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A LOADING-DEPENDENT MODEL OF PROBABILISTIC CASCADING FAILURE

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 January 2005

Ian Dobson ,
Benjamin A. Carreras  and
David E. Newman
Ian Dobson
Affiliation:
Electrical & Computer Engineering Department, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, WI 53706, E-mail: dobson@engr.wisc.edu
Benjamin A. Carreras
Affiliation:
Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831, E-mail: carrerasba@ornl.gov
David E. Newman
Affiliation:
Physics Department, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK 99775, E-mail: ffden@uaf.edu
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Abstract

We propose an analytically tractable model of loading-dependent cascading failure that captures some of the salient features of large blackouts of electric power transmission systems. This leads to a new application and derivation of the quasibinomial distribution and its generalization to a saturating form with an extended parameter range. The saturating quasibinomial distribution of the number of failed components has a power-law region at a critical loading and a significant probability of total failure at higher loadings.

Information

Type
Research Article
Information
Probability in the Engineering and Informational Sciences , Volume 19 , Issue 1 , January 2005 , pp. 15 - 32
Copyright
© 2005 Cambridge University Press

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