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Predicting suitable habitat for the Critically Endangered African wild ass Equus africanus in the Danakil Desert of Eritrea

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 July 2023

Redae T. Tesfai*
Affiliation:
School of Animal, Plant and Environmental Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, Wits 2050, South Africa
Francesca Parrini
Affiliation:
School of Animal, Plant and Environmental Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, Wits 2050, South Africa
Patricia D. Moehlman
Affiliation:
IUCN Species Survival Commission Equid Specialist Group, EcoHealth Alliance, New York, USA
Nicholas E. Young
Affiliation:
Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, NESB, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, USA
Paul H. Evangelista
Affiliation:
Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory, NESB, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, USA
*
(Corresponding author, rteclai13@gmail.com)

Abstract

The Critically Endangered African wild ass Equus africanus is one of the most threatened equids, with fewer than 400 individuals persisting in the Danakil Desert (Eritrea), and fewer than 600 globally. To effectively conserve the species, it is essential to determine the extent of available suitable habitats and understand the environmental factors that most influence its current distribution. During 2016–2019 we observed African wild asses, recorded their locations during both the wet and dry seasons and analysed the bioclimatic data and topography using the maximum entropy species distribution model. Distance from water sources and precipitation of the driest month were the top predictors of suitable habitat for the dry season, whereas seasonal temperature variability and precipitation during the warmest quarter were the top predictors for the wet season. Model performances were high, with area under the curve values of 0.97 and 0.98 for the dry and wet seasons, respectively. In the Danakil Desert of Eritrea, the extent of optimal habitat for African wild asses is estimated to be 130 km2 in the dry season and 739 km2 in the wet season, with a potential range of 11,000 km2 for both seasons. Our model results also indicate that in the dry season 89 km2 of the Messir Plateau is optimal habitat, and the entire plateau area of 124 km2 provides optimal habitat during the wet season. These findings provide wildlife management authorities with substantive information and rationale for the establishment of a protected area on the Messir Plateau for African wild asses in Eritrea.

Information

Type
Article
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2023. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of Fauna & Flora International
Figure 0

Fig. 1 Topographical map of the study area in the Danakil Desert of Eritrea, with locations of permanent water sources and settlements.

Figure 1

Fig. 2 Habitat suitability models for the African wild ass Equus africanus in the Danakil Desert of Eritrea (Fig. 1) during the (a) dry and (b) wet seasons. We generated the models using Maxent software and field survey data collected during 2002–2006 and 2016–2019.

Figure 2

Fig. 3 The relative contribution of predictor variables to the maximum entropy model for the (a) dry and (b) wet season habitat suitability models for the African wild ass in the Danakil Desert of Eritrea.