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Issues for the next generation of base rate research

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 February 2010

Jonathan J. Koehler
Jonathan J. Koehler
Affiliation:
Department of Management Science and Information Systems, Graduate School of Business, University of Texas at Austin, Austin TX 78712. koehler@mail.utexas.edu
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Abstract

Commentators agree that simple conclusions about a general base rate fallacy are not appropriate. It is more constructive to identify conditions under which base rates are differentially weighted. Commentators also agree that improving the ecological validity of the research is desirable, although this is less important to those interested exclusively in psychological processes. The philosophers and ecologists among the commentators offer a kinder perspective on base rate reasoning than the psychologists. My own perspective is that the interesting questions (both psychological and normative/prescriptive) are best answered through empirical studies that use real-world performance standards.

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Behavioral and Brain Sciences , Volume 19 , Issue 1 , March 1996 , pp. 41 - 53
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Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1996

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