism, 332
on experimentation, 332
Hirshleifer, Jack, 137
historical contingency. See protean power
historical knowledge, and worldviews, 34
Hobbes, Thomas, 12, 13–15, 252, 297, 298–299, 328, 353
and control power, 304
and language, 299
on machines and minds, 260–261
and power, 274, 297–298
Hobson, John, 296
Hoffmann, Matthew, 245, 266
Hoffmann, Stanley, 287
Hollywood, 290
Holocene, 249, 250, 251
Homer-Dixon, Thomas, 227
house prices, 147–148 see also mortgages; securitization, as convention
human rights, 287–288
humanisms, 25–27, 126, 254
origins and claims of, 45
phenomenology, 186
see also Dilthey, Wilhelm; Newton, Isaac, and Newtonian humanism; para-humanism
humanities, 319, 324–325
Husserl, Edmund, 231
Hutchison, Martin, 140
hydraulic fracking. See geothermal energy
hydrocarbons, 291 see also fossil fuels
hydropower, Laos, 240
Hymans, Jacques, 76
imagination and play, 109–111, 132 see also creativity
IMF, and 1997 financial crisis, 69–70
imperfection, 351
improvisation, 286, 344
indeterminacy. See Heisenberg, Werner; quantum theory/mechanics
India, nuclear program, 196–197, 202
industrialization, 225, 249–250
inflation, 333–334
Ingold, Tim, 93
innovation, and power, 286
insurance industry, 18, 171–172, 230
intentionality, and moral luck, 340
international political economy, 167–168, 331
International Relations (IR), 9, 67, 89, 111–112
Asian, 353–354
and Newtonianism, 252 see also world politics
interpretation, 28–29, 57
Interspecies Internet, 268
investment banking, 159
and house prices, 152
and modern finance theory, 139
separation from commercial banking, 172–173
and VaR, 153–154
see also traders; Wall Street
Israel, 103–104, 233
Jabr, Ferris, 247
Jackson, Maggie, 21
Jackson, Michael, 292
Jackson, Patrick, 283–284
Jacobs, Robert, 215
James, William, 346–347, 354
Jasanoff, Sheila, 174
Kaag, John, 348
Kahneman, Daniel, 57
Kalberg, Stephen, 36, 38
Kant, Immanuel, 33, 341, 342
Kantz, Holger, 306, 307
Kaplan, Fred, 219
Kaplan, Robert, 17, 227
Katzenstein, Peter, 32
Kauffman, Stuart, 62, 356
Kay, John, 49–50, 56, 145
Kennan, George, 344
Kennedy, John F., 11, 178–179 see also October 1962 crisis
Kennedy, Robert, 308
Keohane, Robert, 4, 62, 89
Keynes, John Maynard, 54, 61, 110, 137, 145, 147, 156, 340
and conventions, 155–156
Khrushchev, Nikita, 11, 179 see also October 1962 crisis
Kierkegaard, S., 184–185
King, Gary, 62
King, Mervyn, 49–50, 56, 145
Kirshner, Jonathan, 24, 89, 145
Kissinger, Henry, 63, 65–66, 308
Klay, Phil, 354–355
Knight, Frank, 51–52, 110, 137
Knight, Les, 223
Kohn, Eduardo, 93
Kokotjalo, Daniel, 262
Kolbert, Elizabeth, 224, 226
Koselleck, Reinart, 255
Koyré, Alexandre, 43
Krebs, Ronald, 107
Kripal, Jeffrey, 320
Krippner, Greta, 17
Kroenig, Matthew, 194
Kubrick, Stanley, 183
Kuhn, Thomas, 41–42
Kundera, Milan, 18
Kurki, Milja, 251
Kurzweil, Ray, 222–223
Labatut, Benjamin, 82
labor markets, 69–70, 257 see also employment/unemployment
Lake, David, 168
Lang, Janet, 202
language, 13–15, 69–78, 326–327
and AI, 265–269
and banks/bankers, 167, 334–335
and Barad, 304
as control, 13–15
and the economy, 136–137
historical terms denoting risk and uncertainty, 17
and knowledge communities, 327–328
mathematical, 67
and metaphors, 72–73, 76–78
and the narrative turn in world politics, 106
and the October 1962 crisis, 202–208
and power, 296–304
and pragmatism, 347
and reason. See Nietzsche, Friedrich
and subjective probability, 57
theories and models, 112–113
see also discourse; large worlds; small worlds; stories; translation
Laos, 240
large language models (LLMs), 12, 265–267
large worlds
context, process and language in small worlds and, 64–65
experiments and experimentation, 117–118
and objective probabilities, calculation of, 50
Latour, Bruno, 96–97, 178, 246, 279, 307, 321
on War and Peace, 311
law, maritime, and geoengineering, 237–238
laws of nature, 252
Leamer, Edward, 139, 346
learning
by doing, 122, 123, 126, 213
potentiality through, 295
trial and error, 261
legal fictions, 110
Leibniz, 260–261
Leites, Nathan, 43
Lemoine, Blake, 267
Lepinay, Vincent, 160
Lévi-Strauss, Claude, 284
LGBT rights, 289
Liberalism, 38, 89, 127
Lilla, Mark, 354
Lindblom, Charles, 344
Lindsey, Lawrence, 152
Lipson, Hod, 262–263
literary fiction, and probability, 322
lived experience, 185–186
London Protocol, 237
Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM), 154, 159–160
lotteries, 140
Louth, Jonathan, 23
Lovelock, James, 247–248, 255–256
Lucas, Robert, 132
luck. See chance; moral luck
Luhmann, Niklas, 15
Machiavelli, Niccolò, 304–306
MacIntyre, Alasdair, 106
Mackenzie, Donald, 113–114
macroeconomics, 132, 145, 180–182
Malabou, Catherine, 260
mammals, and consciousness, 263
Mann, Geoff, 242
Margulis, Lynn, 247–248
marine geoengineering, 236–240
maritime trade, seventeenth century, and commodification of risk, 18
Marks, Michael, 77
Marshall Islands, nuclear tests, 215
Marvel, Kate, 226
Marx/Marxism, 38, 127, 335
mass extinctions, 227, 254
mass fire events, 197, 198
Mastroianni, Adam, 100
mathematical language, 67 see also quantum theory/mechanics
Mathematical Principles of Natural Philosophy (Newton), 22–23
Mayntz, Renate, 20
McCarthy, Cormac, 323
McCloskey, Deirdre, 78, 104
McConnell-Ginet, Sally, 70
McDermott, Rose, 183, 184, 208–209
McEwan, Ian, 271
McNamara, Robert, 117, 183–184, 187–188, 221
McNeill, John, 249
Mead, Walter Russell, 65–66
Mearsheimer, John, 51, 89, 127, 179–180
measurement, 117
meditative methods, 352
memory
memorization of lived experience, 185–186
and subjective probability, 57
Mercer, Jonathan, 212
Mermin, David, 83, 84, 133
Merton, Robert, 154
metaphors, 27–28, 72–73, 76–78
Microsoft, 257
migration, and power, 291–292
Milley, Mark, 218–219
Milne, A. A., 6
Misak, Cheryl, 54
mitigation and adaptation, and climate change, 240–245
Miyazaki, Hirokazu, 160
Modelers’ Hippocratic Oath, 170
models and theories
and climate change, 242–243
see also stories, theories and models as
monetary policy. See economy/economists; financial crises
Mongols, 254–255
Montesquieu, 223
Moody’s, 143, 152
moral hazard, 171–172
moral luck, 340–343
morality and benevolence, 130
Morgenthau, Hans, 29, 87–88, 117, 330
Morris, Charles, 156
mortgages
sub-prime, 144–145, 148
see also securitization, as convention
Moscow. See Soviet Union
Moyn, Samuel, 311
Muir, John, 97
multiplicities of risks and uncertainties, 332–333
Munroe, William Bennett, 87
Musil, Robert, 308
Musk, Elon, 43, 97–98
mysteries, 49–50
Nacol, Emily, 299
Nagel, Thomas, 341, 342
nanofacture, 324
narrative fallacy, 114–115
narratives. See stories
NASA, Jet Propulsion Lab, 323
national security crisis, and subjective probability, 55
NATO, Able Archer exercise, 217
natural gas production, and fracking, 234, 235
natural sciences
evolution of, 319
and methods of inquiry, 324–325
and para-humanism, 91
see also Dewey, John
Nature (science journal), 119–120
Nelson, Eshe, 334
neoliberalism, 17, 163–164
neo-positivism, 100
Neumann, John von, 86
Neustadt, Richard, 180
New Mexico, nuclear tests, 214–215
Newton, Isaac, and Newtonian humanism, 4, 10, 12, 21–24, 47–48, 126, 194
and changeability, 35
and complementarity, 328
and context, 66
and the laws of nature, 252
and Voltaire, 352
see also post-Newtonianism
Newtonians/Newtonianism, 43, 109, 126, 306
Nietzsche, Friedrich, 27–28, 45, 56, 77
non-instrumental action, 130
Nordhaus, William, 229, 230
normal accident theory, 189–191, 195
norms and rules, 302
Noro, Sei, 354
North Korea, and Trump, 219–220
Norton, Marcy, 90–91
nuclear politics, 2014 symposium on, 178
nuclear testing, legacy of, 214–215
nuclear weapons/deterrence theory, 11, 88, 216
accidents and near misses, 215–216
and the bargaining model, 209–214
and climate models, 242
and entangled processes, 12
fragility of, 220–221
October 1962 crisis, 11, 12
and Schelling, 180–182, 208
see also October 1962 crisis; Reagan, Ronald
nuclearity, geological, 198
numbers, power of, 354
numerical probability, 51
Nussbaum, Martha, 42, 341, 343
Nye, Joseph, 130–131, 273, 277–278
Obama, Barack, 273
objective probability, 51–54
oceans, 229, 236–240
October 1962 crisis, 11, 12, 117, 178–202
and bullshitting, 297
and language, 202–208
luck and chance in outcome of, 221
organizational and bureaucratic politics models of, 188–193
post-Newtonianism and nuclear politics, 193–202
octopi, 263
Oliver, John, 238–239
Open Economy Politics (OEP), 168–170
and large world uncertainty, 169
Open Science Conference, 233
OpenAI, 257, 258, 262
Oppenheimer, Robert, 30, 66, 207–208
organizational process model, 179 see also October 1962 crisis
Pagels, Heinz, 95
Paine, Thomas, 26–27
pandemics, global. See COVID
paradigms, 41–42, 43
para-humanism, 8, 46–47, 89–99, 228, 320
and the Anthropocene, 251
and climate change, 223–224, 226
and consciousness, 261
and global warming, 229
Paris Agreement, 2015, 240, 244, 245
Parsons, Talcott, 16
Patterson, Scott, 322
Pauli, Wolfgang, 82
Paulson, Hank, 141
Pauly, Lou, 18, 171–172, 184
Pavlov, Alexei, 247
Payne, Nick, 281
p(doom), 103, 262
Peirce, Charles Sanders, 346–347
Pelopidas, Benoit, 221, 223, 270
Pelosi, Nancy, 219
peoples’ revolutions, 272 see also French Revolution
Perimeter system (“Doomsday Machine”), 217–218
Perović, Slobodan, 82–83
Perroots, Leonard, 192
Peters, Benjamin, 24–25
Peters, Glen, 242
Petrov, Stanislav, 191–192
Phelps, Edmund, 147–148, 153
phenomenology, 186
Picasso, Pablo, 322
pictorial metaphors, 78
Pinker, Steven, 71–73, 269–270
Pistor, Katharina, 110
planetary history, and world history, 254
planetary intelligence. See technospheres
plankton, 232, 238
Platonic fold, 304
play. See imagination and play
policy, 343–346
political forecasting, 336–339
Pollock, Jackson, 323
polycrisis, 20, 135, 211
Pontzen, Andrew, 170
Pope, Alexander, 21–22
population growth, 243, 250
Posner, Richard, 150–151
possibilism. See Hirschman, Albert
post-Newtonianism, 8, 10, 24, 78–89, 312
concept of power, 12–13
Copenhagen interpretation of, 320
and nuclear deterrence, 195
and protean power, 278
Powell, Colin, 219
power law statistics, 53–54, 153, 209–210, 270, 312
Powers, Richard, 99
pragmatics of word use, 74
pragmatism, 340, 346–350
prediction industry
and sports. See baseball
predictions, scientific, 25
predictive large language models (LLMs), 12, 265–267
Prigogine, Ilya, 108–109
Primo, David, 62
Pritchett, Lant, 52
probabilistic laws, and the social world, 194
probability, 50–51, 81
numerical, 51
objective, 51–54
subjective, 54–60
see also QBism
process, 68–69
prophets, 37
protean power, 13, 273
case studies, 287–296
and control, 275–287
definition and overview, 274–275
and fortuna (chance), 304–308
and language, 296–304
Protestant work ethic, 37–38
Przeworski, Adam, 295
pundits, 335–336
Putin, Vladimir, 175 see also Ukraine war
QBism, 84–86
quantitative finance models, 139
quantum objects, and the measurement problem, 321
quantum probabilities, 194
quantum theory/mechanics, 7, 46, 66–67, 79–85, 321, 351
Bohr on, 300–301
complementarity and entanglement as central to, 6
and gravity, 306
and mathematical language, 67
and mystery, 40
and protean power, 277, 278
see also post-Newtonianism; QBism
Radchenko, Sergey, 221
Rajan, Raghuram, 150
Ramsey, Frank, 54–55, 56, 57
randomized controlled trials (RCTs), 118, 123
randomness, 53
Rathbun, Brian, 15–16, 42
rating industry, 141–145, 148
rational actor model, 179–182
rational expectations theory, 11, 138–139, 140, 312–313
allegories of, 162
and large world uncertainty, 153
and Open Economy Politics (OEP), 169
rationality
types of, 56
see also biases; decision theory
Rawlings, Hunter, 324
Reagan, Ronald, 206, 216
Realism, 89, 127
reason
and language. See Nietzsche, Friedrich
relationalism, 8, 199, 200–201
relativity theory, 95 see also Einstein, Albert
religions, 37, 38–39
religious language, and nuclear weapons/deterrence theory, 207–208
religious worldviews, 352–353, 355 see also specific religions
replication crisis, in research, 120, 121
Rescher, Nicholas, 7
Riley, John, 137
Rilke, Rainer Maria, 136
Rindzevičiūtė, Eglė, 25
risk, concept of, 16–17, 18 see also language
risk, perception of, and neoliberalism, 17
risk calculations, 51–52 see also investment banking
risk management, 18, 148
risk-uncertainty conundrum, 3, 13–21, 101–102, 331
and 2008 financial crisis, 140, 149
and adaptation to climate change, 243
and Bayesianism, 57
COVID epidemic, 17
everyday encounters with, 19
and geoengineering, 12
and international conflicts, 295–296
and international politics, 51
neglect of, 89
and the October 1962 crisis, 187
and political forecasting, 336–339
and subjective probability, 55, 56
and Wall Street trading, 11
see also stories, and the risk-uncertainty conundrum
Roberts, Chief Justice (of the Supreme Court, US), 70–71
Roberts, David, 235
Roberts, Siobhan, 235
Rogoff, Kenneth, 153
Romer, Christina and David, 334
Rorty, Richard, 73, 75, 326–327, 347
Rosato, Sebastian, 51, 89, 179–180
Rostow, Walt, 345
Rovelli, Carlo, 6–7, 80, 306
Rowling, J. K., 53
Rubin, Robert, 344
Ruggie, John, 43
Rumsfeld, Donald, 15
Russell, Stuart, 261, 262
Russia/Russians, 14, 15, 212–214 see also Soviet Union
Sabel, Charles, 244, 332
Sachs, Jeffrey, 14, 15
Sachs, Rainer, 17
Sagan, Scott, 178, 189–190, 193, 195
Sakharov, Andrei, 124
Salais, Robert, 149
salvation. See Protestant work ethic
Sanger, David, 207
Sarkissian, Armen, 88
“satisficing,” 141
Savage, Leonard, 3, 48–49
Saxenian, Anna Lee, 292
scenarios, 336
Schack, Rüdiger, 84
Schelling, Thomas, 11, 180–182, 183, 208, 237, 345
Scholes, Myron, 154
Schrödinger, Erwin, 5, 82, 86, 357
Schultze, Charles, 172
Schwartz, Peter, 336
Schweller, Randall, 282
science, technology, and society (STS)
and nuclear deterrence, 11–12
and post-Newtonianism, 198–199
science fiction, 322, 323
scientific prediction, 25
scientism, 29
Scoblic, Peter, 337
Scott, James, 167, 275, 295
Seabrooke, Leonard, 296
Searle, John, 24, 69
Sechser, Todd S., 194
secularization, 352–353, 355–356
securitization, as convention, 149–156
security studies, simple and complex models, 331
sensations, 27
Seth, Anil, 263, 264
Shah, Sonia, 269
Shiller, Robert, 147
Shimizu, Kosuke, 354
Shinn, James, 169–170, 172
Shleifer, Andrei, 14
Shultz, George, 88
Simard, Suzanne, 94
Simon, Herbert, 130, 141
simplification/simple models, 127–128
Skinner, B. F., 268
small worlds, 48–49
context, process and language in large worlds and, 64–65
and control power, 276
and objective probabilities, calculation of, 50
small world models, 108
“smart houses,” 258
Smith, Adam, 283
Smith, Captain E. J., 17–18
Smolin, Lee, 7, 95–96
Snow, C. P., 322
social constructivism, 100
social conventions, and risk management models, 155–156, 313
social insurance, 171
social media, 259
social movements, improvisation and creativity in, 292
social norms. See norms and rules
social sciences, 130–131
and Campbell, 125
evolution of, 319–320
experiments and experimentation, 115–116, 117
and Hirschman, 124–125
and Morgenthau, 87–88
and Newtonianism, 29
as pre-paradigmatic, 42
soft power, 277–278
solar energy, 247
solar panels, 233
solar radiation management, 232, 233
Solow, Robert, 129, 147
Somers, Margaret, 107
Sorenson, Ted, 203, 214
Soros, George, 146–147
South Korea, and 1997 “IMF crisis,” 69–70
sovereign power, 297–299
Soviet Union
collapse of, 2, 3–4
“Doomsday Machine,” 217–218
and nuclear weapons/deterrence theory, 12
and worldviews, 43
see also October 1962 crisis; Russia/Russians
spacetime, 95 see also Einstein, Albert
speculation (risk-seeking trading), 11, 160, 313
speech acts, 301
Spengler, Oswald, 85
sports
prediction industry. See baseball
states, modern, theories and models, 110
statistical laws, invention of, nineteenth century, 18
Stein, Janice Gross, 103, 212, 213
Stone, Oliver, 171
stories
experiments and experimentation, 115–126
the narrative turn, 105–108
and the risk-uncertainty conundrum, 126–131
theories and models as, 108–115
see also language
Storper, Michael, 149
subjective probability. See probability, subjective
sub-prime mortgages, 144–145, 148
Sullivan, Jake, 103–104
Summers, Lawrence, 14, 69, 145, 169
surveillance, and AI, 257
systems, collectively produced, 47
Taleb, Nassim, 114–115, 182, 210, 230–231, 304
Taylor, Charles, 355–356
technocratic mitigation approach, 241
technospheres, 255–261
technostrategic language, 206, 207
tennis, 280
terrorism, and counter-terrorism, 289–290, 295
Tetlock, Philip, 337, 338–339
theories and models. See stories, theories and models as
Thoreau, Henry David, 92
Thwaites Glacier, 236–237
time, 253–255
Titanic, 17–18
Tolstoy, Leo, 309–311
War and Peace, 1
Tomz, Michael, 119
Toska, Silvana, 295
traders, 159–161see also financial crises; investment banking
translation, 327–328
Trump, Donald, 31, 43, 218–220, 296–297
truth claims, 356 see also worldviews
Tuckett, David, 140–141
turbulence, 323–324
Turing, Alan, 261
Tversky, Amos, 57
Twitter, 127
UFOs, 98
Ukraine war, 212–214
uncertainty, 17, 110, 124, 185 see also language; power law statistics; risk-uncertainty conundrum
unemployment, 333–334
United Arab Emirates, geoengineering, 233
United States of America
and China, 207
and Cuba, 205
and the October 1962 crisis. See October 1962 crisis
presidential election, 2016, 31
storming of the Capitol, 218
and the Ukraine war, 212–214
see also Cold War
universal grammar. See Chomsky, Noam
uranium mining, 198
Urbinati, Nadia, 122
utility maximization, 54–55
vaccine skepticism, 48
Value-at-Risk (VaR), 153–155
Vance, J. D., 43
Verba, Sidney, 62
Vernadsky, Vladimir, 247
Victor, David, 244
Vietnam war, 345
Viniar, David, 140
Voltaire, 352
Wald, Matthew, 205
Wall Street, 11, 133, 313see also financial crises, 2008; investment banking
Wallace-Wells, David, 245
Wallerstein, Immanuel, 108–109
Waltz, Kenneth, 4, 67, 89, 111–112, 114, 128, 330
war casualties, 210
water contamination/depletion, 234, 235
water rights, and marine geoengineering, 239
“waterscape,” 239–240
weather modifications, and the Cold War, 231
Weber, Max, 16, 28–29, 33, 36–40, 279, 320, 350
Weinberg, Steven, 83
Weitzman, Martin, 229–230, 242
Welch, David, 228, 310–311
welfare state. See social insurance
Wells II, Linton, 13–14
Wendt, Alexander, 81, 86, 98
Western, Bruce, 330, 331
Western rationalism
Weber on, 36
see also Weber, Max
Weyland, Kurt, 295
White, Hayden, 77
Whitehead, Alfred North, 8, 354
Whitington, Jerome, 240
Williams, Bernard, 342
Wilmott, Paul, 170
Wilson, Benjamin, 181
Wilson, E. O., 317–319, 328, 351
Consilience, 325–326
Winnie the Pooh, 357 see also Milne, A. A.
Wittgenstein, Ludwig, 74, 309
Wohlleben, Peter, 93–94
Wolin, Sheldon, 298
Wood, Elisabeth, 295
Wootton, David, 23, 321
word prediction models. See predictive large language models (LLMs)
World Bank. See Summers, Lawrence
world history, and planetary history, 254
world politics, 43, 68–69, 80 see also International Relations (IR); social sciences
worldviews, 42–48, 99, 357
and the bargaining model of war, 211–212
and pragmatism, 347
scientific, 357
see also Dilthey, Wilhelm; large worlds; religious worldviews; secularization; small worlds; Weber, Max
Wuttke, Alexander, 120, 121
Yeltsin, Boris, 192
Yi, Wang, 103
Yogi Berra, 13, 19
Yong, Ed, 263
Zalasiewicz, Jan, 249
Zaloom, Caitlin, 160–161
Zanotti, Laura, 9
Zeimann, Benjamin, 205
Zelikow, Philip, 193–194
zoom calls, 257
Zubok, Vladislav, 221
Zvirzdin, Jamie, 105

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  • Index
  • Peter J. Katzenstein, Cornell University, New York
  • Book: Entanglements in World Politics
  • Online publication: 27 November 2025
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009675819.012
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  • Index
  • Peter J. Katzenstein, Cornell University, New York
  • Book: Entanglements in World Politics
  • Online publication: 27 November 2025
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009675819.012
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  • Index
  • Peter J. Katzenstein, Cornell University, New York
  • Book: Entanglements in World Politics
  • Online publication: 27 November 2025
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009675819.012
Available formats
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