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Improving decision accuracy where base rates matter: The prediction of violent recidivism
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 04 February 2010
Abstract
Base rates are vital in predicting violent criminal recidivism. However, both lay people given simulated prediction tasks and professionals milking real life predictions appear insensitive to variations in the base rate of violent recidivism. Although there are techniques to help decision makers attend to base rates, increased decision accuracy is better sought in improved actuarial models as opposed to improved clinicians.
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