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Selecting Out of “Politics”: The Self-Fulfilling Role of Conflict Expectation

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  16 February 2024

ERIC GROENENDYK Open the ORCID record for ERIC GROENENDYK [Opens in a new window] ,
YANNA KRUPNIKOV ,
JOHN BARRY RYAN Open the ORCID record for JOHN BARRY RYAN [Opens in a new window]  and
ELIZABETH C. CONNORS Open the ORCID record for ELIZABETH C. CONNORS [Opens in a new window]
ERIC GROENENDYK*
Affiliation:
University of Memphis, United States
YANNA KRUPNIKOV*
Affiliation:
University of Michigan, United States
JOHN BARRY RYAN*
Affiliation:
University of Michigan, United States
ELIZABETH C. CONNORS*
Affiliation:
University of South Carolina, United States
*
Corresponding author: Eric Groenendyk, Professor, Department of Political Science, University of Memphis, United States, grnendyk@memphis.edu.
Yanna Krupnikov, Professor, Department of Communication and Media, University of Michigan, United States, yanna@umich.edu.
John Barry Ryan, Associate Professor, Department of Communication and Media, Department of Political Science, University of Michigan, United States, ryanjb@umich.edu.
Elizabeth C. Connors, Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, University of South Carolina, United States, connors4@mailbox.sc.edu.
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Abstract

In recent decades, the term “politics” has become almost synonymous with conflict. Results from eight studies show that individuals averse to conflict tend to select out of surveys and discussions explicitly labeled as “political.” This suggests that the inferences researchers draw from “political” surveys, as well as the impressions average Americans draw from explicitly “political” discussions, will be systematically biased toward conflict. We find little evidence that these effects can be attenuated by emphasizing deliberative norms. However, conflict averse individuals are more willing to discuss ostensibly political topics such as the economy, climate change, and racial inequality, despite reluctance to discuss “politics” explicitly. Moreover, they express greater interest in politics when it is defined in terms of laws and policies and debate is deemphasized. Overall, these findings suggest the expectation of conflict may have a self-fulfilling effect, as contexts deemed explicitly “political” will be composed primarily of conflict seekers.

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Type
Research Article
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 119 , Issue 1 , February 2025 , pp. 40 - 55
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2024. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of American Political Science Association

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