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Modelling the evolutionary dynamics of insecticide quantitative resistance in mosquito populations

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 May 2026

Sylvère Kezeta-Bondja
Affiliation:
Centre for Research in Infectious Diseases, Cameroon Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Sciences, University of Yaounde I, Yaoundé, Cameroon
Martin L. Mann-Manyombe
Affiliation:
Centre for Research in Infectious Diseases, Cameroon Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Sciences, University of Yaounde I, Yaoundé, Cameroon
Jean-Jules Tewa
Affiliation:
National Advanced School of Engineering, University of Yaounde I, Cameroon
Charles S. Wondji
Affiliation:
Centre for Research in Infectious Diseases, Cameroon Department of Vector Biology, Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine, Liverpool, UK
Ramsès Djidjou-Demasse*
Affiliation:
MIVEGEC, Univ. Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, Montpellier, France École Polytechnique de Thiès, Thiès, Sénégal
*
Corresponding author: Ramsès Djidjou-Demasse; Email: ramses.djidjoudemasse@ird.fr
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Abstract

Malaria remains a significant global health challenge, with sub-Saharan Africa bearing the majority of the burden. While vector control measures such as pyrethroid-based insecticidal nets and indoor residual spraying have significantly reduced malaria incidence, the emergence of insecticide resistance in Anopheles mosquito populations threatens these gains. Resistance develops through genetic mutations under prolonged selection pressure, complicating control efforts and necessitating a deeper understanding of its evolutionary dynamics. This study introduces a novel mathematical framework to investigate the emergence and spread of insecticide resistance in mosquito populations. By modelling insecticide resistance as a continuous (quantitative) trait influenced by multiple genes, we capture its variability and evolutionary transient dynamics. We propose an age-structured mosquito population model using integro-differential equations, where the resistance trait influences life-history parameters such as mortality and reproduction. Our approach provides new insights into how resistance emerges and spreads within mosquito populations over time. We analyse the model’s properties, including the existence of a unique maximal bounded semiflow, and derive conditions for the existence and stability of steady states. Through parameterization and simulations, we explore the transient and long-term dynamics of resistance evolution under different scenarios. The results offer valuable insights into the evolutionary mechanisms driving insecticide resistance and inform the design of sustainable vector control strategies.

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Papers
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2026. Published by Cambridge University Press
Figure 0

Figure 1. Flow diagram of the mosquito model. $E_j$ denotes the number of eggs laid by adult female mosquitoes $A_j$, $j=0,1$. Unexposed to insecticide: the number of new eggs with insecticide resistance level $x$ produced at time $t$ by unexposed AFMs ($A_0$) is $H(E(t))\int _{\Omega } \int _0^\infty m_{0}(x,y) r_{0}(a,y) A_{0}(t,a,y) {\mathrm {d}} a {\mathrm {d}} y$, where $m_{0}(x,y)$ is the probability for unexposed AFMs with insecticide resistance level $y$ to produce eggs with resistance level $x$, $r_{0}(a,y)$ is the egg-laying rate depending on the age $a$ and $H(E(t)$ is the function that regulates the growth of eggs. Eggs laid by unexposed AFMs ($E_0$) die at rate $\mu _{0}(x)$ and hatch at rate $\gamma _{0}(x)$. Hatched eggs laid by AFMs emerge at rate $\tau (x)$. A proportion $c(t)$ of mosquitoes emerging from the hatched eggs $E_0$ that have not yet encountered insecticides is exposed to the insecticide and subsequently transitions to the exposed AFM compartment ($A_1$). Conversely, a proportion $(1-c(t))$ of these mosquitoes escape exposure and progress to the unexposed AFM compartment ($A_0$). Unexposed AFMs die at rate $d_{0}(a,x)$. Exposed to insecticide: Similarly to the unexposed group, the number of new eggs with insecticide resistance level $x$ produced at time $t$ by exposed female mosquitoes ($A_1$) is given by $H(E(t))\int _{\Omega } \int _0^\infty m_{1}(x,y) r_{1}(a,y) A_{1}(t,a,y) {\mathrm {d}} a {\mathrm {d}} y$, where $m_{1}(x,y)$ is the probability for exposed female mosquitoes with insecticide resistance level $y$ to produce eggs with resistance level $x$ and $r_{1}(a,y)$ is the egg-laying rate. Eggs laid by exposed female mosquitoes ($E_1$) die at rate $\mu _{1}(x)$ and hatch at rate $\gamma _{1}(x)$. Mosquitoes emerging from the hatched eggs $E_1$ transition to the exposed AFM compartment ($A_1$) at a rate $\tau (x)$.

Figure 1

Table 1. Notations, state variables and parameters used in the model

Figure 2

Figure 2. The survival probability of mosquitoes population as a function of their age $a$ and resistance level $x$. (A) For mosquitoes unexposed to insecticide. (B) For mosquitoes exposed to insecticide. Here, the probability of surviving insecticide exposure during one day is $p_S=10^{-10}$.

Figure 3

Figure 3. Evolutionary dynamics with a constant and low insecticide exposure rate $c=0.2$. (A) The fitness functions. (B) The dynamics of AFMs. (C–E) The dynamics of AFMs for exposed and unexposed populations. (F–H) The dynamics of eggs laid by AFMs for exposed and unexposed populations. Here, the probability of surviving insecticide exposure during one day $p_S=10^{-10}$ and other parameters are given by Table 1.

Figure 4

Figure 4. Effect of the insecticide exposure rate $c$ on the relative gain from introducing the insecticide $\mathrm {r}_{\mathrm {gain}}$, and the time of resistance emergence $\mathrm {T}_{\mathrm {emg}}$. Here, $p_S=10^{-10}$ and other parameters are given by Table 1.

Figure 5

Figure 5. Rgain and Temg.

Figure 6

Figure 6. Evolutionary dynamics with a constant exposure rate $c=0.6$ and $p_S=0.1$. (A) The fitness functions. (B) The dynamics of AFMs. (C–E) The dynamics of AFMs for exposed and unexposed populations. (F–H) The dynamics of eggs laid by AFMs for exposed and unexposed populations.

Figure 7

Figure 7. The dynamics with the optimal exposure rate in a configuration of strong insecticidal effect with the probability of surviving insecticide exposure in a single day $p_S=10^{-10}$. (A) The optimal exposure rate. (B) The dynamics of AFMs.