1 Szporluk, Roman, “Reflections on Ukraine after 1994: The Dilemmas of Nationhood,” Harriman Review 7, nos. 7-9 (1994): 2 Google Scholar.

2 Election results from the Central Election Commission (CEC) of Ukraine. Some agencies have reported irregularities in the 1999 election, but according to the U. S. Department of State, Country Report on Human Rights Practices: Ukraine (Washington, D.C., 2000), “almost all observers agreed that the election results reflected the will of the electorate“ (1). It is possible that the CEC results do not reflect the exact percentages of votes cast by the Ukrainian population. However, 63 percent of our respondents reported voting for Kuchma, 32 percent for Symonenko, and 4 percent against all. The official CEC results are 56 percent for Kuchma, 38 percent for Symonenko, and 3.4 percent against all. Allowing for postelection identification with the winner, the CEC results appear quite reasonable, despite allegations of vote fraud.

3 The Directorate-General European Commission, Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs, European Economy. Supplement C, Economic Reform Monitor (Luxembourg, 1996).

4 Kinder, Donald R. and Kiewiet, D. Roderick, “Economic Discontent and Political Behavior: The Role of Personal Grievances and Collective Economic Judgments in Congressional Voting,” American Journal of Political Science 23, no. 3 (August 1979): 495–527 CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Feldman, Stanley, “Economic Self-interest and Political Behavior,” American Journal of PoliticalScience 26, no. 3 (August 1982): 446–66CrossRefGoogle Scholar; James H. Kuklinski and Darrell M. West, “Economic Expectations and Voting Behavior in United States House and Senate Elections,“ American Political Science Review 75, no. 2 (June 1981): 436-47; Miller, Arthur H. and Wattenberg, Martin P., “Throwing the Rascals Out: Policy Performance Evaluations of Presidential Candidates,” American Political Science Review 79, no. 2 (June 1985): 359–72CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

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7 Lewis-Beck, Michael S., Economics and Elections: The Major Western Democracies (Ann Arbor, 1988)Google Scholar; Powell, G. Bingham and Whitten, Guy D., “A Cross-National Analysis of Economic Voting: Taking Account of the Political Context,” American Journal of Political Science 37, no. 2 (May 1993): 391–414 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

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9 Bojcun, Marco, “The Ukrainian Parliamentary Election in March-April 1994,” Europe-Asia Studies 47, no. 2 (March 1995): 234 CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Sarah Birch, “The Ukrainian Parliamentary and Presidential Elections of 1994,” Electoral Studies 14, no. 1 (March 1995): 93-99.

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15 For a recent discussion of these attitudes, see Finifter, Ada and Mickiewicz, Ellen, “Redefining the Political System of the USSR: Mass Support for Political Change,” AmericanPolitical Science Review 86, no. 4 (December 1992): 857–74Google Scholar; and Miller, Arthur H., Reisinger, William M., and Hesli, Vicki L., “Understanding Political Change in Post-Soviet Societies: A Further Commentary on Finifter and Mickiewicz,” American Political Science Review 90, no. 1 (March 1996): 153–66CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

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19 See, for example, James Gibson, “Political and Economic Markets: Changes in the Connections between Attitudes toward Political Democracy and a Market Economy within the Mass Culture of Russia and Ukraine, “Journal of Politics 58 (November 1996): 954-84; Miller, Reisinger, and Hesli, “Understanding Political Change in Post-Soviet Societies“; Finifter and Mickiewicz, “Redefining the Political System of the USSR.“

20 This measure, however, is quite strongly related to geography. Western Ukrainians were far more likely to feel proud of the flag (Pearson’s r = .29). In addition, those in the western part of the country were also more likely to vote for Kuchma (Pearson’s r =.26). Nonetheless, election results indicated that even in eastern oblasts where Symonenko managed to win, he did so by very narrow margins.

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23 We hypothesize that these centrists are probably leaners, because few of them adopted centrist positions on the issue scales addressed in the following analysis.

24 In making this calculation, we followed Page, Benjamin I. and Jones, Calvin C., “Reciprocal Effects of Policy Preferences, Party Loyalties, and the Vote,” American PoliticalScience Review 73, no. 4 (December 1979): 1071–89CrossRefGoogle Scholar. We subtracted respondents’ selfplacement on the communist-democrat scale from their placement of Kuchma and Symonenko on the same measure. The resulting distance measures (one for Kuchma, one for Symonenko) range from 0 to 6 (using absolute values for the differences obtained) where 0 means that respondents place the candidate and themselves at exactly the same place on the communist-democrat scale and 6 indicates that respondents place themselves and the candidate at opposite extremes on this continuum. Respondents were not asked to place Symonenko on the left-right scale, so we only have distance measures for Kuchma on this continuum. Both candidates, however, were placed on the communist-democrat scale.

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26 Richard Rose, “Mobilizing Demobilized Voters in Post-Communist Societies” (paper presented at the Workshop on Public Opinion and Party Formation in Post-Communist and Authoritarian Democracies, Drake University, Des Moines, Iowa, 1995), 5; Ordeshook, Peter C., “Reexamining Russia: Institutions and Incentives,” Journal of Democracy 6 (April 1995): 46–60 CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Rutland, Peter, “Has Democracy Failed in Russia?” National Interest 38 (Winter 1994-95): 3–12 Google Scholar. Marco Bojcun, however, is an important exception. In his “The Ukrainian Parliamentary Election in March-April 1994,” Europe-Asia Studies 47, no. 2 (March 1995): 229-49, he notes that although less-informed voters might not have differentiated parties on ideological grounds at that time, parties were beginning to gain supporters and momentum as early as 1994.

27 Miller, Arthur H. and Klobucar, Thomas F., “The Development of Party Identification in Post-Soviet Societies,” American Journal ofPolitical Science 44, no. 4 (October 2000): 667–86CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Miller, Arthur H., Erb, Gwyn, Reisinger, William M., and Hesli, Vicki L., “Emerging Party Systems in Post-Soviet Societies: Fact or Fiction?” Journal of Politics 62 (1999): 455–90CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

28 For a complete discussion of these conflict axes, see Miller and Klobucar, “The Development of Party Identification in Post-Soviet Societies.“

29 Lewis-Beck, Economics and Elections.

30 We chose to use Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression analysis here for two reasons. First, we use a trichotomized dependent variable that includes those who voted “against all” as the middle category. We felt that it was important to retain these voters in the analysis along with those who voted for Kuchma and Symonenko. Second, we feel that OLS results are more easily understood by a greater number of readers. Logistic regression results, using a dichotomized dependent variable, are equally persuasive, yielding a Cox and Snell R2 of .59 and predicting the correct vote for 95 percent of Kuchma’s voters and 85 percent of Symonenko’s voters (for an overall correct prediction rate of 91 percent). Those variables that are statistically significant predictors of the Kuchma vote in table 10, model 4 are also significant, with the same relative strength, in our logistic model.

31 Miller and Klobucar, “The Development of Party Identification in Post-Soviet Societies“; Miller, Arthur H., Klobucar, Thomas F., and Reisinger, William M., “Establishing Representation: Mass and Elite Political Attitudes in Ukraine,” in Wolchik, Sharon L. and Zviglyanich, Volodymyr, eds., Ukraine: The Search for a National Identity (Lanham, Md., 1999), 213–35Google Scholar; Grigory Nemiria, “Regionalism: An Underestimated Dimension of State-Building,“ in Wolchik and Zviglyanich, eds., Ukraine, 183-97; and Bojcun, “The Ukrainian Parliamentary Election in March-April 1994.“

32 Campbell, Convese, Miller, and Stokes, The American Voter.

33 Bqjcun, “The Ukrainian Parliamentary Election in March-April 1994“; Birch, “The Ukrainian Parliamentary and Presidential Elections of 1994“; Szporluk, “Reflections on Ukraine after 1994.“