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Using mobile phone data for epidemic response in low resource settings—A case study of COVID-19 in Malawi

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  09 August 2021

Dylan Green*
Affiliation:
Cooper/Smith, Washington, District of Columbia, USA Department of Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
Michael Moszczynski
Affiliation:
Cooper/Smith, Washington, District of Columbia, USA
Samer Asbah
Affiliation:
Cooper/Smith, Washington, District of Columbia, USA
Cassie Morgan
Affiliation:
Cooper/Smith, Washington, District of Columbia, USA
Brandon Klyn
Affiliation:
Cooper/Smith, Washington, District of Columbia, USA
Guillaume Foutry
Affiliation:
Cooper/Smith, Washington, District of Columbia, USA
Simon Ndira
Affiliation:
Cooper/Smith, Washington, District of Columbia, USA
Noah Selman
Affiliation:
Harris School of Public Policy, The University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois, USA
Maganizo Monawe
Affiliation:
Quality Management Division, Ministry of Health—Malawi, Lilongwe, Malawi
Andrew Likaka
Affiliation:
Quality Management Division, Ministry of Health—Malawi, Lilongwe, Malawi
Rachel Sibande
Affiliation:
Country Outreach, Digital Impact Alliance, United Nations Foundation, Washington, District of Columbia, USA
Tyler Smith
Affiliation:
Cooper/Smith, Washington, District of Columbia, USA
*
*Corresponding author. E-mail: greend7@uw.edu

Abstract

The COVID-19 global pandemic has had considerable health impact, including sub-Saharan Africa. In Malawi, a resource-limited setting in Africa, gaining access to data to inform the COVID-19 response is challenging. Information on adherence to physical distancing guidelines and reducing contacts are nonexistent, but critical to understanding and communicating risk, as well as allocating scarce resources. We present a case study which leverages aggregated call detail records into a daily data pipeline which summarize population density and mobility in an easy-to-use dashboard for public health officials and emergency operations. From March to April 2021, we have aggregated 6-billion calls and text messages and continue to process 12 million more daily. These data are summarized into reports which describe, quantify, and locate mass gatherings and travel between subdistricts. These reports are accessible via web dashboards for policymakers within the Ministry of Health and Emergency Operations Center to inform COVID-19 response efforts and resource allocation.

Information

Type
Translational Article
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press
Figure 0

Figure 1. Schematic of (MNO) network typology (left) and system infrastructure (right).

Figure 1

Figure 2. Example mass gathering daily report, May 20, 2020.

Figure 2

Figure 3. Example mass gathering event detail, Chimbiya, May 20, 2020.

Figure 3

Figure 4. Example of a nonrecurring, potential mass gathering, Mzuzu, May 10, 2020.

Figure 4

Figure 5. Map of modeled epidemic start weeks by TA. Darker color represents earlier COVID-19 spread and Epidemic Week 1 begins on April 26, 2020.

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Author comment: Using mobile phone data for epidemic response in low resource settings—A case study of COVID-19 in Malawi — R0/PR1

Comments

Dear Data and Policy Editors,

We wish to submit an original applied research manuscript for consideration of the call for papers on Telco Big Data Analytics for COVID-19. In partnership with Telekom Networks Malawi (TNM) and through support from the United Nations Foundation Digital Impact Alliance (DIAL), the Digital Health Division in Malawi’s Ministry of Health has engaged in an effort to produce rapid, meaningful reports to public health officials and the Emergency Operations Center in Malawi to support and inform the ongoing response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

To do so, we developed a daily pipeline of Call Detail Records (CDR) data which represent calls and text messages for over 1.5 million unique subscribers and totaling over 3 billion mobile phone events. Each day, an additional 12 million events are automatically processed in a secure AWS server environment and then the aggregated results are then pushed to Tableau Server reports which can be easily used by Ministry decision makers and the Emergency Operations Center in Malawi. The reports focus on potential mass gathering events, which could be potential hotspots of COVID-19 transmission. Presented data show the deviation from normal population density levels, as well as commonly traveled to areas following the potential mass gathering event. We also generate estimates of interchange mobility between sub-districts in Malawi to inform mathematical models which are also leveraged by the Public Health Institute of Malawi.

This study demonstrates a successful case study in developing a sustainable, rapid, and policy relevant data pipeline using big telecommunications data in an accessible and secure way for government officials seeking to mount a public health response to COVID-19 in a resource- and data-poor environment.

We thank you for your consideration and look forward to your feedback.

Review: Using mobile phone data for epidemic response in low resource settings—A case study of COVID-19 in Malawi — R0/PR2

Conflict of interest statement

I have in the past interacted academically with two of authors Tyler Smith and Brandon Klyn, but have not published with either of them. Also Brandon Klyn is currently studying on an Msc course on which I teach.

Comments

Comments to Author: This is a very interesting and well presented piece of work which exemplifies the potential to re-use routinely data, in this case mobile phone call records, to support public health interventions. The approach is particularly applicable to low and middle income settings where smartphone ownership and usage may be low.

My specific comments and suggestions on how the paper can be improved are listed below. As a general point there should be enough detail in the methodology to enable others to reproduce the methods and in some places I felt this was lacking, I have detailed those that I identified below.

- The authors should carefully check that all statements of fact are properly referenced e.g. p2 line 44 (re risk factors), p3 line 69 (re test positivity rates) and p 3 line 74 (smartphone apps) - this is not an exhaustive list

- I would suggest in line 52 reference is made to the new COVID-19 variant identified in SA and its potential to spread throughput the region.

- p3 line 87, add reference to the year (2020)

- pages 4 lines 89 – 91 - I would like to see you expand on this as it wasn’t clear how you used the Census data to validate the population size estimates from mobile phone subscribers

- A general point – may need to go in the limitations is related to the potential for differential use of phones i.e. some mobile users will make many more calls/texts than others and whether this could skew your interpretation of the data e.g. in line 129 you assume I think that all subscribers make equal use of their phones in order estimate pop size in a TA at a particular time.

- Line 99 – It wasn’t clear if IRB approval had been given for this particular study or for the previous work. Please reference the review board name and the approval reference number. Given the potential for aspects of this data to be misused to monitor the population or individuals for reasons other than health, I would like to see that there has been independent review of the research specifically carried out in this study.

Line 120 – Can you explain ‘salted-hashing’

Line 161 – Can you explain why each node was a cluster of cell towers and not just a single tower

The paragraph from line 165 – 170 wasn’t clear, the methodology needs expanding to clarify exactly what was done. My interpretation is that you create a super-set of all individual journeys between nodes and use this to show movement patterns. The assumption is that infection spread follows movement. This is somewhat true for a respiratory infectious disease but would also be dependent on individual behaviour and the contact between individuals. I would like to see this discussed in more detail so I can comment in detail on the validity of the approach.

Line 198 – What is meant by (on a rolling basis) ?

Line 198 – How did you remove marketing accounts ?

Line 199 – is the 1.5 million an average over time ?

Line 200 – You should justify your statement that the CDR data was highly correlated to population. Did you calculate a correlation coefficient ?

Line 255 – 256 – I didn’t understand this sentence please expand to explain how you estimated epidemic start dates. Also Fig 5 has no key, title or access labels. If you are aiming to show the epidemic spread this would be much better as a tiled series of snapshots at for example monthly intervals. Is the colour representing number of infections ?

I would be interested to know (though accept that this may be beyond the scope of this paper) the extent to which this data has been used by the Malawian MoH to direct their response to the epidemic.

Review: Using mobile phone data for epidemic response in low resource settings—A case study of COVID-19 in Malawi — R0/PR3

Conflict of interest statement

I do not have a COI for this paper.

Comments

Comments to Author: This paper makes a valuable contribution to our understanding of how CDR data can be used to model the potential spread of communicable disease and the effectiveness of policies aimed at restricting mobility. It provides useful detail on some of the technical systems that need to be in place to support such a project and on how the team addressed concerns related to privacy and potential bias stemming from the data used.

The one area where I would have liked to see more detail is on exactly how health authorities in Malawi ended up using this data and how much value they derived from it. Is the information from the CDRs now an indispensable input into their decision-making or is it less important? Answering these questions could make for a useful follow-on briefing.

Less substantively, it seemed odd that the "competing interest statement," "funding statement," and "data availability statement" were floating in the middle of the paper rather than put at the end.

Recommendation: Using mobile phone data for epidemic response in low resource settings—A case study of COVID-19 in Malawi — R0/PR4

Comments

No accompanying comment.

Decision: Using mobile phone data for epidemic response in low resource settings—A case study of COVID-19 in Malawi — R0/PR5

Comments

No accompanying comment.

Author comment: Using mobile phone data for epidemic response in low resource settings—A case study of COVID-19 in Malawi — R1/PR6

Comments

Dear Data and Policy Editors,

We wish to submit an original applied research manuscript for consideration of the call for papers on Telco Big Data Analytics for COVID-19. In partnership with Telekom Networks Malawi (TNM) and through support from the United Nations Foundation Digital Impact Alliance (DIAL), the Digital Health Division in Malawi’s Ministry of Health has engaged in an effort to produce rapid, meaningful reports to public health officials and the Emergency Operations Center in Malawi to support and inform the ongoing response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

To do so, we developed a daily pipeline of Call Detail Records (CDR) data which represent calls and text messages for over 1.5 million unique subscribers and totaling over 3 billion mobile phone events. Each day, an additional 12 million events are automatically processed in a secure AWS server environment and then the aggregated results are then pushed to Tableau Server reports which can be easily used by Ministry decision makers and the Emergency Operations Center in Malawi. The reports focus on potential mass gathering events, which could be potential hotspots of COVID-19 transmission. Presented data show the deviation from normal population density levels, as well as commonly traveled to areas following the potential mass gathering event. We also generate estimates of interchange mobility between sub-districts in Malawi to inform mathematical models which are also leveraged by the Public Health Institute of Malawi.

This study demonstrates a successful case study in developing a sustainable, rapid, and policy relevant data pipeline using big telecommunications data in an accessible and secure way for government officials seeking to mount a public health response to COVID-19 in a resource- and data-poor environment.

We thank you for your consideration and look forward to your feedback.

Recommendation: Using mobile phone data for epidemic response in low resource settings—A case study of COVID-19 in Malawi — R1/PR7

Comments

No accompanying comment.

Decision: Using mobile phone data for epidemic response in low resource settings—A case study of COVID-19 in Malawi — R1/PR8

Comments

No accompanying comment.