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The Accuracy of Microtargeted Policy Positions

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  12 October 2016

Kyle Endres
Kyle Endres*
Affiliation:
Duke University
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Abstract

Identifying voters who share policy positions with the candidates has become an important component of modern political campaigns as they rely on microtargeted estimates to guide targeting decisions. Using survey data and microtargeted estimates from the 2012 election, I conduct one of the first independent examinations of the accuracy of microtargeting. The estimates are the most accurate in Florida, a state that requests information on the race of voters when they register and has party registration. The estimates are less accurate in the other battleground states that do not collect as much information. The accuracy rates range from 36% to 82% depending on the issue and state.

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Articles
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PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 49 , Special Issue 4: Elections in Focus , October 2016 , pp. 771 - 774
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2016 

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References

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