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Understanding posttraumatic stress trajectories in adolescent females: A strength-based machine learning approach examining risk and protective factors including online behaviors

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  30 May 2022

Ann-Christin Haag*
Affiliation:
Department of Counseling and Clinical Psychology, Columbia University Teachers College, New York, NY, USA
George A. Bonanno
Affiliation:
Department of Counseling and Clinical Psychology, Columbia University Teachers College, New York, NY, USA
Shuquan Chen
Affiliation:
Department of Counseling and Clinical Psychology, Columbia University Teachers College, New York, NY, USA
Toria Herd
Affiliation:
College of Health and Human Development, Department of Human Development and Family Studies, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA
Sienna Strong-Jones
Affiliation:
College of Health and Human Development, Department of Human Development and Family Studies, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA
Sunshine S.
Affiliation:
College of Health and Human Development, Department of Human Development and Family Studies, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA
Jennie G. Noll
Affiliation:
College of Health and Human Development, Department of Human Development and Family Studies, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA
*
Corresponding author: Ann-Christin Haag, email: ah3784@tc.columbia.edu.
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Abstract

Heterogeneity in the course of posttraumatic stress symptoms (PTSS) following a major life trauma such as childhood sexual abuse (CSA) can be attributed to numerous contextual factors, psychosocial risk, and family/peer support. The present study investigates a comprehensive set of baseline psychosocial risk and protective factors including online behaviors predicting empirically derived PTSS trajectories over time. Females aged 12–16 years (N = 440); 156 with substantiated CSA; 284 matched comparisons with various self-reported potentially traumatic events (PTEs) were assessed at baseline and then annually for 2 subsequent years. Latent growth mixture modeling (LGMM) was used to derive PTSS trajectories, and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression was used to investigate psychosocial predictors including online behaviors of trajectories. LGMM revealed four PTSS trajectories: resilient (52.1%), emerging (9.3%), recovering (19.3%), and chronic (19.4%). Of the 23 predictors considered, nine were retained in the LASSO model discriminating resilient versus chronic trajectories including the absence of CSA and other PTEs, low incidences of exposure to sexual content online, minority ethnicity status, and the presence of additional psychosocial protective factors. Results provide insights into possible intervention targets to promote resilience in adolescence following PTEs.

Information

Type
Regular Article
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution and reproduction, provided the original article is properly cited.
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2022. Published by Cambridge University Press
Figure 0

Table 1. Types of other self-reported potentially traumatic events by study group

Figure 1

Table 2. Psychosocial risk and protective factors including online behaviors used in the LGMM and LASSO regression analyses

Figure 2

Table 3. Demographic and descriptive information for the full sample and by study group

Figure 3

Figure 1. Results of latent growth mixture modeling. Observed means and 95% CIs of the four PTSS trajectories are presented across time. PTSS = posttraumatic stress symptoms. T1–T3 = time 1–3.

Figure 4

Table 4. Fit indices and entropies for latent growth mixture models

Figure 5

Table 5. Means and SDs of PTSS in the four identified trajectories

Figure 6

Figure 2. Distributions of females in the three study groups across the four latent PTSS trajectories. CSA = childhood sexual abuse; DMC = demographically matched comparisons; CMC = census-matched comparisons.

Figure 7

Table 6. Multinomial logistic regression analyses for study groups predicting trajectories (controlling for covariates)

Figure 8

Table 7. CSA characteristics of females in the resilient and chronic PTSS trajectories

Figure 9

Figure 3. Variable importance of predictors retained in the LASSO logistic regression model. Bars filled in black present negative coefficients, i.e., females being less likely to be in the resilient PTSS trajectory. Bars filled in gray display positive coefficients, i.e., females being more likely to be in the resilient PTSS trajectory. PTE = potentially traumatic events; CSA = childhood sexual abuse.

Figure 10

Table 8. Coefficients for psychosocial predictors including online behaviors in LASSO logistic regression analyses