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Motivated reasoning, fast and slow

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 December 2021

Camilla Strömbäck
Affiliation:
Department of Management and Engineering, Division of Economics, Linköping University, Linköping, Sweden
David Andersson
Affiliation:
Department of Management and Engineering, Division of Economics, Linköping University, Linköping, Sweden
Daniel Västfjäll
Affiliation:
Department of Behavioral Sciences and Learning, Division of Psychology, Linköping, Sweden Decision Research, Eugene, OR, USA
Gustav Tinghög*
Affiliation:
Department of Management and Engineering, Division of Economics, Linköping University, Linköping, Sweden Sweden National Center for Health Care Priority Setting, Division of Health Care Analysis, Linköping University, Linköping, Sweden
*
*Correspondence to: E-mail: gustav.tinghog@liu.se
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Abstract

Are people more likely to (mis)interpret information so that it aligns with their ideological identity when relying on feelings compared to when engaging in analytical thinking? Or is it the other way around: Does deliberation increase the propensity to (mis)interpret information to confirm existing political views? In a behavioral experiment, participants (n = 1207, Swedish sample) assessed numerical information concerning the effects of gender quotas and immigration either under time pressure or under no time pressure. To measure trait differences in cognitive sophistication, we also collected data on numeric ability. We found clear evidence of motivated reasoning when assessing both the effects of gender quotas on companies’ financial results and the effect of refugee intake on crime rates. Subjects who prioritized equality over liberty on the labor market were 13 percentage points less likely to correctly assess numerical information depicting that companies that used gender quotas when hiring made less profit. Subjects who classified themselves as ‘Swedes’ rather than ‘World citizens’ were 14 percentage points less likely to correctly assess numerical information depicting that crime rates decreased following immigration. Time pressure did not affect the likelihood to engage in motivated reasoning, while subjects with higher numeric ability were less likely to engage in motivated reasoning when analyzing information concerning refugee intake, but more likely to engage in motivated reasoning when analyzing information regarding the effect of gender quotas. Together these results indicate that motivated reasoning is primarily driven by individual differences in analytical thinking at the trait level and not by situational factors such as time pressure, and that whether motivated reasoning is primarily driven by analysis or feelings depends on the topic at hand.

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Article
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press
Figure 0

Figure 1. Experimental scenarios.

Figure 1

Figure 2. Proportion of participants assessing the different scenarios correctly, separated by ideological views. 95% confidence interval is included for each bar.

Figure 2

Figure 3. Percent of correct assessments by treatment, depending on the ideological view, separated by experimental condition. Note: The correct answer to the immigration scenario is that the crime rate decreases. The correct answer to the gender quota scenario is that the companies perform worse. N = 1211.

Figure 3

Figure 4. Percent of correct assessments by numeracy, depending on an ideological view.

Figure 4

Figure 5. The impact of ideological view on the likelihood to correctly assess respectively scenario conditioned on time pressure (A,B) and numeracy (C,D), respectively. Note: The error bars and dashed lines indicate 95% confidence intervals. (A,C) The results of the immigration scenario, where the correct answer is that more immigration decreases the crime rates. (B,D) The results of the gender quota scenario, where the correct answer is that companies that have implemented genre quotas perform worse.

Figure 5

Table 1. Linear probability regressions on the role of time pressure and numeracy.

Figure 6

Figure 6. The impact of ideological view on the likelihood to correctly assess respectively scenario, conditioned on numeracy. Note: The dashed lines indicate 95% confidence intervals. The sample is divided by treatment. (A,C) The results of the participants in the time pressure treatment, and (B,D) the results of the participants in the control group.

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