Ndumo Game Reserve in South Africa, bordering Mozambique, is facing an existential threat and may not make its 100th anniversary in 2024. Ndumo, gazetted to protect the Vulnerable hippopotamus Hippopotamus amphibious, lies within the Maputaland–Pondoland Centre of Endemism and Biodiversity Hotspot. The northern and eastern borders were originally the Usuthu and Phongolo Rivers, respectively, but the Usuthu has since shifted course to flow through the Reserve. Mozambique now has claims on Reserve land north of the river, and Mozambicans have access to unfenced Reserve land.

An additional problem is illegal farming on the Phongolo floodplain in the eastern part of the Reserve. Ndumo protects 10% of the 13,000 ha floodplain, a major reason why Ndumo is a Ramsar Wetland of International Importance. This floodplain has the richest fish fauna of any river system in South Africa. Fishes breed there and migrate into the surrounding pans, where an estimated 500,000 kg are harvested annually, sustaining cultural traditions such as fonya basket fishing.

Ndumo is also an Important Bird Area, with over 400 species. Hippopotamuses breed there, and it is one of only three sanctuaries for wild Nile crocodiles Crocodylus niloticus in South Africa. The main crocodile nesting area is now disrupted by farming and gill-netting. This area formerly provided winter grazing for antelope species, the rhinoceros (now all gone) and hippopotamus, and also protects rare plants, including sand forest endemics on its fringes.

Reasons why the Mbangweni/Bhekabantu communities cut Reserve fences in 2008, and perhaps for the farming since then, revolve around a disputed land claim dating from 2000. There are allegedly two agreements: one confers co-management with benefits but no occupation, the other (which cannot be located) allegedly grants right to occupy Reserve land. Apparently, compensation remains unpaid. Exacerbated by poor relations between conservation authorities and communities—causes of which include historical evictions and violent encounters in poaching incidents—agreement on co-management has proved elusive.

Dispute resolution efforts have been made, and plans developed to support local livelihoods outside the Reserve. However, failure of one funded plan, continuing lack of resources, local disagreements, and political interference with re-establishing the fence mean conflict persists. There is a danger this long-running occupation will become accepted as the status quo.

In the face of political instability, apparent immunity for expanding illegal land conversion, local poverty and an untenable conservation management situation, the Reserve's future is threatened, with potentially negative consequences for other protected areas in KwaZulu-Natal Province. The conservation authority Ezemvelo KZN Wildlife has indicated these complex issues of encroachment require multi-agency intervention, and as such Ezemvelo has requested that Ndumo Game Reserve be identified as a priority for a national support and intervention programme.