Hostname: page-component-77f85d65b8-6c7dr Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2026-04-15T03:35:56.277Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Secular stagnation? A new view on Brazil’s growth in the 19th century

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  25 September 2025

Edmar Lisboa Bacha ,
Guilherme A. Tombolo  and
Flávio Rabelo Versiani Open the ORCID record for Flávio Rabelo Versiani [Opens in a new window]
Edmar Lisboa Bacha
Affiliation:
IEPE Instituto de Estudos de Política Econômica/Casa das Garças, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Guilherme A. Tombolo
Affiliation:
IEPE Instituto de Estudos de Política Econômica/Casa das Garças, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Flávio Rabelo Versiani*
Affiliation:
Departamento de Economia, Universidade de Brasília, Brasilia, Brazil
*
Corresponding author: Flávio Rabelo Versiani; Email: versiani@unb.br
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

The established economic historiography asserts that Brazil’s per-capita GDP stagnated in the 19th century and that it grew extremely slowly in the period of the monarchy (1822–1889). We argue that these conclusions are based on inadequate methods, insufficient statistical evidence, and disregard for available historical evidence. Building on the methodology followed by one of us in a previous article, with the use of new databases, and a reasoned exploration of alternatives, our best estimate is that over the 1820–1900 period, Brazil’s per-capita income grew at a trend rate of 0.9% per year, a performance like Western Europe and other Latin America countries. Only a sharp economic contraction at the end of the period dulled Brazil’s performance in the 19th century.

Resumen

Resumen

La historiografía económica establecida afirma que el PIB per cápita de Brasil se estancó en el siglo XIX y que creció muy lentamente en el período de la monarquía (1822-1889). Argumentamos que estas conclusiones se basan en métodos inadecuados, evidencia estadística insuficiente y desconsideración de la evidencia histórica. A partir de una metodología previamente adoptada por uno de los autores, con el uso de nuevas bases de datos y una exploración razonada de alternativas, nuestra mejor estimación es que durante el período 1820–1900 el ingreso per cápita de Brasil creció a una tasa tendencial de 0,9% anual, un desempeño similar al de Europa Occidental y otros países de América Latina. Fue solo una fuerte contracción al final del período lo que debilitó el desempeño de Brasil en el siglo XIX.

Keywords

per-capita GDP growthBrazil19th centuryMaddison Projectcrecimiento del PIB per cápitaBrasilsiglo XIXProyecto MaddisonN16O11O47O54

Information

Type
Articles/Artículos
Information
Revista de Historia Economica - Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History , Volume 43 , Issue 2 , September 2025 , pp. 279 - 308
Check for updates
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2025. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of Instituto Figuerola de Historia y Ciencias Sociales, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid.

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Article purchase

Temporarily unavailable

References

Abreu, M.P., Lago, L.R.C. and Villela, A.A. (2022) A Passos Lentos: Uma História Econômica Do Brasil Império. São Paulo: Edições 70.Google Scholar
Absell, C.D. and Tena-Junguito, A. (2016) Brazilian export growth and divergence in the tropics during the nineteenth century. Journal of Latin American Studies 4(48), 677–706.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Absell, C.D. and Tena-Junguito, A. (2018) The Reconstruction of Brazil’s Foreign Trade Series: 1821-1913. Revista de Historia Económica/Journal of Latin American Economic History 36(1), 87–115. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0212610917000143CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Alden, D. (1984) Late Colonial Brazil, 1750-1808. Bethell, L ed, The Cambridge History of Latin America. Vol. II. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 601–660.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Antonil, A.J. (1982[1711]) Cultura E Opulência Do Brasil. Belo Horizonte: Editora Itatiaia.Google Scholar
Affonseca, Jr. L. (1919): O custo de vida na cidade do Rio de Janeiro. Rio de Janeiro: Ministério da Agricultura.Google Scholar
Bacha, E. and Bonelli, R. (2016) Coincident growth collapses: brazil and Mexico since the early 1980s. Novos Estudos Cebrap 35(2), 151–181. https://doi.org/10.25091/S0101-3300201600020009CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bacha, E.L. (1992) Política Brasileira Do Café: uma Avaliação Centenária. Martins, M and Johnston, E, 150 Anos de Café, 2nd. Rio de Janeiro: Salamandra, 13–132.Google Scholar
Bacha, E.L., Tombolo, G.A., and Versiani, F.R. (2023) Reestimating Brazil’s GDP Growth from 1900 to 1980. Revista Brasileira de Economia 77(3), e132023. https://periodicos.fgv.br/rbe/article/view/88204/84349CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bai, J. and Perron, P. (2003) Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models. Journal of Applied Econometrics 18(1), 1–22. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.659CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barickman, B.J. (1998) A Bahian Counterpoint; Sugar, Tobacco, Cassava, and Slavery in the Recôncavo, 1780–1860. Stanford: Stanford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barro, R.J. and Ursúa, F. (2008) Macroeconomic Crises since 1870. Brooking Papers on Economic Activity 39(1), 255–350. https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.0.0000CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barros, A.R. (2016) Roots of Brazilian Relative Economic Backwardness. London: Academic Press.Google Scholar
Bergad, L.W. (1999) Slavery and the Demographic and Economic History of Minas Gerais, Brazil, 1720-1888. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bertola, L., Castelnovo, C. and Willebald, H. (2012) Income distribution in Brazil, 1870-1920. Unpublished paper presented to the XVII Jornadas Anuales de Economía. Montevideo, Uruguay: Banco Central del Uruguay. 19 and 20 November, 25p. iees03j3551112.pdf (bcu.gub.uy)Google Scholar
Bethell, L. ed. (1989) Brazil, Empire and Republic: 1822-1930. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bickham, T. (2012) The Weight of Vengeance: The United States, the British Empire, and the War of 1812. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Bolt, J., Inklaar, R., De Jong, H., and Van Zanden, J.L. (2018) Rebasing ‘Maddison’: New Income Comparisons and the Shape of Long-Run Economic Development. Groningen, Netherlands: University of Groningen. GGDC Research Memorandum: 174.Google Scholar
Bolt, J., and Van Zanden, J.L. (2013) The First Update of the Maddison Project. Groningen, Netherlands: University of Groningen. Maddison Project Working Paper WP-4.Google Scholar
Bolt, J. and Van Zanden, J.L. (2020) Maddison Style Estimates of the Evolution of the World Economy. A New 2020 Update. University of Groningen. Maddison Project Working Paper WP-15.Google Scholar
Brazil. (1917): Annuario Estatistico do Brazil 1908–1912 1º ano, vol. II, Economia e Finanças. Rio de Janeiro: Typographia de Estatistica.Google Scholar
Brown, L.V. (1986) Internal Commerce in a Colonial Economy: Rio de Janeiro and Its Hinterland, 1790–1822. PhD Dissertation. University of Virginia.Google Scholar
Buescu, M. (1973) 300 Anos de Inflação. Rio de Janeiro: APEC.Google Scholar
Calógeras, J.P. (1960[1910]) A Política Monetária Do Brasil. Rio de Janeiro: Companhia Editora Nacional.Google Scholar
Carrara, A.A. (2022) As Finanças Do Estado Brasileiro: 1808-1898. Belo Horizonte: Fino Traço.Google Scholar
Catão, L. (1992) A new wholesale price index for Brazil during the period 1870-1913. Revista Brasileira de Economia 46(4), 519–533.Google Scholar
Contador, C. and Haddad, C. (1975) Produto real, moeda e preços: a experiência brasileira no período 1861-1970. Revista Brasileira de Estatística 36, 407–440.Google Scholar
Costa Filho, M. (1963) A Cana-de-açúcar Em Minas Gerais. Rio de Janeiro: Instituto do Açúcar e do Álcool.Google Scholar
Dean, W. (1969) The Industrialisation of São Paulo, 1880–1945. Austin: University of Texas Press.Google Scholar
CatÃo, L. (1992): “A new wholesale price index for Brazil during the period 1870-1913”. Revista Brasileira de Economia 46 (4), pp. 519-533.Google Scholar
Dean, W. (1997) A Industrialização Durante A República Velha. Holanda, SB ed, História Geral da Civilização Brasileira. V.8, ed. Rio de Janeiro: Bertrand Brasil, 249–283.Google Scholar
Eisenberg, P. L. (1974): The sugar industry of Pernambuco. 1840-1910: modernization without change. Los Angeles: University of California Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Eltis, D. (1987) Economic Growth and the Ending of the Transatlantic Slave Trade. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Engerman, S.L. (1975) A reconsideration of southern economic growth, 1770-1860. Agricultural History 49, 343–361.Google Scholar
Fragoso, J.L. (1992) Homens de Grossa Aventura: Acumulação E Hierarquia Na Praça Mercantil Do Rio de Janeiro (1790–1830). Rio de Janeiro: Arquivo Nacional.Google Scholar
Franco, G.H.B. (1991) A Década Republicana: O Brasil E A Economia Internacional – 1888/1900. Rio de Janeiro: IPEA.Google Scholar
Franco, G.H.B. (2014) A Primeira Década Republicana. Abreu, MP ed, A Ordem Do Progresso: Dois Séculos de Política Econômica No Brasil, 2nd. Rio de Janeiro: Elsevier, 29–44.Google Scholar
Frankel, J.A. (1982) The 1807–1809 Embargo Against Great Britain. Journal of Economic History 42(2), 291–308. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022050700027443CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Furtado, C. (1963) The Economic Growth of Brazil; A Survey from Colonial to Modern Times. Transl. Aguiar, RW and Drysdale, EC. Berkeley: University of California Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goldsmith, R.W. (1986) Brasil, 1850–1984: Desenvolvimento Financeiro Sob Um Século de Inflação. São Paulo: Harper & Row.Google Scholar
Gorenstein, R. (1993) Comércio E Política: o Enraizamento de Interesses Mercantis Portugueses No Rio de Janeiro (1808–1830). Martinho, LM, and Gorenstein, R. Negociantes E Caixeiros Na Sociedade da Independência Rio de Janeiro: Secretaria Municipal de Cultura, 125–255.Google Scholar
Haddad, C.L. (1978) Crescimento Do Produto Real No Brasil, 1900-1947. Rio de Janeiro: Editora FGV.Google Scholar
Haddad, C.L. (1980) Crescimento Econômico Do Brasil, 1900-1976. Neuhaus, P ed, Economia Brasileira: Uma Visão Histórica. Rio de Janeiro: Editora Campus, 21–43.Google Scholar
Haddad, P., and Versiani, F. R. (1990). “Índice de Preços”. In: IBGE (1990): Estatísticas históricas do Brasil: séries econômicas, demográficas e sociais de 1550 a 1988. 2ª. ed. rev. e atual. do v. 3 de Séries estatísticas retrospectivas. Rio de Janeiro: IBGE, pp. 144-150.Google Scholar
Hall, M.M. (1969) The Origins of Mass Immigration in Brazil, 1871–1914. PhD Dissertation. Columbia University.Google Scholar
Herranz-Loncán, A. (2014) Transport technology and economic expansion: the growth contribution of Railways in Latin America. Revista de Historia Económica /Journal of Latin American Economic History 32(1), 13–45. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0212610913000177CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Holanda, S.B.D. (1985) Metais E Pedras Preciosas. Holanda, SB ed, História Geral da Civilização Brasileira. V.2. São Paulo: Difel, 259–310.Google Scholar
Holloway, T.H. (1974) Migration and Mobility; Immigrants as Labourers and Landowners in the Coffee Zone of São Paulo, Brazil, 1886–1934. PhD Dissertation. University of Wisconsin.Google Scholar
IBGE - Fundação Instituto Brasileiro De Geografia E Estatística (1986) Repertório Estatístico Do Brasil: Quadros Retrospectivos (Separata Facsimilar Do Anuário Estatístico Do Brasil, Ano V, 1939/40). Rio de Janeiro: IBGE.Google Scholar
IBGE - Fundação Instituto Brasileiro De Geografia E Estatística (1990) Estatísticas Históricas Do Brasil: Séries Econômicas, Demográficas E Sociais de 1550 a 1988. 2ª. ed. rev. e atual. do v. 3 de Séries estatísticas retrospectivas Rio de Janeiro: IBGE.Google Scholar
Instituto De Pesquisa EconÔmica Aplicada/Ipeadata (2022): Dados macroeconômicos e regionais. http://ipeadata.gov.br/Default.aspxGoogle Scholar
Klein, H.S. (1978) The Middle Passage: Comparative Studies in the Atlantic Slave Trade. Princeton: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Klein, H.S. (1999) The Atlantic Slave Trade. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Leff, N.H. (1982) Underdevelopment and Development in Brazil. Volume 1: Economic Structure and Change, 1822–1947. London: Allen and Unwin.Google Scholar
Lenharo, A. (1979) As Tropas da Moderação: O Abastecimento da Corte Na Formação Política Do Brasil, 1800–1842. São Paulo: Ed. Símbolo.Google Scholar
Lobo, L., Canavarros, O., Feres, Z., Gonçalves, S. and Madureira, L.B. (1971) Evolução dos preços e do padrão de vida no Rio de Janeiro, 1820-1930 - resultados preliminares. Revista Brasileira de Economia 25(4), 235–265.Google Scholar
Luna, F.V. and Klein, H.S. (2018) An Economic and Demographic History of São Paulo, 1850-1950. Stanford: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Maddison, A. (1995) Monitoring the World Economy 1850–1992. Paris: Development Centre Studies, OECD.Google Scholar
Maddison, A. (2001) The World Economy: A Millennial Perspective. Paris: Development Centre Studies, OECD.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maddison, A. (2003) The World Economy; Historical Statistics. Paris: Development Centre Studies, OECD.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maddison, A. (2010) Maddison Database. https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/historicaldevelopment/maddison/releases/maddison-database-2010. Accessed 15 Aug 2023.Google Scholar
Maddison, A. and Associates, (1992) The Political Economy of Poverty, Equity, and Growth: Mexico and Brazil. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Maddison Project Database (MPD) (2013) https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/historicaldevelopment/maddison/releases/maddison-project-database-2013. Accessed 26 Jul 2023.Google Scholar
Maddison Project Database (MPD) (2018) https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/historicaldevelopment/maddison/releases/maddison-project-database-2018. Accessed 26 July 2023.Google Scholar
Maddison Project Database (MPD) (2020) https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/historicaldevelopmen/maddison/releases/maddison-project-database-2020. Accessed 26 July 2023.Google Scholar
Mackinnon, J. G. (1996): “Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests”. Journal of Applied Econometrics 11(6), pp. 601-618.3.0.CO;2-T>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Manchester, A.K. (1972[1933]) British Preeminence in Brazil: Its Rise and Decline. New York: Octagon Books.Google Scholar
Mackinnon, J. G., Haug, A. A. and Michelis, L. (1999): “Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration”. Journal of Applied Econometrics 14(5), 563-577.3.0.CO;2-R>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Martins, R.B. (2018) Crescendo Em Silêncio. Belo Horizonte: ICAM/ABPHE.2018Google Scholar
Martins Filho, A. and Martins, R.B. (1983) Slavery in a Nonexport Economy: nineteenth-Century Minas Gerais Revisited. Hispanic American Historical Review 63(3), 537–568. https://doi.org/10.1215/00182168-63.3.537CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mattoso, K.M.Q. (1978) Bahia: A Cidade Do Salvador E Seu Mercado No Século XIX. São Paulo: Hucitec.Google Scholar
Maxwell, K.R. (1973) Conflicts and Conspiracies: Brazil and Portugal, 1750–1808. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Merrick, T.W. and Graham, D.H. (1979) Population and Economic Development in Brazil: 1800 to the Present. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Menezes, A. M. F. et al. (2010): 20 anos da Secex e 200 anos de comércio exterior. Brasília, DF: Ministério do Desenvolvimento, Indústria e Comércio Exterior-MDIC.Google Scholar
Miller, J.C. (1986) Slave Prices in the Portuguese Southern Atlantic, 1600–1830. Lovejoy, PE ed, Africans in Bondage: Studies in Slavery and the Slave Trade. Madison: University of Wisconsin Press, 43–77.Google Scholar
Miller, J.C. (1988) Way of Death; Merchant Capitalism and the Angolan Slave Trade, 1730–1780. Madison: University of Wisconsin Press.Google Scholar
Mortara, G. (1941) Estudos sobre a utilização do censo demográfico para a reconstituição das estatísticas do movimento da população do Brasil. Revista Brasileira de Estatística 3(5), 39–89.Google Scholar
Onody, O. (1960) A Inflação Brasileira 1820–1958. Rio de Janeiro: n.pGoogle Scholar
Pantaleão, O. (1993) A Presença Inglesa. Holanda, SB ed, História Geral da Civilização Brasileira. V.3. São Paulo: Ed. Bertrand Brasil, 64–99.Google Scholar
PelÁez, C. M., and Suzigan, W. (1981): História monetária do Brasil. Brasília: Editora Universidade de Brasília.Google Scholar
Prado, C. Jr. (1971[1942]) The Colonial Background of Modern Brazil. Transl. Macedo, S. Berkeley: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Prados De La Escosura, L. (2009) Lost Decades? Economic Performance in Post-Independence Latin America. Journal of Latin American Studies 41(2), 279–307. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022216X09005574CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Randall, L.A. (1977) A Comparative Economic History of Latin America, 1500-1914. Volume 3: Brazil. New York: Columbia University Press.Google Scholar
Sen, P.K. (1968) Estimates of the Regression Coefficient based on Kendall’s tau. Journal of the American Statistical Association 33(324), 1379–1389. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.1968.10480934CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Slavevoyages Trans-Atlantic Slave Trade Database. https://www.slavevoyages.org. Accessed 18 Aug 2023.Google Scholar
Summerhill, W.R. (2003) Order against Progress: Government, Foreign Investment, and Railroads in Brazil, 1854-1913. Stanford: Stanford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Suzigan, W. (1986) Indústria Brasileira: Origem E Desenvolvimento. São Paulo: Editora Brasiliense.Google Scholar
Theil, H. (1950) A Rank-invariant Method of Linear and Polynomial Regression Analysis. Reprinted Henri Theil’s Contributions to Economics and Econometrics. New York: Springer, 1950, 345–381.Google Scholar
Tombolo, A.G. (2013) O PIB Brasileiro Nos Séculos XIX E XX: Duzentos Anos de Ciclos Econômicos. Unpublished M.A. Thesis. Universidade Federal do Paraná. https://acervodigital.ufpr.br/bitstream/handle/1884/29988/R%20-%20D%20-%20GUILHERME%20ALEXANDRE%20TOMBOLO.pdf?sequence=1. Accessed Aug 23 2023.Google Scholar
Tombolo, A.G. and Sampaio, A.V. (2013) O PIB brasileiro nos séculos XIX e XX”. Universidade Federal do Paraná. Revista de Economia 39(3), 181–216. https://doi.org/10.5380/re.v39i3.31283CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Versiani, F.R. (1979) Industrial Development in an ‘Export’ Economy: the Brazilian Experience Before 1914. Working Papers 2. London: Institute of Latin American Studies, University of London.Google Scholar
Versiani, F.R. (2023) Industrial Development and Government Protection: issues and Controversies, Circa 1840–1930. Bielschowsky, R, Boianovsky, M and Coutinho, MC eds, A History of Brazilian Economic Thought from Colonial Times through the Early 21st Century. London: Routledge, 132–154.Google Scholar
Versiani, F. R. (2023): “Industrial Development and Government Protection: Issues and Controversies, Circa 1840–1930”. In: Bielschowsky, R., Boianovsky, M. and Coutinho, M. C. (eds.). A History of Brazilian Economic Thought from Colonial Times through the Early 21st Century. London: Routledge, pp. 132-154.Google Scholar
Vieira, D.T. (1947) A evolução do sistema monetário brasileiro. Revista de Administração 1(2), 3–385.Google Scholar
Villela, A.A. (2020) The Political Economy of Money and Banking in Imperial Brazil, 1850-1889. Cham, Switzerland: Palgrave Macmillan.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Villela, A.V. and Suzigan, W. (1973) Política de Governo E Crescimento da Economia Brasileira, 1889-1945. Rio de Janeiro: IPEA/INPES.1973Google Scholar
Wilcox, R.R. (2001) Fundamentals of Modern Statistical Methods: Substantially Improving Power and Accuracy. New York: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-3522-2CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wright, G. (2022) Slavery and the Rise of the Nineteenth-century American Economy. Journal of Economic Perspectives 36(2), 123–148. https://doi.org/10.1257/jep.36.2.123CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zemella, M. (1990) O Abastecimento da Capitania de Minas Gerais No Século XVIII. São Paulo: Hucitec- Edusp.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: File

Bacha et al. supplementary material

Bacha et al. supplementary material
Download Bacha et al. supplementary material(File)
File 158.7 KB