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The Political Economy Model: Presidential Forecast for 2024

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  15 October 2024

Charles Tien Open the ORCID record for Charles Tien [Opens in a new window]  and
Michael S. Lewis-Beck
Charles Tien
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, Hunter College & The Graduate Center, CUNY, United States
Michael S. Lewis-Beck
Affiliation:
Department of Political Science, University of Iowa, United States
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Abstract

Our political economy model, as it has come to be called, has offered up forecasts of the American presidential election outcome since the early 1980s. The model, based on referendum theory, as measured by the job performance of the president and the economy (1948 to the present), yields a forecast from data available in the summer of the election year. We consider alternative specifications of this parsimonious model, examining the possible effects of other economic measures, Covid-19, and incumbency advantage on forecasting. The current point estimate of the core political economy model predicts the Democratic candidate will receive 48 percent of the two-party popular vote, which translates into a narrow Electoral College loss for the incumbent party. This point forecast, however, comes with a considerable amount of uncertainty. There is an 11-point spread around our point estimate, which effectively means we have a horserace on our hands, with both horses close to the finish line.

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Article
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PS: Political Science & Politics , Volume 58 , Issue 2: Forecasting the 2024 US Election , April 2025 , pp. 248 - 252
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2024. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of American Political Science Association

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References

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